A NEW poll has suggested that Holyrood would retain a pro-indy majority despite a drop in support for the SNP following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, and an investigation into party finances.
The data from YouGov, which polled 1,032 Scottish adults on their voting intention at the next Holyrood election between April 17-20, found that the SNP’s constituency vote share has dropped five points since March to 38%, the joint-lowest since the independence referendum in 2014.
However, the poll also indicates a pro-independence majority of one seat remains, as the Scottish Greens would see an increase of six MSPs.
Projecting YouGov 17-20 Apr into seats (changes vs 9 - 13 Mar / 2021 election): SNP ~ 51 (-12 / -13) Labour ~ 34 (+4 / +12) Conservative ~ 20 (+2 / -11) Green ~ 14 (+4 /+6) Lib Dem ~ 10 (+2 / +6) (Projection caveats: https://t.co/f88QQRxkf7) pic.twitter.com/cWMLrkhpuz
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) April 20, 2023
Support for Scottish independence remains the same as it was in last month’s YouGov poll, with 46% saying they would vote Yes and 54% No.
The poll shows that Labour’s constituency vote share of 30% is the highest it has achieved since the 2014 local council elections.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party would take 16% of the vote and the Liberal Democrats 10%.
The regional list vote was similar, with the SNP’s five-point dip to 30% putting the party on the lowest share of the vote it has held since just before the referendum, and representing a 10-point drop since late 2022.
Labour’s 26% is similar to other polls from this year, although still represents a turnaround for the party from its low point of 11% in mid-2019.
Westminster voting intention has seen less of an impact, with results for all parties in the same margin of error to the previous poll in March.
The SNP would take 37% of the vote (-2), while Labour is on 28% (-1) and the Tories 17% (+1).
Following the resignation of Sturgeon in February, and the election of Humza Yousaf as the new First Minister, half of Scots (53%) see the SNP as a divided party, compared with 29% who see it as a united one.
The poll also found that only 19% of Scots believe Yousaf is doing well, with 44% who believe he is doing badly.
One in three Scots are currently unsure how he is doing as First Minister.
The poll also found that four in 10 people believe that Yousaf will do a worse job than his predecessor Sturgeon, with only 9% thinking he will be better.
Among 2019 SNP voters, only 32% think that he is doing well.
One in three believe he is doing a good job, but 28% say he is doing a bad one. Four in 10 (40%) answered “don’t know”.
