New Mexico vs. Nevada: How Lobos Can Defeat Wolf Pack
Lobos looking to double its win total from 2023.
Follow @MWCwire
New Mexico going on the road.
WEEK 8: New Mexico Lobos 3-4 vs Nevada Wolf Pack 1-6
WHEN: Saturday, October 28, 2023
WHERE: Mackay Stadium, Reno Nevada
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAM: FuboTV with a free trial
RADIO: Lobo Radio Network Robert Portnoy & Dontrell Moore
SERIES RECORD: Wolf Pack lead 5 wins, 3 losses and 1 tie
Odds/Point Spread: Nevada -1
In a battle of two MWC teams, the Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6) square off against the New Mexico Lobos (3-4) on Saturday, October 28, 2023, at Mackay Stadium.
Danny Gonzales Lobo’s UNM (3-4, 1-2) ended a 14-game losing streak in the Mountain West with a 42-21 victory over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
The Lobos finally looked like a balanced team on both sides of the ball and showed Lobo fans what this Danny Gonzales team could look like in the future.
Then Ken Wilsons Nevada Wolf Pack’s went on the road and ended their 16-game losing streak, which was the longest in the nation, by securing an impressive 6-0 win against San Diego State.
Despite their 1-6 record, the Nevada Wolf Pack finds themselves as slight 1-point favorites for this matchup, with a total point over/under line set at 50.5.
It’s worth noting that both teams had been struggling with double-digit losing streaks in MW play, but now one is guaranteed to secure back-to-back league victories.
The last time the Lobos won consecutive MW games was at the end of the 2020 COVID-affected season when they triumphed over Wyoming and Fresno State.
The New Mexico Lobos enter this game with a season record of 3-4. In their latest outing, the Lobos faced the Hawaii Warriors and secured a convincing win, finishing with a score of 42-21.
The Lobos are strongly motivated to reach the required win level in their remaining games to become eligible for a bowl game, a scenario many critics of Danny Gonzales previously doubted would ever occur.
Lobos quarterback Dylan Hopkins was an efficient 20-for-25 with 202 yards and three touchdowns, completing 80 percent of his passes with no turnovers.
Nevada Football: How the Wolf Pack Can Win: How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Andrew Henry led the rushing attack for the Lobos last week, amassing 112 yards on 13 carries, averaging an impressive 8.6 yards per carry.
In total, they ran 64 plays, accumulating 429 yards; the Lobos gained 227 rushing yards on 38 attempts, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
The Lobos have one of the premier running backs in the Mountain West Conference, Jacory-Croskey Merrit “Bill,” who ranks 52nd in FBS with 545 yards and 11 touchdowns.
One significant challenge facing the Wolfpack is the task of containing the very balance OC Bryan Vincent Lobo offense, which is gaining momentum and finding a the right balance between their running and passing game.
The Lobos have amassed 2,775 yards for the season, scoring 13 touchdowns through passing and 15 touchdowns via rushing plays.
Their rushing game has been a strength, averaging 179.7 yards per game, ranking 35th in college football. In terms of scoring, the Lobos average 29.9 points per game.
Hiring UAB OC Bryant Vincent was one of the best decisions that Head Lobo coach Danny Gonzales made; it continues to pay big offensive dividends.
Gonzales praised this Lobo offense and Offensive Line Coach Cam Blankenship for giving Hopkins the protection and big holes in the line for his running backs.
Defensively, Jer’Marius Lewis had a team-high seven tackles with two interceptions, two pass breakups, a sack, and a forced fumble in a standout effort for the Lobos.
Jer’Marius Lewis, just a sophomore, is the nephew of former Lobo great and Detroit Lion great Glover Quinn. The family genes were shown in this game against the Rainbows of Hawaii.
Last week, the Lobo secondary was much more aggressive. It looked like the Lobo Defense of old, with many players contributing in tackles.
Defensively, the Lobos this year have struggled, conceding an average of 32.6 points per game, ranking 115th in college football.
They have allowed opponents to rush for an average of 5.4 yards per carry and 166.0 rushing yards per game, and through seven games, they have given up 1,162 rushing yards.
In terms of passing defense, they have surrendered 1,796 yards, ranking 100th in Division I, and allow an average of 256.6 passing yards per game, with a completion rate of 62.2%.
Their total yards allowed per game stands at 422.6, ranking them 115th in the nation. So far, they have allowed 17 passing touchdowns and 9 rushing touchdowns this season.
Lobo Defensive Coordinator Troy Reffett commented, “Guys got in a position to make plays, held the Warriors to 1-10 on third down attempts, we needed to for most of the game, we play hard four quarters through the games except the last two minutes.”
Head Lobo coach Danny Gonzales also commented: “We made plays in the secondary that we hadn’t been making, had the opportunity for seven legitimate interceptions before Saturday against Hawaii, Zach did a nice play that was an easy one, Jemarius made two big plays, last year this time we had 16 turnovers and this year just two.”
The Nevada Wolf Pack’s offense has struggled, averaging 311.1 yards per game, placing them at 119th in Division I.
They have accumulated 334 penalty yards on 39 infractions, ranking 98th nationally in terms of penalties.
Their rushing game has averaged 122.9 yards per game, totaling 860 rushing yards for the season.
They have committed seven turnovers while recovering five fumbles and have recorded 113 first downs.
However, in terms of scoring, they are currently 129th in Division I, averaging just 15.7 points per game, that will have to change in order to beat the Lobos at home.
Throughout the season, the Wolf Pack have amassed 1,318 passing yards, averaging 188.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 112th in the country.
Defensively, the Wolf Pack has struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard, allowing an average of 33.9 points per game, ranking them 120th in college football.
They have conceded 1,329 rushing yards, averaging 189.9 yards per game, and have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns so far this year.
They have given up 237 points, including 14 passing touchdowns and an average of 276.4 passing yards per game, ranking 124th in college football.
The Wolfpack’s challenge will be to effectively defend against OC Bryant Vincent’s offense, which boasts two highly skilled running backs and explosive receivers and Dylan Hopkins, known for his exceptional passing abilities.
The Wolfpack’s success last week against the SDSU Aztecs was a significant stoppage on third down completion, holding the Aztecs to 0-10.
That will be a tall task against this Lobo offense that is very balanced, so that will be something to look for in the game.
If they cannot stop third-down completions against the Lobos, it could be a long night for the home team, the Wolfpack.
The Wolf Pack defense has participated in 431 plays, which ranks 15th in the country, and they have managed to record six fumbles and three interceptions this season.
As the New Mexico Lobos take on the Nevada Wolf Pack, it promises to be an intriguing matchup, with both teams looking to build on recent wins.
The Lobos have to much to play for for the Wolf Pack to handle. They would come in into Albuquerque at 4-4 and two games away from being bowl eligible for the first time in many years.
Prediction
UNM Lobos 35 Nevada Wolf Pack 21
