N.C. State’s football staff relies on analytics like many of their coaching peers in making some in-game decisions.
Fourth-and-goal from the opposing team’s 1-yard line? With the lead, in the fourth quarter?
Go for it – that’s what the analytics say, Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren says.
“Analytics tell you to go for it inside the 3 every time,” Doeren said Monday. “Because if you don’t get it you’re giving the ball back to ‘em in a position where you should be able to hold them in and get the ball back and get field position again.
“And your odds on fourth-and-1 are very high. The odds of getting seven points are very high and you’re going to take those odds.”
But what sterile analytics can’t quantify is the ability of players like East Carolina’s Juan Powell, Immanuel Hickman, Julius Wood and others pushing through the Pack’s offensive front, getting to the ball carrier quickly, making the stop with authority.
That’s what happened Saturday in the season opener between the Wolfpack and Pirates at ECU’s Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Powell was among several ECU defenders who eventually grabbed Pack running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye and slammed him to the turf for a 2-yard loss on fourth down.
A field goal by Christoper Dunn would have pushed the Pack ahead 24-14 with about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. That might have done it for N.C. State. Might have.
Instead, the Pirates scored, then were denied the chance at victory on a badly missed point-after and a pushed field-goal attempt from 41 yards with five seconds left. The Pack escaped, 21-20.
But Doeren went with the analytics – and his gut and instincts.
The Pack’s veteran offensive line, led by center Grant Gibson, would get the job done, Doeren believed. Sumo-Karngbaye, a tough runner, would get it in.
“I believe as head coach you have to show trust to your line,” Doeren said. “When you get a fourth-and-goal on the goal line and don’t go for it, if I was an offensive lineman and my head coach did that to me, I wouldn’t be very happy.
“That’s just not how I look at things. I need to give those guys a chance to earn it. We didn’t. So they owe me one and they know it.”
Besides, Doeren said, taking a “safe” field goal would be more the cautious move. And, he added, that’s something he’s not going to do.
“I’m not a cautious guy when it comes to going for things,” he said. “I didn’t get to be a head coach as young as I was by being cautious as a coach. We’re going to be aggressive in this program. Sometimes, it’s not going to work. Not everything is a guarantee. … At least if it doesn’t work, I’m going down swinging.”
Sometimes, it’s not about analytics or coaching self-analysis. Sometimes, it’s about simple will, effort and execution on the football field.
Early in the fourth quarter, the Pack had six plays inside the ECU 2. On the first possession, running back Jordan Houston was ruled to have fumbled and ECU recovered – a call upheld after review.
The Pack’s defense held and Thayer Thomas’ 18-yard punt return had the Pack at the ECU 23. Moments later, Sumo-Karngbaye smashed his way off the right side for 22 yards.
The Wolfpack then skewed the analytics by failing to score on four plays from the 1-yard line as the Pirates beat the Pack off the ball with a strong push and knifed through for tackles on Sumo-Karngbaye
“I feel like it was on me,” Karngbaye said after the game. “I should have pushed harder. I gave it my all but it wasn’t enough.”
The Pack went down swinging on the fourth-down play – pictures of the Pirates gang-tackling Sumo-Karngbaye flooding social media.
Odds are, the Pack’s offensive line, the group that “owes” Doeren one, has seen it.
