A new NBA season has arrived, with both West and East teams ready to unleash new-look rosters to try to dethrone Denver.
Eastern Conference bracket
Round 1
No. 1 Celtics over No. 8 Magic
No. 6 Heat over No. 3 Cavaliers
No. 4 Knicks over No. 5 Sixers
Conference semifinals
Celtics over Knicks
Bucks over Heat
Conference finals
Bucks over Celtics
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Analysis
I love the fact that a Bucks-Celtics conference finals would serve as a de facto tiebreaker in terms of who won this past summer on the trade market. Obviously, Milwaukee made a seismic move in dealing for Damian Lillard. But the top of Boston’s rotation looks a bit scarier, too, having landed Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis. Milwaukee has unanswered questions—will Khris Middleton stay healthy, how will Adrian Griffin coach this team and how much of a drop-off will the defense see?—but those concern me a bit less than the Celtics’ center rotation. So I’ll take Milwaukee out of the East.
Western Conference bracket
Round 1
No. 1 Nuggets over No. 8 Timberwolves
No. 3 Suns over No. 6 Pelicans
No. 4 Warriors over No. 5 Clippers
Conference semifinals
Nuggets over Warriors
Lakers over Suns
Conference Finals
Lakers over Nuggets
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Analysis
I think this will be a tough year for the Nuggets without guys like Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. Yes, they’re replaceable. But they’re also solid veterans being replaced by youngsters, and youngsters—even talented ones like Finals hero Christian Braun and Zeke Nnaji—don’t always show the most linear growth from one season to the next. On the other hand, the Lakers added solid veteran depth to their group and will enjoy more roster continuity after last season’s deadline shakeups.
NBA Finals
Lakers over Bucks
MVP: LeBron James
So many of the league’s best teams—Denver, Milwaukee, Boston—took hits from a depth standpoint. So I’ll lean toward taking the contender that added there instead. The Lakers already have a pair of stars, albeit ones with injury concerns. The difference this time around is they have solid backups at just about every spot, which should better insulate them throughout the campaign if James or Anthony Davis suffers an ailment.
Player ready to make the leap
Since the end of last season, I was ready to deem Trey Murphy III as my guy for this category this season, as he displayed beautiful growth with the Pels in 2022–23. But regardless of what does or doesn’t happen with James Harden and Philly, I think Tyrese Maxey is a great bet to become a bona fide All-Star this season and leave no doubt he’s a franchise cornerstone along with Joel Embiid.
Potential play-in team that could make a deep playoff run
This feels like a slightly cheap pick after last season. But I’m quite down on the Heat this season, and I would believe you if you told me they’d finish anywhere from third to 10th in the East. It wouldn’t surprise me if they’re wildly successful and make me look like a fool, after missing out on Lillard and losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent during free agency. They still have grit and toughness most teams don’t, and they always know who they are.
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Bold prediction
The snakebitten Pelicans will finally enjoy a season in which their stars stay healthy. But a number of their depth pieces will have injuries instead. The club will end up performing well enough to make the playoffs without the play-in round, and its performance—and top-end health—will be solid enough to quiet the questions concerning Zion Williamson’s future with the team—at least for the time being.
Who will win the in-season tournament, and how much will it matter?
I’ve still yet to have anyone truly explain to me why any of it matters. But I’ll pick an up-and-coming team just for the hell of it: Orlando. There’s so much talent there among the club’s ballhandlers.
