Just over three weeks into the NBA season, a bit of structure is beginning to take shape around the league. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics have briefly distanced themselves from the rest of the jumbled East Conference. Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns are laying early claim to top-three seeds.
Below these leaders are surprising starts on both sides of the pendulum. After an NBA Finals appearance last season, the Dallas Mavericks are only 5-6 and 12th in the West. The Houston Rockets are 8-4 and the San Antonio Spurs are 6-6; they’re each postseason teams currently.
The Milwaukee Bucks are 4-8. The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are both below .500 at 5-6. Littered with key injuries, the Philadelphia 76ers are 2-9 and 14th in the East.
To gauge the legitimacy of some records, the SportsCasting Crew of Es Baraheni, Mat Issa and Ben Pfeifer each picked two teams and determined whether their record through three weeks is a proper bellwether for the quality of their clubs.
Who’s Better Than Or (Roughly) As Good As Their Record?
New York Knicks: 5-6
The New York Knicks have had an inconsistent start. Plagued by frontcourt injuries, namely Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa, they’ve leaned on Karl-Anthony Towns to protect the backline, while Jericho Sims and Ariel Hukporti split minutes at backup center. Because of this, they’ve struggled on defense, allowing 114.4 points per 100 possession (20th league-wide). Towns has been particularly bad at protecting the rim. Opponents are shooting 13.7 percent better than their average on field goals within 6 feet when he’s the primary defender, per NBA.com
Part of that is their inflexible scheme. The Knicks are throwing Towns into drop coverage, where he’s struggled in the past, and it’s giving offenses a runway to bulldoze him on the inside. On the perimeter, the trio of Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges have been mostly good (Anunoby has been excellent). But they can only do so much as they try to navigate around screens and help out their big man.
The same inconsistency shows up on the offensive end. While the Knicks boast the NBA’s fourth-best offense thus far, putting up over 118 points per 100 possessions, the inconsistency derives from how teams are scheming against them and Towns.
Our own Mat Issa detailed how the Knicks have struggled against switch-heavy defenses that are comfortable putting smaller defenders on Towns and living with the consequences. Towns has been better as of late, and the Knicks are utilizing him on the offensive end similar to how the Timberwolves did over the last couple of seasons: flaring into space, driving into space and creating out of the post. It’s beginning to look better, evidenced in part by his 46 points on Wednesday night. But it still needs time to be ironed out.
On top of that, after dominating the league last season by winning the possession battle with offensive rebounds, the Knicks are 14th in offensive rebound percentage.
The Knicks are clearly going through a mild identity crisis as they adjust to a new reality and some untimely injuries. As they weather the storm, they’ll continue to look inconsistent. But there is a really good and potentially dominant team in there amid all the early mediocrity.
This start is a fluke. They are better than this and will show it. –Es Baraheni
Atlanta Hawks: 5-7
I’ve been riding the Atlanta Hawks train for quite some time now. So, it should come as no surprise that I think a 5-7 team is better than its record suggests.
The Hawks are suffering from two forms of bad luck: opponent shooting and injuries. They give up the fifth-highest 3-point percentage on wide-open threes (41.7 percent), and no team has lost more games due to injury. That’s headlined by Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, who have combined to play three games this season.
If these two variables regress to the norm, the Hawks already look more like a slightly above .500 team than a slightly below one. That says nothing about Trae Young’s early season struggles. He’s averaging 22.6 points per 75 possessions on 55 percent true shooting – both would his worst outputs since his rookie season. Given his splendor, a bounce back is probable.
Lastly, the Hawks are filled with young talent: Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Kobe Bufkin and Onyeka Okongwu. There’s the possibility that some or most of those guys grow as players throughout the season, further enhancing this team’s overall ceiling. -Mat Issa
Cleveland Cavaliers: 13-0
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-0 at the time of writing this. I’ll reach and predict they won’t finish the season out undefeated. But the Cavaliers are a dominant basketball team and one of the NBA’s most dangerous contenders. New head coach Kenny Atkinson leads the league’s second-ranked offense (120.9 points per 100 possession), maximizing this roster like no other coach has.
Evan Mobley is blossoming into the mismatch-hunting, initiating center Cleveland always hoped for. Darius Garland has returned to All-Star form, finally freed from the clutches of injuries. He’s playing the best basketball of his career, peaking his efficiency and playmaking like a true point guard. Ty Jerome has emerged out of nowhere as one of the NBA’s best bench guards.
Anchored by Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Cleveland still rolls out a top-10 defense. Kenny Atkinson’s brilliant offensive coaching has turned the duo into an offensive force, alongside the benefits of playing two elite defensive centers. According to NBA.com, Cleveland posted a 111.3 offensive rating when the duo shared the floor last year. This season, in 173 minutes, that mark’s risen to 120.3.
Caris LeVert, Jerome, Garland and Isaac Okoro have all made above 44 percent of their triples. Some of those numbers will regress. Even without that Curryian outside shooting effort, this is clearly the best version of the Post-LeBron Cavs. Atkinson has pushed all of the right buttons and the Core Four are thriving. We’ll see how it holds up in the playoffs, but few teams are better equipped to chase a title than Cleveland. –Ben Pfeifer
Who’s Worse Than Their Record?
Los Angeles Clippers: 6-6
Before I get started, I just want to say not many NBA writers have the love and appreciation for Norman Powell’s game that I do. The man is a walking bucket, and it has been an absolute joy watching him capitalize on the extra opportunity in Los Angeles with Paul George gone and Kawhi Leonard sidelined. He is averaging a blistering 25 points per game on 66 percent true shooting, including hitting nearly 50 percent of his threes on more than eight attempts a night.
Just absurdly efficient, high-volume basketball.
But he will cool off – unless he continues to shoot better than Stephen Curry ever has in his career from behind the arc – and the Clippers offense will simmer even more (as he and it did in Wednesday’s loss to the Houston Rockets). They’re ranked 17th in offensive rating right now, putting up nearly 112 points per 100 possessions. Most offensive success is because of the exploits of James Harden and Ivica Zubac in the pick-and-roll, the advantages they’ve been able to conjure up together, and Powell making teams pay for helping off of him.
Powell’s put up a few remarkable second-half efforts for the Clippers to win this season (or make it close). While it would be an incredible story, I’m reluctant to believe he’ll continue doing it at an All-Star level.
Besides, while Harden has been awesome to start the year, he has started to show signs of slowing down. His shooting numbers across the board are at career-lows, including a worrisome 40 percent on 2-pointers.
The defense is very good, though. With guys like Derrick Jones Jr., Zubac, Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn and Terrance Mann, the Clippers have the length and ball pressure to make things hard on opposing offenses. That aspect will help keep them in games, even as Powell cools off. Yet unless Leonard comes back soon, is healthy and returns to All-NBA-caliber basketball, it seems like this good start will be considered a fluke in a couple of months.
But I am more than happy to have Norm Powell shut me up. In fact, I’d look forward to it. –Es Baraheni
Phoenix Suns: 9-3
The Phoenix Suns are 9-3 and on 62-win pace. Yet they only have a plus-0.5 net rating, which ranks 12th in the NBA and is akin to 42-win pace. They find themselves in a ton of close games. According to NBA.com, the Suns have the most clutch wins — defined as the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points — in the entire league with seven. They are 7-1 (72-win pace) in clutch games.
Normally, great teams, a la 62-win ones, blow other teams out. They don’t leave games up to chance and variance. The Suns only have one double-digit victory this season, which questions the sustainability of their performance. Some may counter by saying that having professional bucket-getters like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker gives you a better chance of coming out on the right side of close games.
However, last year, with Durant and Booker on the roster, the Suns were 20-21 in clutch games. Others might say adding the likes of Tyus Jones and Ryan Dunn in the offseason is what’s made everything click. But I’ve already discussed why playing one or both of them creates other weaknesses.
The Suns are not a bad team. They just aren’t the juggernaut their current record suggests. –Mat Issa
Brooklyn Nets: 5-7
The Brooklyn Nets, which Las Vegas projected for the league’s lowest preseason win total, are 5-7 through 12 games. Brooklyn probably won’t finish so close to .500, which might guarantee it a playoff slot in a weak Eastern Conference. But 2024-25 has been an inarguably strong start for the Nets.
We can point to a number of factors that suggest regression for them. Dennis Schröder probably won’t convert 46.2 percent of his threes all season. Cam Johnson likely won’t continue shooting 82.8 percent at the rim as one of the league’s most effective drivers. Opponents make 36 percent of their threes against the Nets, a bottom 13 mark.
Head coach Jordi Fernandez, however, is the truth. Brooklyn’s five-out offense hums at times and it’s clear how the team has bought into the system. Ben Simmons looks better than he has in a long time, while players like Ziaire Williams and Noah Clowney look far more comfortable under Fernandez than prior coaches.
If I had to wager a guess, I’d expect the Nets to fall down to earth and sell one or multiple of Johnson, Schröder or Dorian Finney-Smith. Rebuilding teams, as part of their process, must construct a winning infrastructure. Through 12 games, the Nets are well on their way to building that positive environment, even if the win total is a tad flukey. –Ben Pfeifer
