Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis narrowly leads President Joe Biden in the battleground states of Arizona and Pennsylvania, according to a poll of a hypothetical matchup between the two men in the 2024 presidential race.
The same survey, however, finds Biden leading former President Donald Trump in the two swing states, albeit by tight margins.
The poll, conducted from April 11 through April 13 by GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by McClatchyDC, should bolster the argument from many DeSantis supporters that the Florida Republican is more electable than the former president. Trump lost reelection in 2020 and has continued alienating some moderate voters with his ongoing false claims that the race was stolen from him.
Perceptions about the governor’s general election strength compared to Trump have helped fuel his rise in polls of the GOP 2024 primary, though DeSantis has not yet formally entered the race.
In Pennsylvania, according to the poll, DeSantis leads Biden 45% to 42%, while Trump trails the sitting president 42% to 46%.
The survey found that in Arizona, DeSantis leads Biden 48% to 42%. Trump, however, trails the Democratic leader 44% to 45%.
Public Opinion Strategies polled 500 registered voters in both Arizona and Pennsylvania. The leads in both sets of numbers are within the poll’s 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
Trump’s underlying numbers in each state are also a potential source of concern for the former president. In Pennsylvania, 56% of voters have an unfavorable view of him, compared to just 40% who have a favorable opinion
In Arizona, 58% of voters have an unfavorable view of him, while just 40% have a favorable view.
A critical mass of the electorate in the battlegrounds appears to have decided they are unlikely to vote for Trump next year: A majority of voters in both states — 56% in Pennsylvania and 55% in Arizona — say they aren’t likely to vote for Trump in a general election.
For DeSantis, just 45% of voters in Pennsylvania and 44% of them in Arizona say they aren’t too likely to vote for the governor in a general election. In each state, a plurality say they would be willing to vote for him.
Republicans have engaged in an avid debate over the electability of both politicians, with some Republicans expressing greater concern that DeSantis’ recent embrace of far-reaching positions on abortion rights and gun control threatens his appeal to many moderate voters. Other GOP candidates, including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, have also touted their own ability to win a general election.
Whoever emerges as the GOP nominee will have a major effect on down-ballot races for Senate and the U.S. House.
Public Opinion Strategies found that, after asking respondents in Arizona about a DeSantis-Biden matchup, voters preferred a GOP candidate for Congress over a Democratic candidate by a 47% to 38% margin.
After asking about a Trump-Biden matchup, however, a generic Democratic candidate held the edge over Republicans, 42% to 41%.
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