And then, there were two. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks will face off on in Tuesday’s Emirates NBA Cup Final. The winner takes home the money and the bragging rights, and puts the league on notice — or, in Oklahoma City’s case, the NBA decision-makers on notice to give it more national TV love.
You might think winning the NBA Cup doesn’t mean much for either side, but zooming out, there are implications for both clubs. The Bucks, which started the season 2-8, are playing much better basketball, have won eight of their last 10 games, and are now fully healthy with Khris Middleton back into the mix. This would be their first signature win against a top-tier title contender — a notch on the belt as they build upon their own championship aspirations.
For the Thunder, as one of the NBA’s youngest teams, winning the Cup would further solidify their status as one of the league’s best. A win against Milwaukee in a high-stakes environment is excellent experience for a team that intends to play for a championship in June.
So, this matters for both sides from numerous angles, which means we’re in for some great basketball.
But what specific factors could determine the winner?
How Do The Bucks Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
To some degree, the Bucks’ turnaround stems from their defensive improvements. Now up to 13th in the league on that side of the ball, they’ve gone back to playing more conservatively and funneling players inside to let Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez to clean things up. It’s worked well.
But can that program work against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one of the league’s most prolific and versatile scorers who can get to his spots on command? Milwaukee’s defense has turned the corner partly because of the move to start second-year wing Andre Jackson Jr. The Bucks are nearly seven points better defensively per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor, and it’s been because of what he does at the point of attack. He’s excellent navigating around screens, superbly uses his length, and is strong enough to hold his own guarding multiple positions.
Theoretically, all those characteristics make him a great candidate to get first crack at guarding Gilgeous-Alexander. How successful he is in limiting the perennial MVP candidate — especially in a single elimination game — could certainly swing the outcome.
The Gravity Of Giannis Antetokounmpo Vs. The Thunder Defense
With Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have their own matchup nightmare. He’s leading the league in points per game (32.7), putting up career numbers from midrange and almost single-handedly kept Milwaukee afloat when it was struggling. Unless your name is Al Horford, no one type of player is built to stop him and it’ll require a collective effort to limit the two-time MVP, who’s also firmly in the running for the award this season.
Luckily for the Thunder, they’re one of the fiercest defenses in NBA history and the league’s best this season. Generating turnovers, causing chaos and pressuring the ball to speed up opposing offenses, their aggression is second to none. During their NBA Cup Quarterfinals win over the Dallas Mavericks, they did a marvelous job forcing the ball out of Luka Doncic’s hands and held him to 16 points on 5-of-15 shooting. The way they blitzed Doncic and recovered out to Dallas’ shooters was sublime.
In that sense, Oklahoma City’s recipe for slowing Giannis is much more straightforward than what the Bucks will do to contain Gilgeous-Alexander. But nothing is ever *truly* straightforward when game-planning against The Greek Freak.
It’s A Make Or Miss League
Single elimination basketball brings about the highest levels of variance. A good or poor shooting night can often determine the game’s result. Ranking third in the league in 3-point percentage, the Bucks have been a great outside shooting team this season. Damian Lillard, Taurean Prince, AJ Green and Gary Trent Jr. have been lights out as of late. If any of them, particularly the rather combustible Lillard, catches fire beyond the arc, it could be enough to put the Bucks over the edge.
On the other hand, Oklahoma City touts a similar 3-point rate to Milwaukee, but is only 19th in 3-point percentage. However, they made 40 percent of their 50 attempts versus Dallas in the Cup Quarterfinals. Getting shots up is half the battle in the modern NBA, and if the Thunder out-math Milwaukee, things swing back in their favor.
That’s what makes the NBA Cup so special: Single elimination basketball creates so much uncertainty. And we have an unbelievable matchup between two teams playing high-level hoops featuring some of the league’s brightest stars. It’s as marquee of a matchup as you can find.
It doesn’t get much better than that.
