New Mexico vs. Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Lobos looking for a huge win over Rebels
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Will the offense keep going?
WEEK 8: New Mexico Lobos 3-5 vs UNLV 6-2
WHEN: Saturday, November 4, 2023, 4 PM MST/6 PM EST
WHERE: University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM
WEATHER: High of 56 low of 39
TV: Mountain West Network | Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network (In Nevada)
RADIO: Lobo Radio Network (96.3 FM/660 AM – KKOB). Robert Portnoy (play-by-play), DonTrell Moore (analyst), Ned James (sidelines)
SERIES RECORD: UNLV leads 14-12
WEBSITES: golobos.com | UNLV
SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV by eight
Odds/Point Spread: Lobos (+11)
Total/Over-Under: 61.5
The New Mexico Lobos (3-5) host the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (6-2) at University Stadium on Saturday, November 4, 2023. New Mexico opens this matchup as 11-point dogs. The over/under has been set at 61.5.
The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels enter this game with a season record of 6-2. In their most recent matchup, they faced off against the Fresno State Bulldogs and suffered a 31-24 defeat.
UNLV Running Rebels saw a 10-point halftime lead evaporate last week after three turnovers in the third quarter as Fresno State rallied to snap the Rebels’ five-game win streak, 31-24.
The Rebels entered the game with a positive turnover margin of nine for the season, having committed no more than two turnovers in any game and only two turnovers in their last four games.
However, within a span of just 11 minutes, a mishandled punt return, an interception, and another fumble disrupted UNLV’s hopes of achieving a 4-0 conference record for the first time since 1994.
Last week Rebel Quarterback Jayden Maiava completed 21 of 35 passes for 268 yards and threw two touchdowns but also had two interceptions.
Vincent Davis led the rushing attack for the Runnin’ Rebels with 68 yards on 12 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt.
Overall, UNLV ran the ball 43 times for a total of 156 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. They accumulated 424 yards on 78 plays in the game.
A significant portion of the recent success can be attributed to offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s innovative “Go-Go” offense.
This scheme seamlessly blends the traditional triple option principles with contemporary spread concepts, so Lobos must be fundamentally sound in their reads.
Salute to Service | Nov. 4, 4 pm vs. UNLV
Thank you @GuardTheZia for hosting!
🎟️| https://t.co/AdyXMkowe8#GoLobos pic.twitter.com/XHgz5ucaQv
— New Mexico Football (@UNMLoboFB) November 2, 2023
Prior to their hard-fought 25-23 victory over Colorado State on October 21, the Rebels had achieved the remarkable feat of scoring 40 or more points in four consecutive games, setting a new program record.
Defensively, UNLV allowed the Bulldogs to complete 27 passes out of 41 attempts for 256 yards, with a completion percentage of 65.9%. In terms of rushing defense, they gave up 56 yards on 20 attempts, averaging 2.8 yards per carry allowed.
So, Danny Gonzales Lobos will do battle against an excellent UNLV team in Albuquerque at University Stadium.
The Lobos have really improved on the offensive side of the ball with the hiring of UAB Offensive Coordinator Vincent Byant but have had challenges on the defensive side of the ball with growing pains in the secondary.
Over the past few weeks, the Lobos’ secondary and their defensive line have shown significant improvement, indicating that they are hitting their stride.
The Rebels will certainly provide a challenge to assess the progress made by Defensive Coordinator Troy’s Refeitt’s Lobo defense.
So there has never been a game that is so pivotal for them to prove themselves and get a big win for head coach Danny Gonzales than now.
UNLV has been averaging 34.3 points per game and ranks 18th in Division 1 with an average of 202.9 rushing yards per game.
They have scored a total of 7 touchdowns through the air and 23 rushing touchdowns, accumulating 3,403 total yards for the season.
However, they have been penalized 56 times for 490 yards and have turned the ball over ten times.
Regarding their pass defense, the Runnin’ Rebels have conceded 2,196 passing yards, ranking 120th in Division 1.
They allow an average of 274.5 passing yards per game and a completion percentage of 59.9%. Over the season, they have given up an average of 394.3 yards per game, ranking 91st in Division 1.
They have allowed 15 passing touchdowns and 11 rushing touchdowns while giving up 3.7 yards per rush and 119.8 rushing yards per game. UNLV’s defense is ranked 79th nationally, allowing 26.9 points per game.
On the other hand, the New Mexico Lobos come into this game with a season record of 3-5 and have struggled to put a compete game together for one reason or another.
In their previous game, they were defeated 34-24 by the Nevada Wolf Pack on a very chilly game at Mackay Stadium in Reno Nevada.
New Mexico found themselves trailing by 24 points in a game they had expected to win. Amidst this adversity, Lobo quarterback Dylan Hopkins found himself amidst his teammates and coaches.
He admitted to feeling upset and frustrated, embodying the voice of a team that was experiencing a degree of shock, as described by offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent.
“Three interceptions isn’t something we’ve encountered this year,” Vincent stated plainly during a Wednesday discussion.
It was also a situation that Hopkins had never encountered before. Throughout his five seasons at UAB and UNM, whether he was taking the helm as a redshirt freshman in 2019 or for his final season in Albuquerque, he had never thrown three interceptions in a single game.
However, on the preceding Saturday, in a 34-24 loss to Nevada, it happened – seemingly coming out of nowhere.
“I probably had the worst first half I’ve ever had,” Hopkins acknowledged on Tuesday. “And that’s on me. It’s not (head coach Danny Gonzales’) fault; it’s not Coach Vincent’s fault. I’ll take full responsibility for that. I just can’t perform like that.”
This writer expects that the calm under pressure and clutch quarterback, Dylan Hopkins, will have a big bounce-back game.
Despite his performance in the first half of last week, he has proven to be one of the best quarterbacks in the MWC conference.
“He’ll be fine on Saturday,” UNM’s head coach Danny Gonzales added. “You go from 20-of-25 (passing in a 42-21 win over Hawaii) and Mountain West (Offensive) Player of the Week and Manning Award Star of the Week as well.
“He never gets too high, he never gets too low,” Offensive Coordinator Bryant Vincent said. “I think he’s got the perfect personality, the perfect mindset for the quarterback position because you’re gonna have a lot of ups and downs. You’re gonna have losses. You’re gonna have tough plays.
“But I think his mentality and how he handles it — you know, he never lost his cool during the game. He was upset, but he was ready to go the next play … you’ll see a Dylan Hopkins that’s ready to go Saturday.”
Defensively, UNLV has shown vulnerability, allowing 2,196 passing yards this season and struggling to contain opposing offenses and passing is Hopkins’s strength, this will be a factor in the game.
New Mexico’s defense hung tough against the Wolf Pack. Still, UNM’s offense suffered three first-half interceptions, leading to 18 points as New Mexico lost 34-24 after falling behind 24-0 at the break.
The Lobos scored 24 points in the second half and had a chance with under a minute to go, but UNM missed a necessary 2-point conversion and then couldn’t get the onside kick.
In the end, New Mexico trailed too much to make a comeback. However, UNM put in a solid third quarter, giving it some hope of the largest comeback in school history.
Quarterback Dylan Hopkins threw for 271 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions on 18 of 34 passing attempts.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt rushed for 44 yards on 11 carries, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt.
The Lobos gained a total of 400 yards on 63 plays, averaging 6.3 yards per play. Their rushing game averaged 3.6 yards per carry, totaling 83 yards on 23 attempts.
Defensively, they allowed 180 rushing yards on 48 attempts, averaging 3.8 yards per rush.
The Lobos’ pass defense gave up 131 yards on 10 of 19 completions, with a completion percentage of 52.6%.
Offensively, the Lobos average 396.9 yards per game, ranking 61st in Division 1. They have accumulated 699 penalty yards on 76 infractions, the 4th highest in Division 1.
Their ground game averages 167.6 yards per game, with 1,341 rushing yards for the season.
They have thrown eight interceptions, lost two fumbles, and gained 177 first downs. Scoring-wise, the Lobos are ranked 62nd in college football, averaging 29.1 points per game.
Through the air, they have gained 1,834 yards, averaging 229.3 passing yards per game, which places them 66th nationally.
Defensively, the Lobos give up an average of 32.8 points per game, ranking 115th in the country.
They have allowed 1,342 rushing yards at an average of 167.8 yards per game, along with 11 rushing touchdowns.
In total, they have conceded 262 points. Through the air, they have given up 17 passing touchdowns and an average of 240.9 passing yards per game, ranking 95th in the nation.
The Lobos’ defense has been on the field for 488 plays, recording three fumbles and three interceptions this season.
Following Saturday’s defeat, the Lobos (3-5, 1-3) now require a 3-1 record in their remaining four games to become eligible for a bowl game.
Their upcoming schedule appears challenging, as their next three opponents are all 3-1 and share second place in the Mountain West, trailing only the undefeated Air Force Falcons.
Despite the narrow margin for error, Coach Gonzales emphasized that UNM’s belief in themselves remains unwavering.
“Our expectation is to win every single game we play — go 1-0 the week that we play,” Gonzales said. “And the next challenge up is UNLV. Obviously, our opportunities are getting less and less (to qualify for a bowl).”
With the return of Linebacker Syaire Riley, whose injury remains undisclosed, Donte Martin recovering from a foot injury, and hopefully Tavian Combs, the defense should be back to normal.
Linebacker Alec Marenco has been huge in both tackles and leadership for this defense and will be out for a half after last week’s targeting call.
New Mexico’s defense has had its share of challenges, but recent improvements in the secondary and defensive line suggest they are finding their rhythm under Defensive Coordinator Troy Reffett.
The Rebels’ high-scoring offense will test the Lobos’ improving defense, while New Mexico’s ability to bounce back from their recent loss hinges on quarterback Dylan Hopkins’ performance.
With Riley and Martin back in the mix, the Lobos aim to secure a much-needed win, but UNLV won’t make it easy.
Look for a strong rebound from Quaertback Dylan Hopkins but also from one of the Mountain West Conference’s top running backs, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who has had two relatively quiet games. He has 12 touchdowns for the season!
It’s not due to his abilities but rather the Lobos’ turnovers and falling behind, which forced them into a pass-heavy approach.
Establishing control at the line of scrimmage will be vital for the Lobos, and if Offensive Coordinator Vincent Bryant can reignite the running game, it could pose challenges for the Rebels.
The level of hunger within this pack of Lobos for a much-needed victory will be intriguing to watch.
In conclusion, the upcoming matchup between UNLV and New Mexico promises to be a critical one for both teams.
