We have less than a month to play in the 2021–22 regular season, and the league is seeing some serious separation in a trio of tiers.
A solid crop of tankers is working through every young lineup in sight, while the league’s top teams look to both get healthy and potentially secure an advantageous matchup in Round 1. Then there’s the lengthy middle. Both conferences sport a wealth of teams competing to both avoid and reach the play-in, leading to what could be a fascinating stretch of jockeying in the coming weeks.
So what should we expect to see from each team throughout the league? We at The Crossover asked one major question for each team as the postseason approaches.
(Note: SI’s NBA staff is ranking every team from best to worst all season long, taking into account how each squad is currently playing.)
1. Phoenix Suns
Current record: 58-14
Previous ranking: 1
Will Chris Paul be fresh in May and June? It’s hard to peg any team other than the Suns as the Finals favorite at the moment. Phoenix is second in both offensive and defensive rating, sports one of the deepest rotations in basketball, and when healthy, pairs an impressive young center with a pair of elite backcourt talents. The qualifier is notable, though. A full healthy postseason from Paul is no guarantee, and it’s not out of the question that Paul is hampered for or out completely for significant moments of the postseason. Paul is currently nursing a fractured thumb, so this isn’t the same concern as an ailing hamstring or quad. Let’s hope we can see a fresh and healthy Paul when the postseason rolls around.
2. Boston Celtics
Current record: 44-28
Previous ranking: 5
Will there be enough supplemental scoring next to Jayson Tatum? The Celtics have emerged as a defensive juggernaut this season, swarming every offense in sight en route to a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. Can Boston match that excellence on the other end? There’s the personnel to make the Celtics a top-five offense, though there are still more fits and starts than you’d like to see. Derrick White has helped break up some of the my-turn-your-turn stagnation that plagued the franchise in recent years. Perhaps he’ll be the missing ingredient as the Celtics look to reach their first Finals since 2010.
3. Miami Heat
Current record: 47-24
Previous ranking: 3
Can Tyler Herro maintain his progress? Miami enters Monday as the leading team in the Eastern Conference, yet its lack of an elite scorer keeps them outside most prognosticators’ top pick for the Finals. Can Herro provide the necessary boost? The likely Sixth Man of the Year is averaging a career-high 21.1 points per game on impressive 45/39/87 shooting splits, and he’s up to 25.4 points per game since the All-Star break. We’ve seen Herro deliver mammoth postseason performances before as Miami reached the 2020 Finals. A few scoring outbursts this spring could result in another Eastern Conference crown.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Current record: 49-23
Previous ranking: 2
Are the trap breakers ready? Ja Morant has been an absolute sensation this season, destroying rims at will en route to a likely All-NBA appearance. And while Morant has drawn plenty of defensive attention thus far, an even greater share is likely coming in the postseason. Morant could receive traps near half court à la James Harden and Steph Curry, and while he is the king of splitting the double team, he may have to consistently find a suitable outlet option at the free throw or three-point line. Whether the likes of Jonas Valančiūnas and Jaren Jackson Jr. navigate such a situation may play a major role in Memphis’s postseason success.
5. Milwaukee Bucks
Current record:44-27
Previous ranking: 4
Is this a sustainable rotation? Milwaukee is still a dominant group when the Giannis-Middleton-Holiday trio shares the floor, though the Bucks don’t seem to have the same wealth of depth as the 2020–21 group. This is still a shaky situation in the backcourt behind Holiday, and while Brook Lopez’s return to the floor marked a significant addition, it’s not clear whether he will immediately fill in as the same player he was last postseason. I’d still take Milwaukee over any other contender in the East. Though that prediction feels anything but ironclad as we approach the postseason?
6. Utah Jazz
Current record: 45-26
Previous ranking: 9
What non-Gobert alternatives does Quin Snyder have at his disposal? This isn’t a knock on the French big man? Quite the opposite. Utah still seems lost for significant portions of its minutes without Gobert on the floor, with a difficult slate of postseason options for coach Snyder. I remain a Hassan Whiteside skeptic. The Jazz still haven’t found a suitable small-ball lineup, with the Rudy Gay experiment delivering worse-than-expected returns. There’s still a championship ceiling in Utah. Yet don’t discount the chance of an early-round disaster.
7. Golden State Warriors
Current record: 47-24
Previous ranking: 6
Can Golden State handle the Western Conference’s behemoths? The Warriors ran roughshod over the league in the last decade in part through its commitment to small ball, though that path may not be prudent in the 2022 playoffs. The Warriors will likely have to face one or multiple of Nikola Jokić, Deandre Ayton, Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns to advance to the Finals, a task that seems awfully tall for Kevon Looney. Perhaps this would be an entirely different discussion had we seen James Wiseman on the floor for the last year-plus. But as currently constituted, the Warriors could have a major problem in the middle of this postseason.
8. Philadelphia 76ers
Current record: 43-27
Previous ranking: 8
Will James Harden get his burst back? Much of the focus often lies on The Beard’s patented step-back, but the true culprit in his scoring dip lies in his struggles to get to and finish at the rim. Harden looks a step (or two) slower than he did prehamstring injury, and it has in turn made him into a pass-first facilitator who is struggling to generate separation beyond the arc and near the rim. This version of Harden remains an effective player by sheer virtue of his basketball brilliance. But he’ll need to turn back the clock and reach another gear for Philadelphia to be considered anywhere near the title favorite.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
Current record: 42-30
Previous ranking: 12
Are Minnesota’s defensive gains for real? We’ve long assumed a team with Karl-Anthony Towns can only be around league-average defensively, though the Timberwolves have fought back against that narrative in recent weeks. They’re No. 4 in defensive rating since the All-Star break, with a deep cast of switchable wings (and Patrick Beverley) hounding offenses to mask Towns’s deficiencies. Chris Finch deserves major credit in turning this franchise around. Crafting a real defensive identity with a Towns–Anthony Edwards–D’Angelo Russell core is no easy task.
10. Dallas Mavericks
Current record: 43-28
Previous ranking: 7
Is this Spencer Dinwiddie heater going to continue? The former Nets and Wizards guard has been on an absolute tear since joining the Mavericks, banging home buzzer beaters and taking a significant share of secondary ballhandling duties. Luka Dončić is creeping up the MVP ladder, and he’s already proven to be one of the game’s greatest players on the postseason stage. A sturdy backcourt mate could morph the Mavericks into the surprise contender of 2022.
11. Denver Nuggets
Current record: 42-30
Previous ranking: 10
Where is the secondary scoring coming from? There’s a true dearth of scoring and playmaking on Denver’s roster outside of Nikola Jokić at the moment with both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. out of the lineup. Aaron Gordon is more of a complementary piece than anything, and there’s little reliable production out of Will Barton, Monte Morris and the rest of Denver’s current motley crew rotation. It’s tough to see the reigning MVP lasting long in the postseason unless one of his running mates returns.
12. Cleveland Cavaliers
Current record: 41-30
Previous ranking: 15
Can Cleveland get enough stops in the postseason? The Cavaliers were one of the feel-good stories of the season’s first half, sitting No. 3 in the East entering the All-Star break behind the league’s No. 4 defense. They haven’t been the same since losing Jarrett Allen to a finger injury in early March. Cleveland enters Monday sitting just 0.5 games ahead of Toronto for the final playoff spot, slipping to No. 18 in defensive rating in March. Evan Mobley is an elite defender–and not just for a rookie–but he’s just one man. Allen’s return is critical for this team to have a chance of advancing out of Round 1.
13. Brooklyn Nets
Current record: 37-34
Previous ranking: 11
Will Kevin Durant have any costars? It’s an obvious question, but frankly, it’s hard to see the Nets making any noise whatsoever without at least one of Kyrie Irving or Ben Simmons in the lineup. Let’s hope to see Simmons return to the court at some point this season. As for Irving, it’s certainly an unfortunate situation. Though, again, it’s one well within his power to change.
14. Toronto Raptors
Current record: 40-31
Previous ranking: 13
Can Scottie Barnes swing a series? This is quite the task for a 20-year-old, but it’s a testament to Barnes’s talent that we’re even asking the question. He could match up with Kevin Durant in a play-in battle, and if the Raptors advance, elite wings in James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jayson Tatum could await. Toronto currently projects to be a feisty first-round opponent. Whether it can be anything more likely hangs on Barnes’s shoulders.
15. Chicago Bulls
Current record: 41-29
Previous ranking: 14
Will DeMar DeRozan deliver at an All-NBA performance? Chicago’s star shrugged off a chorus of offseason critics en route to a fantastic scoring campaign, one in which he’s averaging 27.8 points per game entering Friday night. DeRozan is bound to earn some down-ballot MVP votes, and in the process, he’s brought the Bulls back to relevance in a crowded Eastern Conference. Will his brilliance continue in the postseason? I’m a bit skeptical. DeRozan is shooting just 41.1% from the field over his last 10 games, and Chicago’s offense has stalled when facing opponent traps. Consider Chicago more of a long shot than a true contender in the Eastern Conference.
16. Charlotte Hornets
Current record: 36-35
Previous ranking: 18
Will this team defend well enough to survive the play-in? Charlotte is bursting with scoring options as LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier terrorize backcourts across the East, but this still feels awfully like a one-and-done play-in team without a defensive adjustment. The Hornets sit No. 23 in defensive rating this season. Only three teams allow more transition points per game. A schematic or simple-effort improvement is necessary sooner than later if we want to take Charlotte seriously in the postseason.
17. Atlanta Hawks
Current record: 35-36
Previous ranking: 17
Can Atlanta get John Collins back healthy before the postseason? Atlanta’s Swiss-Army-knife forward was a critical piece of last year’s run to the Eastern Conference finals, and you can feel Atlanta missing a dose of athleticism and frontcourt versatility without him in the lineup as he nurses a foot injury. Trae Young is a dynamic player in his own right, though surrounding him simply with spacers isn’t exactly a winning recipe. Collins’s off-the-bounce verve is crucial for Atlanta as it looks to repeat last year’s success.
18. New Orleans Pelicans
Current record: 30-41
Previous ranking: 19
Let’s take a bit of a micro view with the Pelicans and look at one key member of their frontcourt. What exactly do the Pelicans have in Jaxson Hayes? The former No. 8 pick looked like a fish out of water for much of his first two seasons, shoehorned into a backup center role he wasn’t necessarily fit for. Hayes has rewrote the script this season. He’s thriving as an athletic four, flying into cutting lanes with a fury that often catches defenses by surprise. Hayes isn’t to be completely ignored beyond the arc, and on the other end, he’s versatile enough to both battle down low and skate onto the perimeter. New Orleans is absolutely cruising of late as it secures a play-in spot. Hayes deserves a notable share of the credit.
19. Los Angeles Clippers
Current record: 36-37
Previous ranking: 16
Is there any positive health news on the horizon? Ty Lue has done a masterly job of keeping Los Angeles in the playoff race despite myriad injuries, and while the Clippers may put a scare into someone in April, anything more than a play-in tournament win seems near-impossible barring an improved rotation. What can turn the tide for Los Angeles? I’m quite skeptical of Kawhi Leonard’s chance of returning this season, though there does seem to be a touch more optimism regarding Paul George and Norman Powell’s status when the play-in rolls around. Add both wing scorers, and perhaps the Clippers have a fighting chance in Round 1.
20. Washington Wizards
Current record: 30-40
Previous ranking: 20
Can Washington receive a healthy version of Kristaps Porziņģis? Its newly acquired center isn’t the prized asset he once was, but perhaps we’ve now dismissed his potential impact to an unfair degree. Porziņģis is averaging a healthy 20.6 points and seven rebounds per game in a Wizards uniform, and he was downright dominant in spurts in Saturday’s win over the Lakers. If healthy, the Bradley Beal–Porziņģis partnership could be the duo for a play-in contender next year.
21. New York Knicks
Current record: 30-41
Previous ranking: 21
Can RJ Barrett emerge as a leading scorer? New York’s second-year wing is a valuable player in a number of ways, filling in as a secondary ballhandler and occasional half-court engine. What’s left of his ceiling is one of the most interesting questions facing the franchise. We’ve seen some encouraging signs of late. Barrett is averaging 26.1 points per game since the All-Star break, adding a 46-point outburst against Miami. Barrett isn’t the most fluid three-point shooter. But he draws contact at the rim at a healthy rate, and his handle is showing a marked improvement down the stretch. Shifting further responsibility from Julius Randle to Barrett is New York’s most prudent path moving forward.
22. Los Angeles Lakers
Current record: 30-41
Previous ranking: 22
Will we see Anthony Davis again this season? The Lakers are most likely toast in terms of a deep playoff run regardless of Davis’s health, but it’s downright impossible to see this team escape the playoff without their impact man in the middle. Los Angeles cashed in its relative wealth of depth before 2021–22 in exchange for Russell Westbrook. Anything less than a fully healthy Big Three spells disaster.
23. San Antonio Spurs
Current record: 28-44
Previous ranking: 23
San Antonio will likely still finish outside the play-in barring a total Lakers collapse (not impossible!), leaving San Antonio in evaluation mode down the stretch. Just which of these youngsters are keepers for the future? That’s the central task for Gregg Popovich & Co. in the coming weeks. There’s plenty of intrigue in the crop surrounding leading man Dejounte Murray, with each of Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Lonnie Walker IV showing flashes of excellence as they navigate their first NBA seasons. Finding the right combination in this deep crop of guards and wings is the present challenge.
24. Indiana Pacers
Current record: 25-47
Previous ranking: 25
How will this backcourt shake out next season? Tyrese Halliburton is firmly entrenched as Indiana’s building block for the future, though sifting through who exactly will join him long-term is a tricky puzzle. Malcolm Brogdon’s skills are a bit repetitive with Halliburton on the roster. Caris LeVert is a talented scorer, though one who likes to dribble ad nauseam. Add in Buddy Hield, Chris Duarte and the potential return of TJ Warren, and a roster glut begins to form. Indiana’s acquisition of Halliburton feels like only step one of their latest retool.
25. Sacramento Kings
Current record: 25-48
Previous ranking: 27
Is this the real version of De’Aaron Fox? Sacramento was largely pilloried for its decision to send Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana, and while Domantas Sabonis remains an offensive force, the trade still looks curious one month later. But perhaps we’re discounting the deal’s impact on Sacramento’s other guard. Fox has been on a tear over his last 15 games, averaging 28.9 points and 6.8 assists per game on impressive 50/36/77 shooting splits. A renewed investment in Fox may be paying dividends as he’s once again given the full keys to Sacramento’s offense.
26. Portland Trail Blazers
Current record: 26-44
Previous ranking: 26
What is Josh Hart’s ceiling? Portland’s new guard has taken advantage of increased opportunity for a depleted Portland squad, erupting for 44- and 31-point nights over the last week. Hart was a useful piece from his first months in the league at Villanova, though he often seemed like a fringe starter. Parsing Damian Lillard’s future remains difficult, though if he does return to Portland next season, Hart will play a major role in a retooled roster. Though don’t discount the chance of his and Anfernee Simons’s soaking up possessions in 2022–23 as Portland kicks off a rebuild.
27. Oklahoma City Thunder
Current record: 29-51
Previous ranking: 30
Can Oklahoma City win this year’s tankathon? This isn’t a roster totally devoid of talent, with the backcourt duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey potentially serving as the anchor of the next Thunder playoff team. An elite frontcourt prospect could fit in quite nicely. Adding an impact player at center or power forward could be what sends this rebuild past the total asset accumulation stage, and luckily for Sam Presti & Co., a top-three pick could deliver just that.
28. Detroit Pistons
Current record: 19-52
Previous ranking: 24
Can Detroit find a second star next to Cade Cunningham? Detroit’s rookie looks like a franchise anchor in nearly every way as he makes a late push for the Rookie of the Year, and Detroit has been quite frisky since the All-Star break. Yet it’s hard to see the Pistons entering the playoff conversation without an impact piece in the near future. Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey are nice pieces. Making Jerami Grant a top option is a bit like placing a square peg in a round hole. Either through the draft, free agency or trade, Detroit will need to find a true running mate for Cunningham to make some true noise in the coming seasons.
29. Houston Rockets
Current record: 17-54
Previous ranking: 28
Is Jalen Green making The Leap? Houston’s dynamic rookie is on a scoring tear since the All-Star break, taking advantage of increased usage en route to 20.3 points per game on 49.2% from the field and 36.6% from three. Green is perhaps the game’s most explosive guard as he bursts to the rim, and he’s looking increasingly comfortable pulling up from the midrange as defenses (smartly) sag into the lane. Don’t let Green’s ugly start to the season obscure his future outlook. He’s a potential 25-points-per-game scorer, one who is just beginning to unlock the outer reaches of his potential.
30. Orlando Magic
Current record: 19-53
Previous ranking: 29
I remain bullish on Franz Wagner’s potential as a key piece of the franchise, and both Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba show flashes as impact bigs. Yet it’s hard to see Orlando building a winner unless it solves one key issue: Is there a standout guard on the roster? The mix right now is intriguing in its wealth of rotation players, yet anything more is presently no guarantee. Cole Anthony lacks the efficiency to be a leading man. Markelle Fultz remains a mystery with notable injury history. It’s too early to count out Jalen Suggs, though early returns on the offensive end have been a bit concerning. This could be the right fit for Purdue guard Jaden Ivey in June.
