HOLYROOD will see a huge pro-independence majority of 29 MSPs after next year's elections, according to an exclusive new poll for The National.
The survey, conducted by Find Out Now, predicted that the SNP would win 35% of the constituency share and 25% on the regional vote.
While Scottish Labour came second with 15% on both, it represents a sharp drop since the last survey by the same pollster – with Anas Sarwar’s party predicted to be only the fourth biggest party by MSP share as a result, behind both the Scottish Tories and the Scottish Greens.
According to calculations by professor John Curtice, the full projected results (below) would see 57 seats for the SNP, 14 for Labour, 15 for the Conservatives, 8 for Reform UK, 13 for the LibDems, 15 for the Greens, and 7 for Alba, if replicated in 2026.
This would lead to the three pro-independence parties securing an enormous 29-seat majority with a total of 79 MSPs, compared to just 50 MSPs between the four unionist parties.
Here is a full breakdown by party with the difference compared with the last Find Out Now poll:
Constituency vote share
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SNP: 35% (+1)
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Labour: 15% (-5)
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Reform UK: 12% (-1)
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Conservatives: 12% (-1)
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Liberal Democrats: 12% (+3)
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Green: 9% (n/c)
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Alba: 3% (+1)
Regional list vote share:
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SNP: 25% (-2)
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Labour: 15% (-1)
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Reform UK: 10% (-1)
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Conservatives: 15% (n/c)
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Liberal Democrats: 12% (-1)
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Greens: 14% (+2)
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Alba: 7% (+2)
The same poll also found that Scotland would vote for independence by a significant majority were a second referendum held tomorrow – with 52% of Scots saying they would vote Yes and 41% saying they would back No.
This predicted increase in pro-indy MSPs is particularly due to increased support for both the Scottish Greens and Alba, with no particular increase in support for the SNP compared with the last poll.
But John Swinney’s party is the main beneficient of the collapse in Scottish Labour support in the constituency vote.
The survey suggests Labour would keep just 52% of its support from July’s General Election – losing voters to all parties, but particularly Reform UK and the SNP (13% and 12% respectively).
It represents the lowest Scottish Labour has polled in the constituency vote since the 2021 Holyrood election and would indicate that leader Anas Sarwar has a big mountain to climb if he is to meet his ambition to be Scotland's next first minister.
This sharp drop comes off the heals of chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement at the end of March, in which she made a number of welfare cuts.
A series of policy decisions from Keir Starmer’s Labour Government since July – from the Winter Fuel Payment being scrapped for millions of pensioners to abandoning compensation for Waspi women – have also not gone down well with voters according to successive polls.
Find Out Now polled 1417 Scottish adults between April 7-11 for the poll, with a nationally representative sample of 1112 people.
Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie said the poll is providing evidence of Scotland's "emphatic rejection of the austerity and division being pursued by Labour, the Tories and Reform".
He added: "Labour should be left in no doubt that cosying up to Trump and the far right is not something the Scottish public will stand for.
“It’s a poll that embraces hope and the possibility of real political change here in Scotland. A poll that says we can do things differently by taking power into our own hands."
Harvie went on: "We can rebuild our public services and infrastructure after 15 years of Westminster cuts. We can care for our environment, protect our human rights, and use our abundant natural resources to create a world leading green economy.
“This would be a record result for the Scottish Greens, and for the independence movement. We now have just over a year to make it a reality.”
Kenny MacAskill, the Alba Party leader, also welcomed the results and claimed it confirmed that Alba and the independence movement are picking up.
“The support for our party and a push for independence is there. We’ll be looking to work with others across the movement to deliver that,” he told The National.
“The UK Government's actions in saving Scunthorpe but sacrificing Grangemouth show that only independence allows us to revitalise our economy and protect our society.
“That’s why we believe the next election must be a plebiscite election - a clear and direct vote on Scotland’s right to choose its own future."
SNP MSP George Adam said:"The SNP under John Swinney’s leadership is focussed on the priorities of the people of Scotland and is determined to deliver hope for a better future.
"In government, we are showing what is possible when we have the powers to make decisions in Scotland, for Scotland; delivering increased capacity in our NHS, making it easier for people to see their GP, bringing back universal winter heating support and investing in economic growth."
He added: “And with the rise of Reform across the UK, the SNP is countering Farage’s harmful and divisive rhetoric which completely goes against Scotland’s values.
"Labour is paying the price of Keir Starmer's broken promises as voters see the realities of a Labour government: austerity cuts, betrayal of pensioners, soaring energy costs and Scottish industry treated as an afterthought.
“The SNP is confidently approaching the 2026 election, and heading into the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election with our excellent candidate in place we are focused on supporting people through tough times and providing hope for a brighter future. That’s the message we will be taking to voters in the year ahead.”
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said “Scotland has been let down for too long by this tired and out-of-touch SNP government.
“After 18 years in change, the SNP has left our NHS at breaking point, our economy flatlining, and our schools tumbling down the international league tables – it’s time for a new direction.
“Scottish Labour will be working tirelessly to earn voters’ trust and demonstrate that we can deliver the change in direction our country so badly needs.”
The Scottish Tories, the Scottish Lib Dems and Reform UK have also been approached for comment
