Only a fool makes predictions in politics these days and it is perhaps a testament to hubris (and foolishness) that I am going to have a stab at it.
First off, let’s talk about Plaid Cymru and the fact Adam Price will not be leader by the end of 2023. In fact, I think he will be gone by May. The “prophetic son” of Welsh politics (according to Plaid’s own election literature) has had a rocky time heading up the Party of Wales.
Electorally it has been dire. The 2021 Senedd Election absolutely did not go to plan. Just six months before he had told me that “anything less than First Minister would be a failure” the party was languishing in third behind the Tories. They lost their seat in the Rhondda (exactly the sort of area they need to be winning) and only really saw an increase in their vote in their heartlands.
Read more: Discontent in Plaid Cymru at culture under Adam Price as issues mount
The council elections the following year flattered to deceive. They may have gained three councils (rising from one to four), but these were very marginal anyway. Overall they actually lost six seats.
What both of the results show is that Adam Price is very good at speaking to the people who already agree with him. A Plaid leader doing well in Ceredigion, Anglesey and Gwynedd is not a barometer of success, it is a default setting. But does he seem to have a plan, or frankly care, about expanding the party’s base of appeal?
“You rebuild your red wall,” he told Labour at the Plaid conference adding that Plaid would “lead” Labour to more progressive policies. Hardly the outlook of a man who fancied himself kingmaker in a hung Welsh Parliament just a few years ago.
While there are frustrations within the wider party about the direction he has taken them, this will not be what finishes him. A far bigger problem for Adam Price is how he is viewed on a more personal level as a leader.
Some of his own MSs are frustrated at his perceived inaction to tackle allegations of abuse within the party. Several senior party members have expressed anger that he apparently needed to be pushed into suspending MS Rhys ab Owen after allegations the South Wales Central Member breached the Senedd code of conduct for MSs. The perception was that Mr Price only acted once the matter was being investigated by the Standards Commissioner..
An investigation into issues within the party is due to conclude in March this year and suggestions are that Adam’s leadership will not come out of it well. The reason why there has been no move against him so far is a perceived lack of alternatives. Rhun ap Iorwerth would be the most likely candidate, but he has already declared his ambition to run for Ynys Mon MP in the next general election. Under Plaid rules he would not be able to run for leader as an MP (though perhaps he will change his mind about running for Westminster).
There is young hungry talent in the Welsh parliamentary party that could offer a fresh change of direction, but it is a lot to ask of an upcoming politician to go for leader early in their career. Nevertheless, whoever challenges him, I just don’t see how he will remain as leader for the entirety of 2023.
The next prediction is that Mark Drakeford will have stepped down as First Minister. Now this one is a bit more uncertain. The Welsh Labour leader has indicated that he will step down before the next Senedd election (2026) and that he will give his successor “at least” two years to get their feet under the desk. This means that at the latest he will be gone by the summer of 2024.
However, I think there are strong reasons to think he will go before that point with an announcement before the summer recess perfectly possible in my opinion.
The first is that he is clearly tired. Pretty much overnight in March, 2020, he went from a man who was unknown across much of Wales to one of the most recognisable faces in the country. He ran the country throughout Covid (to what level of success is very much up for debate) and has then gone into an election and cost-of-living crisis.
The profile and pressure he faces far exceeds anything he could have imagined before he took office and he has admitted that the demands of the office are physically taxing. He turns 69 this year and, while that makes him far too young to be a US president, it is clear that the job is taking a toll.
I don’t think he will go soon as he won’t want to leave in the middle of NHS strikes and a bleak winter. He has also said that he believes there could be a snap election in 2023 and as Welsh Labour’s biggest electoral asset he won’t want to miss that (though I personally think the chances of the Tories calling a suicidal election are close to zero).
However, there will have to be an election at some point and I can’t see how he would want to risk going into that with a brand new leader. Plus there is little to suggest that next winter will be any less bleak than this one, so I think a summer announcement is most likely. That would enable a new leader to be in place by the autumn.
I therefore think that by the end of 2023, Drakeford will have yielded to the call of the allotment.
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