As the 2023-24 NBA season begins, which players are poised to make the biggest individuals across the league?
With that in mind, HoopsHype polled 25 NBA executives to determine who will be the top breakout candidates this season. Each was asked to list his top three players to have a breakout year.
Buy Rockets TicketsSome executives voted for a younger player who could thrive with an increased role. Others voted for players on the cusp of becoming potential All-Stars for the first time.
Recent poll winners included Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey last season and Cleveland’s Darius Garland the year before, at which point he went on to become an All-Star for the first time.
After receiving feedback from the executives, voting results were tabulated. The top player received five points, the second received three points, and the third received one point for each ballot.
No. 3: Jalen Green
Share of the vote: 22.4% of the maximum amount possible
Analysis by Michael Scotto, HoopsHype:
Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green garnered considerable buzz this summer from playing in open runs with fellow NBA players. Four executives polled agreed with the hype and voted Green their top breakout candidate this season.
“Jalen Green has steadily improved since he entered the league,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “With Houston’s veteran additions making his life easier, he could flourish this year with his shot-making combined with ridiculous explosion.”
Another executive also believed the increased veteran presence around Green would elevate his game and IQ while adding the expected departure of Kevin Porter Jr. should increase his usage rate and production.
Lastly, the addition of coach Ime Udoka is expected to help Green maximize his potential and build winning habits for the 21-year-old guard after enduring a 42-122 record in his first two seasons in Houston.
No. 7: Jabari Smith Jr.
Share of the vote: 9.6% of the maximum amount possible
Analysis by Michael Scotto, HoopsHype:
Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. was compared to Rashard Lewis, Chris Bosh, and even Kevin Durant before the draft, with Lewis representing his floor and Bosh or Durant as his ceiling.
His ability to guard multiple positions with his athleticism and strength that will continue to grow over time intrigues executives across the league, including one who voted Smith Jr. with his top breakout player vote in our HoopsHype poll.
“Jabari Smith Jr. was on a tear to end last year and continued that trend through a monster summer,” an NBA executive who gave Smith Jr. a second-place vote on his ballot told HoopsHype. “Plus, his struggles as a rookie were primarily shooting-related, which is the one thing everyone knows he can do. His ability to put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim actually exceeded pre-draft expectations. As one of the youngest players in the league last year, he could be poised for a breakout season.”
During the final 17 games of last season, Smith Jr. averaged 16.4 points on 46.5% shooting from the field and 35.6% from beyond the 3-point arc, with 8.2 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game.
“I think Jabari is going to be a sleeper due to Houston’s style of play and increase in talent around him,” another NBA executive opined.
Honorable mention: Dillon Brooks
Share of the vote: 3.2% of the maximum amount possible
Analysis by Michael Scotto, HoopsHype:
After a rough playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers with the Memphis Grizzlies, Dillon Brooks signed a four-year, $86 million guaranteed contract with the Houston Rockets and was the sixth-highest rated NBA player in the FIBA World Cup according to our HoopsHype Global Rating.
Brooks was signed to bring veteran leadership as an All-Defensive Team player to a young Rockets squad looking to turn the page as a franchise from years of rebuilding.
“Dillon Brooks is a great breakout candidate because the narrative around him got so out of control last year,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “As we saw in the World Cup, he’s an elite defensive player who is a good offensive player. He doesn’t have to change at all, but now that he’s a name that’s on the radar, people will suddenly realize what he really is.”
Full list of NBA breakout candidates
Story: Who is the top breakout candidate this season? I asked 25 NBA executives. Franz Wagner, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Mikal Bridges, Evan Mobley, Shaedon Sharpe, Jabari Smith Jr, Keegan Murray, and Austin Reaves are contenders. More on @hoopshype. https://t.co/MmTwN5gJ3E
— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) October 11, 2023
