Welsh Labour has its biggest lead over rival parties in Wales in nearly a decade, a new poll has suggested. A poll conducted last week by YouGov showed Mark Drakeford's party would get 44% of the constituency vote in Wales and 38% in the list vote if a Senedd election were held today.
The figures are an increase on September's poll when the party had 40% and 37% respectively and project a 27% lead over their Welsh Conservative rivals. It is the largest lead Welsh Labour has had in the polls since 2013 when they were projected to be on 46% of the vote, 29% ahead of the Tories. It also improves on their 39.9% showing in last year’s Senedd election and suggests the party, which already has 30 seats in Cardiff Bay, would win more than half the seats in the Senedd for the first time if an election were held now.
The poll, which surveyed 1,042 adults in Wales about their voting intentions between November 25 and December 1, indicated falling support for the Welsh Conservatives who would see support fall to 17% in the constituency vote and 16% in the list. YouGov polls this year have shown a consistent drop in support for the main opposition party in Wales, which received 26% and 25% of votes respectively at last year's Senedd election.
Read more: New Welsh General Election poll shows Labour with biggest lead in a decade and Tory support crumbling
The poll projects that Plaid Cymru – which slipped down to third place in 2021 despite electing 13 MSs, one more than in the 2016 election – would become the main opposition on 20% and 23% of the vote in the constituency and list. Adam Price's party received 20.3% and 20.7% in last year's election but has since been embroiled in scandal after WalesOnline reported allegations of a toxic work culture. Mr Price admitted in November that he was "concerned" by the claims which include reports of staff members being “scared” to report concerns and frustrations that complaints are not properly investigated.
The poll figures may not be relevant by the next election in Wales with the Senedd aiming to introduce a number of changes before the upcoming poll in 2026. They include expanding the Senedd to 96 members by creating 16 multi-member wards each electing six Senedd Members through proportional representation and a closed proportional list meaning voters would be voting for a party rather than an individual. You can read more about the changes here.
Constituency voting intention November 25 - December 1 (change from September's poll):
Welsh Labour: 44% (+4)
Welsh Conservatives: 17% (-3)
Plaid Cymru: 20% (-2)
Welsh Lib Dems: 6% (no change)
Reform UK: 7% (+2)
Other: 7% (no change)
List voting intention November 25 - December 1 (change from September's poll):
Welsh Labour: 38% (+1)
Welsh Conservatives: 16% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+2)
Welsh Lib Dems: 4% (-1)
UKIP: 2% (no change)
Reform UK: 4% (no change)
Other: 15% (+2)
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