Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied at 49 percent nationally as the number of undecided voters shrinks with just nine days left to Election Day, a new poll shows.
One percent are set to back a third-party or independent candidate with just one percent left undecided, according to Emerson College polling.
The executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, said in a statement that the electorate is “divided.”
“In this poll, independents report breaking for Trump 49 percent to 46 percent — a reversal from 2020, where they reported voting for Biden by about ten points,” he added. “Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by ten points, 54 percent to 44 percent, underperforming Biden’s support in 2020.”
Survey respondents were asked when they made up their minds, with 80 percent saying they made their decision more than a month ago, 10 percent said they decided during the last month, and seven percent said in the last week.
Among voters under the age of 30, 62 percent made their decision more than a month ago, 20 percent in the last month, and 12 percent in the last week.
Fifty percent of survey respondents said they believe Trump will win the election, while 49 percent said they think Harris will come out victorious.
Among likely voters, 53 percent disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance, with 41 percent saying they approve.
Voters are split down the middle – 50-50 – as to whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Harris. Meanwhile, 49 percent have a favorable view of Trump and 51 percent have an unfavorable view.
The economy is the top issue for voters, according to the Emerson College poll, at 45 percent, with immigration coming in second, 14 percent list it as their top issue. The same number say threats to democracy are their main priority, seven percent said access to abortion, six percent said healthcare, and four percent were mostly worried about crime.
When asked which presidential candidate was more down-to-earth, half said Harris, and 43 percent said Trump. Seven percent said neither.
“While women voters break for Harris by about ten, they think she is the more down-to-earth candidate by a 20-point margin, 57 percent to 37 percent,” Kimball added. “Men think Trump is more down-to-earth by eight points, 50 percent to 42 percent.”
Similarly, the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris and Trump tied at 48 percent.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million ballots but lost in the Electoral College to Trump. In 2020, Biden managed to win the Electoral College after narrow wins in several swing states even as he won the popular vote by about seven million.
Harris and Trump remain neck-and-neck in the polls after some of the most chaotic months in recent American political history. Two momentous debates, the first of which led to the departure of Biden from the race, and two assassination attempts, one of which saw Trump get struck in the ear by the gunman’s bullet.
In the last Times/Siena poll earlier this month, Harris was ahead, 49 to 46 percent.
