In the end, there were only four. The Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets are headed to Las Vegas for Saturday’s semifinals of the 2024-25 Emirates NBA Cup after a thrilling set of quarterfinal games.
Both the Eastern and Western Conference matchups are incredibly compelling battles that could swing either way. The upstart Rockets and their resilient group beat the Golden State Warriors for the first time since 2020 in a thriller to punch their ticket to Vegas. When the cards are down and with the odds against them, can this young and motivated Rockets team pull off the upset against the championship-contending Oklahoma City Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Trae Young rolled the dice against the New York Knicks and carved them up in the second half inside Madison Square Garden. Can the giant slayers continue their warpath against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the blazing-hot Milwaukee Bucks?
Let’s break down four factors that could determine who we see in the Tuesday’s NBA Cup Final.
Rockets Vs. Thunder
Season series: 1-1
Last meeting: Rockets won, 119-116, thanks to a Fred VanVleet rainbow jumper
Which Defense Makes Life Harder On The Other?
These are the NBA’s two best defenses clashing at the height of their powers. The Thunder have been world-beaters with their chaos-inducing style that forces turnovers, wreaks havoc with deflections and limits paint touches for offenses. They are a vise grip, meant to take away the best option and severely hinder other ones.
Their perimeter platoon of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso causes headaches for stars at the point of attack. Take a possession off and they’ll poke the ball right out from underneath. Big man Isaiah Hartenstein has been more than sturdy as the backline rim protector, allowing his teammates to be as aggressive as they’d like.
The Rockets, for their part, do their own rendition of this. Armed with Fred VanVleet and Dillion Brooks’ savvy point-of-attack defense, they do an excellent job of limiting drives. The “Terror Twins” off the bench, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason, come in and blow up actions with unbelievable length and quickness. They jump passing lanes, force turnovers and make life hell for anyone.
During their last meeting, the Rockets’ defense forced Williams to shoot 7-of-21 from the floor and helped Houston grab the win. That being said, Oklahoma City was without Caruso. Which defense can better define the game in their third matchup of the season?
Can The Rockets Keep Up Offensively?
Ultimately, when you have the best player on the court, you have an advantage. The Thunder have that on most nights with their MVP candidate in Gilgeous-Alexander. Even against the best defenses, including this Rockets one, he can go off, getting to spots in the midrange and displaying his newfound pull-up three.
The Rockets don’t have anyone as talented as him offensively. While Jalen Green or VanVleet can get up for certain matchups –VanVleet poured in a season-high 38 points against the Thunder two weeks ago — those nights are few and far between. Although Alperen Şengün is their offensive hub, he still often relies on Green or VanVleet to set the table. Part of doing that well requires posing a threat as scorers themselves.
At times, Houston’s offense is like watching paint dry. It shows in the numbers, too. The Rockets are 25th in half-court efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass. That might be enough for Oklahoma City to stomp out this young team.
Prediction: Thunder win
Bucks vs. Hawks
Season series: Hawks 1-0
Last meeting: Hawks built a 20-point lead and won, 119-104, to snap Milwaukee’s seven-game winning streak
Youth Vs. Experience
By minutes played, the Hawks are the league’s sixth-youngest team. The Bucks are the oldest. That said, this game might not be a classic case of “youth vs. experience.” Sure, Milwaukee’s core is older and more experienced, with Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis all playing an abundance of postseason basketball. But the Bucks’ supporting players are young and unproven.
Specifically, Andre Jackson Jr. and AJ Green have stepped up in major ways as the Bucks have turned things around this season. They’ll rely on those two on both ends of the floor if they want to topple this feisty Hawks team.
Yet, while the Hawks start rookie and No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risascher, the rest of their starters have seen a lot of high-stakes basketball. Perhaps their youth, in this regard, is only an advantage. The Hawks are a physical defensive team. Outside of Trae Young, they house a potent combination of length and size on the wings, making it easy for them to switch actions defensively.
They’re excellent at crashing the glass — especially on offense, where they boast the NBA’s fifth-best rebounding percentage. Dominating the boards helped them upset the Knicks and it could be a replicable formula against the Bucks, which are a bottom 10 rebounding team this season.
Damian Lillard Against Dyson Daniels
Dyson Daniels has been one of the most potent defensive problem solvers this season. His length, coordination and awareness all combine to make him one of the league’s very best point-of-attack monsters. Jalen Brunson saw the brunt of that on Wednesday night during the NBA Cup Quarterfinals. Both on and off the ball, he was swarmed by Daniels, forced into tough shots and ended the night with 14 points on 5-of-15 shooting. Daniels navigated around every screen thrown at him with precision. The Great Barrier Thief never allowed Brunson to find any sort of comfort.
How does that look against Lillard, another pick-and-roll-reliant star? Lillard was fine offensively in their last matchup, pouring in 25 points on 8-of-14 shooting. But Daniels also prompted five turnovers and limited his effectiveness as a playmaker. This individual matchup will be fun and ultimately determine how effective Milwaukee’s offense can be against a resilient Hawks team.
Atlanta might just be a thorn in Milwaukee’s side. The Bucks are 9-2 since Nov. 18. Their only losses came against the defending champion Boston Celtics (which Atlanta beat earlier this season) and these pesky Hawks. Atlanta is 6-1 against the Bucks, Celtics, Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers this year. The Hawks are giant slayers, and that has them poised to make a Cinderella run to the NBA Cup Final.
Prediction: Hawks win
