NBA play-in madness is here.
And just like the madness of March Madness — so much madness in two sentences but it’s truly, er, madness — there’s so much to love about this year’s crop of squads jockeying for the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds.
We’ve got LeBron involved. The upstart Oklahoma City Thunder are in the mix. Maybe the Hawks can salvage a disappointing season with a run.
For now, as we get set for the games to begin, it’s a good time to make some predictions. We had our NBA minds weigh in on what will go down this week. Let’s dive in:
1
Who will be the No. 7 seeds in the East and West?
Charles Curtis
East: Miami Heat
West: Los Angeles Lakers
OK there, Captain Obvious. But I don’t see the broken-down Timberwolves or the Hawks doing anything.
Mike Sykes
East: Miami Heat
West: Los Angeles Lakers
I’ve got the Miami Heat as the East’s No. 7 seed. The Heat just have Atlanta’s number, man. Miami is 10-3 against the Hawks dating back to the start of the 2021-22 season if we include the playoffs. The Heat just know how to defend Trae Young as well as anyone and that goes a long way in shutting Atlanta down.
I have the Lakers coming out of the West. Not that this team is particularly special or good — it has definitely improved over the last two months, to be sure. But this is more about the self-sabotage of the Minnesota Timberwolves for me. The team absolutely imploded during the last game of the season — especially Rudy Gobert.
Prince J. Grimes
East: Miami Heat
West: Los Angeles Lakers
Atlanta can put up a lot of points, but Miami has just the defense to slow that down and has been coming along offensively the last month. And Minnesota has way too much drama going on right now for me to pick the Wolves over L.A.
Bryan Kalbrosky
East: Miami Heat
West: Los Angeles Lakers
The Heat and Lakers are taking on the Hawks and the Timberwolves, respectively, and it’s funny how similar these storylines are. The Heat and Lakers both underperformed but have the talent to win these games, while the Hawks and Timberwolves both traded future first-round picks during the offseason and are now dealing with off-court drama. I’ll take the better vibes in both games.
2
Who will be the No. 8 seeds in the East and West?
Charles
East: Atlanta Hawks
West: Oklahoma City Thunder
Be prepared here, friends. I’m about to shove all in on the Thunder. And I kind of thought about picking the Raps here, but I think they fall just short.
Sykes
East: Atlanta Hawks
West: Oklahoma City Thunder
I’ll stick with Atlanta in the East here. The Hawks have been completely average so far this season, but Trae Young is still a spectacular player. It’s hard for me to pick against him with a playoff slot on the line. We’ve seen him carry the Hawks on his back before.
In the West, I also have Oklahoma City. The Thunder finished the season on a two-game winning streak, which ordinarily doesn’t mean much. But I think this team will be confident going into the playoffs. And confidence matters so much when you have no postseason experience. OKC has more talent top to bottom than almost any team in the play-in and I think this serves as the coming out party for the big 3 of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey.
Prince
East: Toronto Raptors
West: New Orleans Pelicans
I like Toronto’s length and defensive versatility in a potential win-or-go-home game against the Hawks, who I don’t trust defensively at all. As for the Pels, I wish they were healthier, but I trust more of their guys to show up in a big game than the young Thunder — or the reeling Wolves.
Bryan
East: Toronto Raptors
West: New Orleans Pelicans
If the Heat take care of business against the Hawks, I like Toronto to beat Chicago and then eliminate Atlanta. No player in the NBA has recorded more possessions defending Trae Young than Toronto’s Fred VanVleet. While this would be a road game for the Raptors, they’ve got a size advantage that can secure them a spot in the playoffs.
On the other side of the bracket, as much as I love what the Thunder have done this season, they’ve stumbled down the stretch. I’m going with New Orleans. Brandon Ingram is quietly playing the best basketball of his life. Since March 1, Stephen Curry and Devin Booker are the only players in the West who have scored more points than Ingram. He also ranks fifth-best in assists during that span.
3
What's a darkhorse team you like to surprise?
Charles: The Thunder
ALL-IN. The Pels are a pretty good team. But I’m feeling a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 40-point game coming, followed by a Josh Giddey triple-double and a lockdown Lu Dort game to take down the T-Wolves.
Sykes: The Thunder
Like Charles, I’m feeling extremely good about Oklahoma City. There’s nothing that really tells me I should be — the Thunder have been completely average over the last 15 games with a near-even net-rating. But, man. If I just need a team to win one game, there aren’t too many players I’m taking over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander right now to get that done. He’s incredible.
Prince: Chicago Bulls
I know I have Toronto beating Chicago, but I’m not picking the Raptors to cover the 5.5-point spread. So that game could very well go the other way — in which case I’d pick the Bulls to beat Atlanta and win the eighth seed. They won’t go much further than that, but they’re a sneaky good defensive team.
Bryan: New Orleans Pelicans
Although it’s Brandon Ingram who has taken over as a star without Zion Williamson, it’s the depth that has really impressed me. Herbert Jones just had a breakout-caliber performance with 35 points scored against Memphis and Trey Murphy has had KD-esque efficiency (without the volume) all year long.
4
Who's the biggest X-factor?
Charles: Trae Young
Look, he’s had a very up-and-down year. But we’ve seen him go bonkers in the playoffs before and it’s been magical. If Trae can find that streak in him again, the Hawks could shock everyone in the play-in. In the playoffs? Not so much. But we’ll see!
Sykes: Anthony Davis
LeBron James is the face of the Lakers but there’s no doubt for me that Davis is the team’s driving force at this point. Had he been healthy all season, the Lakers’ big man would probably be a legitimate threat to win Defensive Player of the Year and is a terrifying offensive matchup for just about everyone once he gets in the paint — especially at the rim, where he shoots a whopping 72% from the floor. He could change a series pretty easily.
Prince: Trae Young
Charles is right. Young has it in him to go absolutely unconscious from the field and render my entire slate of Eastern Conference picks useless. His shooting splits are terrible this year, but a locked-in Young changes everything.
Bryan: Anthony Edwards
Do we remember how good Anthony Edwards looked in the playoffs last year? This dude was so dominant that Minnesota’s front office pushed all of their chips in the middle of the table because they thought the 21-year-old scoring wing was ready to win NOW. He had multiple 30-point performances against the Grizzlies last postseason and if he does it again, it’s a problem.
5
Will any of these teams win an actual playoff series?
Charles: Yes
I’m going to be bold here. Because I think if the Lakers are healthy, I could see a scenario where they take down the Grizzlies in the first round. We’re talking about LeBron James here.
Sykes: No
That Lakers-Grizzlies matchup is probably the biggest threat for an upset here considering Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke are both lost for the season. But I still think the Grizzlies are good enough to get the job done and move on to the next round. Ja Morant is spectacular. Jaren Jackson Jr. has improved a ton offensively. It’s just the specter of LeBron James and Anthony Davis that has everyone squeamish about picking Memphis, and rightfully so. But I still believe.
Prince: Yes
I’m going to roll with the Lakers here too. They’re clicking on all cylinders at the right time. I also wouldn’t sleep on Miami against Boston. I’m not quite ready to say the Heat will win, but they’ll be tough.
Bryan: Yes
My mind is telling me no, but my heart is telling me yes. I’m taking the playoff experience of LeBron James and Anthony Davis (he has won an NBA Finals, don’t @ me) over the youthful Grizzlies.
