The Conservative party would be almost entirely wiped out in Wales in a general election, according to a new poll which emphatically shows how far the party has fallen. A YouGov poll for WalesOnline, released ahead of St David's Day, shows the Conservatives' share of the vote has slipped to just 19%, while Labour's share has surged from 41% in 2019 to 53% now.
Among people aged 24-50, the Tory share of the vote is just 7%. A series of crises, allegations of sleaze and government mismanagement have engulfed the Conservative party since the election of 2019, in which time the UK has had three different Prime Ministers.
According to the Wales Governance Centre, the YouGov poll shows that based on uniform swing and current boundaries the Conservative party would keep just two Welsh seats, the lowest number since they got no seats in the 2001 election. These two graphics shows the difference between the current projected results and the 2019 election:
The poll's key findings are:
- In Wales, the Conservative vote share has slipped to just 19%. This is similar to what they got in 1997 and lower than 2001 when they won no seats in Wales. In 2019 they won 14 seats (a gain of 6) with 36.1% of the vote.
- Of the 2019 Tory voters, 19% have gone to Labour with a significant 12% going to Reform.
- Labour's vote share has surged over 12 percentage points, from 41% in 2019 to 53%.
- 28% of people who voted Plaid in 2019 now intend to vote Labour.
- The Tory vote is very low among working age people under 50. Among those aged 24-49, just 7% would vote Conservative if there was an election tomorrow.
- Geographically, Labour are utterly dominant in the Cardiff and Valleys areas, where 62% of people intend to vote for them.
We will be releasing further results from the poll, which show current levels of support in Wales for independence and the monarchy, this week.
Things could be even worse for the the Tories
The only remaining Conservative seats based on this poll would be Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire, with the Tories only managing to hold on to the former by a very narrow margin. It is technically too close to call, with the Lib Dems within a couple of percentage points but on strict number the Conservatives edge it. As this is based on uniform swing of votes and assumes no tactical voting, that scenario may well not play out in reality. The seat has changed hands recently in a by-election in August 2019 after Tory MP Chris Davies pleaded guilty to claiming false expenses. It was subsequently won by the Lib Dems but reclaimed by the Tories in the general election that December.
This graph shows general election voting intention in Wales:
And here are those figures in a table*:
Labour: 53%
Conservative: 19%
Plaid Cymru: 12%
Reform UK: 8%
Lib Dem: 4%
Green: 3%
Other: 1%
Under the current polling four former secretaries of state for Wales (Simon Hart, David Jones, Alun Cairns, and Stephen Crabb) and the current secretary of state, David TC Davies, would lose their seats. Though the voting percentage for the Conservatives is actually lower than in 2001, when they got no seats in Wales, certain big majorities like Montgomeryshire could still be retained if these percentages were played out uniformly across the board.
The constituency numbers used are based on Wales having the current allocation of 40 seats in the House of Commons. However there is currently a review of constituency boundaries across the whole of the UK that will likely result in Wales having just 32 seats. The commission looking at the issue is due to conclude this year so whether the new boundaries are in place will depend upon the timing of a general election. According to Dr Jac Larner, lecturer in politics at Cardiff Universities Wales Governance Centre, the proposed changes could make a Tory wipeout "considerably more likely".
He told WalesOnline: “Under the new boundaries the two Powys constituencies become considerably less favourable for the Conservatives with Montgomeryshire adding substantial portions of the old Clwyd South constituency and Brecon and Radnorshire adding parts of Neath. This makes the prospect of a Conservative wipeout in Wales considerably more likely.
“Seat projections from uniform swing always carry uncertainty as it assumes parties will gain or lose the same proportion of votes in every region and constituency of Wales. In reality this is very unlikely and there will be variations in swing across Wales. An important point to note that does not show up in this poll is the Conservatives have become substantially less popular among supporters of opposition parties (not that they were too popular in the first place). This increases the chance of tactical voting among these groups. We know from the Welsh Election Study that substantial chunks of Labour, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrat supporters are willing to vote strategically to try and stop the Conservatives from winning in their constituency.
“One thing the Conservatives will be watching is the 8% of voters who say they will vote for Reform UK. This group is overwhelmingly made up of 2019 Conservative voters who have since moved away from the party. Given that Reform UK has a negligible chance of winning any seats at a general election the Conservatives will be hoping to encourage as many of this group of voters back to them.”
Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and well-known polling analyst, added: "Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in today’s poll is bigger than in any YouGov poll conducted since David Cameron became Prime Minister in 2010. The party even has a commanding lead – by 41% to 31% – among those who voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum."
Bad news and stagnation for Plaid Cymru
The WalesOnline/YouGov poll will also make disheartening reading for Plaid Cymru. Under the polling they they will actually go down from four seats to three by losing Arfon in the north. However there is a caveat here that the numbers are very close. Labour edge it by just 0.4%.
Perhaps most concerning is that 28% of people who voted Plaid in 2019 say the would now vote Labour. Inability to make inroads outside their heartlands has been a long-running issue that has actually got worse under Adam Price's leadership.
The inability to win Anglesey (currently held by the Tories but forecast to turn red in this poll) will be unwelcome news for senior Plaid politician Rhun ap Iorwerth who has announced he plans to stand down from his position as a Senedd Member to run as an MP for that seat.
"The boundary review already means that one of Plaid’s existing seats is set to disappear," said Sir John Curtice. "But the party will be further concerned that today’s poll gives it its lowest rating since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, thereby reducing its chance of making a compensating gain elsewhere."
Lives getting worse
If looking for rationales for the Tories' polling woes the questions of living standards may hold the answer. When asked "Has your standard of living improved or got worse in the last 12 months, or has it stayed the same?" only 5% of those who voted Tory in the last election said they had improved. Of those 48% said their living standards had got worse while this figure was 55% across everyone polled.
How are different generations planning to vote?
The graph below shows the age profiles for people planning to vote for different parties. People between 24 and 49 seem to be abandoning the Tories whereas their pensioner vote seems to be holding up. Though traditionally Labour have been stronger in younger age groups the 16-24 category is only slightly higher than 50-64.
* The WalesOnline/YouGov poll used a sample size of 1,083 of adults in Wales (16+) who were questioned between February 17-23, 2023. Results weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused, and excluding 16-17-year-olds this week.
This is part of WalesOnline’s St David’s Day series exploring Welsh lives and attitudes and is part of a series coming up over the next few days. Sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here for more stories like this.
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