An astonishing new polling suggests the Conservative Party could be wiped out in the North East at the next election - with voters in our region also found to be more likely than those anywhere else to feel Rishi Sunak and his team don't understand the true impact of the cost-of-living crisis.
The poll - commissioned by campaign group 38 Degrees and carried out by Survation - has also found that 43% of people in the North East feel the cost-of-living crisis has damaged their mental health. Heartbreakingly, the model predicts that 34% have felt unable to heat their home over the last month in the region.
The poll predicts that even longstanding Conservative seats in Berwick-upon-Tweed and Hexham would be taken by the Labour Party should a general election take place tomorrow. It uses the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model to predict constituency-by-constituency results in an election - in 2019 this model got 94% of parliamentary races right.
The research also shows that an estimated 18% of people have been unable to make rent at least once in the last six months, with 40% of people worried they won't be able to pay their rent or mortgage over the coming year. With the Government's budget due next week, 38 Degrees is urging the Government to do more to protect the public from soaring inflation.
If the Government doesn't act, the group warns, then the forecasted wipeout may well come to pass at the next election which is due to be in 2024.
The polling is available at a local level, and shows how a worrying 50% of people in Central Newcastle say their mental health has been worsened by the cost of living crisis. Meanwhile in South Shields, 52% are concerned about paying rent or their mortgages this year and 40% worry about having to turn to food banks.
In Durham City, 22% of people have missed a rent payment in the last six months, while 45% of people in Sunderland Central have felt unable to turn the heating on when they've wanted to over the last month.
And worryingly for the Government, trust in the Conservative Party in so-called "red wall" seats - won in 2019 for the first time - is low. In Bishop Auckland, 71% of people don’t believe the Tories understand the impact of the cost of living crisis. In Blyth Valley the figure rises to 76%.
Matthew McGregor, CEO at 38 Degrees, said: "A Government that has abandoned people in the face of a devastating economic crisis cannot expect to keep the support of the public. People across the North East are making their dissatisfaction with the Government’s response to the cost of living crisis known, as our new poll shows.
"At 38 Degrees, we campaign for a Britain that’s fairer for everyone, but there’s nothing fair about a cost of living crisis that has left families unable to heat their homes or feed their kids while energy companies rake in multi-billion pound profits. This poll shows the North East has had enough, and won’t take any more excuses from the Government."
Mr McGregor said the Spring Budget could be the "last chance" for the Conservative Party to regain the trust of people in the North East. He said the Government needed to ditch the planned energy price hike, fix the "broken" energy system, and expand free school meals for children.
Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation, who conducted the polling said: "These findings again lay bare the extent to which the public is being squeezed by grocery, energy and housing price inflation but also that the public believe the Government is out of touch in terms of even understanding the problems that households currently face."
A government spokesperson said: "We recognise the pressures households are facing with rising prices, which is why we’re committed to halving inflation by the end of the year.
"We recognise the impact that rising prices are having at home, which is why we are providing significant support over this year and next - worth on average £3,500 per household. This includes holding down energy bills, uplifting benefits, increasing the National Living Wage, and delivering hundreds of pounds in direct cash payments to millions of vulnerable households.
"In addition, we are also investing an extra £2.3 billion a year into the expansion and transformation of mental health services in England by 2023/24, so that an additional two million people can get the NHS-funded mental health support they need."
To see the precise figures by constituency and read stories from people affected, at costoflivingmap.com/data
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