Ripping open the mailbag as we barrel toward the crowning of a new NBA Cup champion …
Mannix! What do you make of LeBron James’s start to the season? He’s still great, but this is the first time I’m starting to see some signs of decline. —Charles, Naples, Fla.
So, I’ve watched a lot of LeBron James this season. Been to a bunch of Los Angeles Lakers games and watched the rest on TV. The short answer to your question is that James, approaching 40, remains among the 25 best players in the NBA. But a quarter into the season, you can definitely see signs, or in some cases a continuation, of decline.
Some erosion I see defensively. In spurts, James can still dial it up; I watched him do it a few times against the Oklahoma City Thunder, when he was switched onto Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But possession-to-possession, he’s not the same defensive player.
Offensively, I’m seeing him rely more on physicality than athleticism. Again, he can still dial it up—the posterizing of Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac last month is a good example—but he’s not regularly playing above the rim. It sort of reminds me of an aging boxer. Think George Foreman, who won a heavyweight title in his 40s. Or, more recently, Vasiliy Lomachenko, one of the most skilled boxers in my lifetime who in his mid-30s isn’t quite as bouncy as he used to be. Both those guys are still great, but they are a level below what they used to be.
The recent three-point struggles are an issue—James has missed 24 straight threes and has not made a single one in his last four games. James told reporters after Monday’s loss in Minnesota that he feels “off rhythm” the last few games. Those numbers will likely bounce back. And a reminder: The fact we are talking about James in this context at nearly 40 is remarkable.
How legit are the Cavs, and will it translate to postseason success? —gman4720, via Threads
I love everything about what I’m seeing in Cleveland. The offense is ruthlessly efficient. First in the league in scoring, first in field-goal percentage, first in three-point percentage. Donovan Mitchell is a legit MVP candidate, Darius Garland is having a career year and Kenny Atkinson has been an ideal fit to oversee the continued development of a terrific young roster.
On Garland, I’m really impressed with his start. There have been plenty of questions over the last year about whether Garland is the right fit for Cleveland. He’s responded this season with career-best three-point numbers (45.2%) that have pushed his scoring average back above 20 points per game.
Will that translate to playoff success? The two games the Cavs have played against the Boston Celtics—a narrow loss in Boston last month and a win over the Jaylen Brown–less C’s at home on Sunday—suggest it will. There are still lingering concerns about the point-of-attack defense, and while depth is great in the regular season, it’s less valuable in the playoffs. Right now, Cleveland looks like a real threat.
Is this Oklahoma City’s year? This is the strongest team they have had since 2012 and this one is even deeper. Maybe a bigger question is how long can they keep this group together? —Mark, Reno, Nev.
Couple things to unpack there, Mark. The Thunder are clearly the strongest team in the Western Conference. The defense is elite. Oklahoma City has the NBA’s top-ranked defense and it is a physical defense. They bump you on and off the ball, and they come at you in waves. They force turnovers (nearly 19 per game), collect steals (11.6) and defend the rim (6.6 blocks per game). Beyond Boston, there’s not a defense like it.
This team is really good, and I think the favorite to come out of the West. Long term, though, the roster will get expensive. Alex Caruso is extension eligible in a couple of weeks. I expect a deal to get done—no way Thunder general manager Sam Presti acquired Caruso without knowing what it would take to keep him long term. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are extension eligible next summer. Both, in my opinion, are (rookie) max players.
I’ve long believed Oklahoma City will play the season out with this group. But the offseason will be interesting. The Thunder are loaded with young talent and could have as many as four first-round picks in June’s draft, which is projected to be one of the deepest in years. No team in recent memory is more well-positioned to make a major trade.
There are signs they are positioning for a big deal. One rival team exec pointed to the Isaiah Hartenstein signing as an example. Yes, Hartenstein fortifies a frontcourt that needed help on the glass. But he also has a fat, moveable contract that could be useful in a future deal, which is one of the reasons this exec believes Oklahoma City signed him.
Read your column on Cooper Flagg. Is he the obvious No. 1 pick (like Victor Wembanyama)? Or will there be a debate over the next few months (over someone like Ace Bailey)? —Marcus, Brooklyn
You won’t find a scout who isn’t bullish on Cooper Flagg. He’s athletic, an elite weakside shot blocker and a strong defender with some budding playmaking skills on the offensive end. He’s the kind of wing, I think, will benefit from better guard play in the NBA. He’ll flourish in transition (he’s going to rack up a ton of fast break points) and in the pick-and-roll. He’s got good size (6' 9") and the ability to defend multiple positions.
Still—he’s not Wembanyama. He was kind of ehh against the Kansas Jayhawks, a veteran team that threw a bunch of different defenses at him. I haven’t seen enough of Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Ace Bailey, another long, 6' 10" wing who is off to an excellent start, but I can certainly see there being a debate in the months ahead.
Thoughts on the proposed All-Star Game format? —Thomas, via Instagram
I don’t care. There is no saving the All-Star Game. There is no killing it, either.
Who is the team generating the most chatter around the league when it comes to trades? —Elvin, Portland, Ore.
Easy. Washington. The Wizards have several veteran pieces (Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas) that will generate interest among contenders. Valanciunas has been linked to the Lakers, which makes sense for a team desperately in need of a frontcourt infusion. There has been strong interest in Kuzma in recent years—the Dallas Mavericks, among others, made a run at him last season—and it’s likely Washington will be even more receptive to offers now. They are a team to watch.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Mailbag: How Concerning Is LeBron James’s Decline?.
