New Frontier Data in partnership with FTI Consulting, released its annual market update, the 2022 U.S. Cannabis Report: Industry Projections & Trends.
The report projects annual U.S. legal cannabis sales to exceed $57 billion by 2030 (a CAGR of 14%) in current legal states, and if the 18 additional state markets poised to legalize do that, this figure would top $72 billion. Overall growth is fueled by convergent forces including strong consumer demand and an influx of newly operational legal state markets in recent years. Additionally, more adults are consuming cannabis regularly amid normalization and increasing societal recognition of the plant’s therapeutic and wellness applications.
“The seismic shift in public perception around cannabis is fueled in part by the growing exposure that Americans have through legal, regulated markets,” stated Gary Allen, New Frontier Data’s CEO. “Even in the absence of a federal framework, the resilience and growth potential of a determined industry is laying the foundation for a safe and sustainable consumer category.”
Other Key Findings:
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Self-reported usage rates have risen sharply since 2012, and if sustained, the number of U.S. consumers will grow from 47 million in 2020 to 71 million by 2030.
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U.S. medical markets continue to expand, with the number of registered patients forecast to increase to 5.7 million in 2030 (1.6% of the adult population).
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Assuming legalization in all 18 potential markets by 2030, 47% of total demand would be met by legal cannabis purchases, up from 27% in 2021, indicating continued disruption of illicit markets.
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Despite strong state-level momentum, the near-term prospects for federal reform are dim, but a limited measure, like cannabis banking reform, is possible following the 2022 mid-term elections.
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Photo by Shelby Ireland on Unsplash
