The NBA playoffs are finally here! With the conclusion of the play-in tournament on Friday night, the postseason bracket for the 2024–25 season is set. There’s never been more talent in the NBA, and this year’s field proves as much, with numerous teams that have the profile of true title contenders ready to go on Saturday.
Before the games tip off, let’s break down exactly who should be considered the favorite to win it all. Here are NBA championship power rankings entering the 2025 playoff race.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Regular-season record: 68–14
Postseason seed: West No. 1
Why they’ll win: The Thunder were the best team in the NBA all season long, finishing first in defensive rating and third in offensive rating. They have an MVP-caliber superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a pair of complementary talents in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren and a deep roster with multiple role players coach Mark Daigneault can call upon for pretty much any situation. OKC checks every box on paparer for a future champion.
Why they won’t: As good as they are, the Thunder lack in two areas: experience and shooting. Nobody on the roster has played past the second round, a sort of an intangible factor that may or may not matter. Shooting, on the other hand, is definitely tangible and could make a big difference. Lu Dort and SGA are the only two heavy-minutes players who shot above league average from three on over five attempts per game. OKC knows as well as anybody what one extended cold streak will do after the team shot 25-of-81 from three in the final two games of its second-round loss to the Dallas Mavericks last year.
2. Boston Celtics
Regular-season record: 61–21
Postseason seed: East No. 2
Why they’ll win: The Celtics are the only team in the field with a proven championship-level formula. Such are the benefits of being the defending champs. Boston didn’t cruise through the regular season quite as easily as last year but still won 60 games, finished in the top five for offensive and defensive rating and enters the postseason in largely good health (although Jaylen Brown’s knee is a concern). It will be very difficult to take the C’s down in a seven-game series.
Why they won’t: As mentioned above, if Brown isn’t at 100%, the Celtics will have to win without his ability to take on the toughest defensive assignment while acting as the No. 2 ballhandler for 40 minutes a game. That’s not easy. But it’s also impossible to predict, so instead the biggest concern for Boston is what happens if the three-pointers don’t fall. Joe Mazzulla had his squad lean even more into scoring from the arc than last season and as a result finished last in the entire NBA in percentage of points scored inside the arc. It’s not a glaring weak spot but something that could prove problematic should the Celtics’ array of sharpshooters collectively slump at the wrong time.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Regular-season record: 64–18
Postseason seed: East No. 1
Why they’ll win: The Cavs had an awesome season thanks to the best offense in the NBA. Cleveland finished first in points per game, fourth in field goals made per game, second in three-pointers made per game and second in field goal percentage. The defense was nearly as good; the Cavs finished eighth in both defensive rating and opponent paint points allowed per game. They have a well-rounded roster, star names, great chemistry and a smart coach.
Why they won’t: Defense wins championships, and while the Cavs defense on the whole was pretty good, the defensive backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland is concerning. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are more than good enough on the back line to clean up any mistakes but could tire out if opposing stars get past Mitchell and Garland with ease every time down the court. The Celtics and Thunder can trot out a lineup of great two-way players from one through five; the Cavaliers cannot.
4. Los Angeles Lakers
Regular-season record: 50–32
Postseason seed: West No. 3
Why they’ll win: LeBron James and Luka Doncic, of course. Putting those two great basketball minds on the court for the playoffs should make for incredible theater. Just one is capable of elevating his team far past the heights their talent level suggests they should reach. With both? The sky feels like the limit. Bet against those two manipulating opposing defenses at your own peril.
Why they won’t: It doesn’t make the Mavericks’ decision to trade him any better, but the problems with Doncic’s defense are very real, especially in the playoffs. The Celtics tortured him in last year’s NBA Finals and other teams undoubtedly took notes. He’ll be put into the action constantly and he isn’t always able to get the points he gives up back. Then there’s the Lakers’ complete lack of size resulting from trading Anthony Davis without a viable alternative, which will prove problematic when it comes to rim protection and rebounding. The ceiling is sky high for Los Angeles—but the floor is worryingly low.
5. Golden State Warriors
Regular-season record: 48–34
Postseason seed: West No. 7
Why they’ll win: Since Jimmy Butler got settled into his new digs, the Warriors have played like one of the best teams in the league, ranking first in the NBA in defensive rating and seventh in offensive rating since the All-Star break. Butler reminded the Warriors why they traded for him with a 38-point outburst in the play-in tournament to secure the No. 7 seed. Steph Curry remains Steph Curry, and Draymond Green’s defensive prowess has yet to wane. If Butler can provide a stabilizing two-way force while Curry drives the offense and Green the defense, the Dubs will have a shot in every game.
Why they won’t: Outside of those three, it’s hard to know who to count on for production on either end of the court; the supporting cast has been inconsistent this season in the Bay. And even with Golden State’s great end to the season, the team failed to avoid the play-in tournament thanks to a terrible loss to the lottery-bound San Antonio Spurs in the penultimate game of the season. The flaws in this team are there. It’s not hard to see a future in which the Warriors head home early as their offense gunks up and the role players struggle.
6. Los Angeles Clippers
Regular-season record: 50–32
Postseason seed: West No. 5
Why they’ll win: For much of the past season, the Clippers were a great defensive team who needed either Norman Powell or James Harden to explode offensively to win most games. Then Kawhi Leonard came back looking just like his old basketball cyborg self, bringing elite two-way play to the wing position. At that point the Clippers looked a lot more dangerous. Leonard dramatically raises their offensive ceiling and adds a turnover machine to an already quality defensive scheme. Teams with that kind of floor balance often make deep playoff runs.
Why they won’t: This is a team very, very reliant on Leonard and Harden. There are about a thousand different ways that can go wrong in the playoffs. Leonard is always one wrong step away from missing extended time and Harden doesn’t exactly have an illustrious history of stepping up when his team needs him most come postseason play. If all goes well, Los Angeles has a puncher’s chance in basically any series but all hasn’t gone well for Leonard and Harden playoff teams in the past; it’s hard to believe that will change this year.
7. Denver Nuggets
Regular-season record: 50–32
Postseason seed: West No. 4
Why they’ll win: Nikola Jokic. That’s it. The Serbian superstar put forth an unbelievable year, becoming the first center in NBA history to average a triple double for a whole season, and he has a great shot at winning his fourth MVP award. It’s long been the case in Denver that the Nuggets go as far as Jokic can take them and that is the case yet again this year. As long as he continues to play impeccably on the offensive end Denver will have a shot in every game and series it finds itself in, no matter the opponent. Jokic is just that good.
Why they won’t: There are four other players on the basketball court. The Nuggets’ supporting cast has been inconsistent all season long, so it’s hard to feel like they can count on guys like Jamal Murray to step up when needed this postseason. They’re also going into the postseason with a rookie interim head coach after Michael Malone was fired with three games remaining in the season. To top all that off, this season marks the worst defensive performance by the Nuggets in years; they rank 21st in defensive rating, their lowest ranking since the 2017–18 season. As great as Jokic is, a lot has to go right defensively for the Nuggets to make a serious run—and the past 82 games didn’t suggest that’s likely.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Regular-season record: 49–33
Postseason seed: West No. 6
Why they’ll win: Anthony Edwards made a big jump as a three-point shooter this past season, which could result in some explosive scoring this postseason as the floor opens up for him. The Wolves struggled adjusting to Julius Randle after the Karl-Anthony Towns trade but figured it out eventually and never missed a beat defensively; Minnesota is a top defensive team according to most metrics. When everything is clicking, the Wolves are physical, battle-hardened and fight for every inch of the court on both ends.
Why they won’t: There aren’t many teams in the playoff field who look worse than the Timberwolves when things aren’t clicking. There still seem to be struggles with cohesion and chemistry without KAT spacing the floor. The defense isn’t always connected. At their worst, the team devolves into a long string of Edwards and Randle isolations that end with a pull-up jumper and lackadaisical transition defense. It was a sight seen far too often during the regular season to totally buy into the program in the Twin Cities.
9. Houston Rockets
Regular-season record: 52–30
Postseason seed: West No. 2
Why they’ll win: The Rockets are a truly elite defensive team, stocked to the brim with perimeter pests, some of whom double as above-average rim protectors. Amen Thompson is only just scraping the ceiling of his potential, and there’s plenty of room to grow for Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, too. Houston is a young team with quality veteran presences; Fred VanVleet knows how to win a title, and Ime Udoka has coached his way to the Finals before. Betting on the simple mantra of “defense wins championships,” there aren’t many better options than the Rockets.
Why they won’t: Defense wins championships, but having some semblance of an offense helps quite a bit and the Rockets are deficient in that area. Houston ranked 13th in points per game but earned 17 fast break points per game (seventh in the NBA) and ranked first in second-chance points this season. The Rockets can probably rely on some of that to continue into postseason play, but the numbers serve as a reflection of their struggles in half-court offense, which puts a significant damper on their title hopes.
10. New York Knicks
Regular-season record: 51–31
Postseason seed: East No. 3
Why they’ll win: The Knicks burned all their trade assets last offseason to put together the best playoff lineup possible. Not the best team, the best playoff lineup. And in theory, they have it. Jalen Brunson is surrounded by three switchable wings who excel on the margins offensively, with a center who can shoot to completely open up the floor. That combination led to an electric year offensively for the Knicks and a tightened rotation could alleviate the depth concerns that cost the team a few games in the regular season. Plus, Brunson should be fresher than ever after missing most of March with an ankle sprain.
Why they won’t: You’ve seen the stat. The Knicks went 0–10 against the Celtics, Cavaliers and Thunder this season. New York’s defense is not up to the task against other top offenses, and it’s really hard to win in the NBA going bucket-for-bucket over the course of 48 minutes. And there’s nothing Tom Thibodeau can do about that, either. Opposing offenses are going to drag Towns into space, over and over, and proceed to get the shot they want. The only thing that’ll change is how well-equipped those opposing offenses are to do that. The Knicks are good enough to hang around, but will be hard-pressed to win games the further into the bracket they get.
11. Indiana Pacers
Regular-season record: 50–32
Postseason seed: East No. 4
Why they’ll win: The Pacers caught fire toward the end of this season with the same formula that got them to last year’s ECF: a breakneck, whirlwind offense led by Tyrese Haliburton and a swarming long-limbed defense that clutters up passing lanes. That offense can lean chaotic (in a bad way) at times, but it’s exhausting to defend over the course of a series. Teams go all-out to prevent easy buckets in fast break settings in the playoffs, but the Pacers make every possession a fast break possession with how quickly they inbound the ball and how hard they push it up the court. Indiana definitely has the goods offensively to make a run.
Why they won’t: While the Pacers have a lot of ideally built defenders for a strong unit they aren’t actually all that good on that end; Indiana ranked 13th in defensive rating this season. More problematically, the roster doesn’t boast many strong individual defenders and Myles Turner’s rim protection isn’t quite as strong a deterrent as you’d think. The Pacers will have a lot of trouble keeping up if their shots aren’t falling unless they can string together stops.
12. Milwaukee Bucks
Regular-season record: 48–34
Postseason seed: East No. 5
Why they’ll win: Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing like an MVP again. The Greek Freak enters the postseason healthy for the first time in a few years, along with ballhandling duties he hasn’t enjoyed since the acquisition of Damian Lillard. The result was a monstrous end-of-season stretch from the Bucks star, who hits postseason play averaging 31.5 points, 11.3 rebounds and 10.4 assists in his last 10 games. Milwaukee will always have a chance with Antetokounmpo playing like that, and he’s proven he can keep it up in postseason play.
Why they won’t: It’s fair to wonder if Antetokounmpo, in all his greatness, is enough. Lillard may return as early as the first round, but we have no idea when or what his play will look like after battling a blood clot over the last month. The rest of the Bucks’ supporting cast is tough to rely on, whether they’re on the older side or unproven. A lack of depth and star power will sink any team in the playoffs, and it’s questionable if the Bucks have the former under the best of circumstances. Entering Saturday’s first slate of games, they have neither.
13. Detroit Pistons
Regular-season record: 44–38
Postseason seed: East No. 6
Why they’ll win: Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has transformed this roster into a team, a room full of guys who clearly believe in each other and what they’re doing on the court. That’s been the primary reason for the big defensive leap the Pistons have made this season and the reason to believe a deep playoff run is possible, even if it’s not likely. Defending well at all times and giving Cade Cunningham a chance to carry the offense to a win four out of seven nights is not a guaranteed win, but it’s far from a guaranteed loss either.
Why they’ll lose: Cunningham ranked second in the NBA in turnovers per game this season, and Detroit largely lacks any two-way players outside its primary superstar. The Pistons have the capability to make life very difficult for any opponent they face, but there’s a talent gap they can’t overcome this year. They’ll be overmatched on offense, defense or both at every step this postseason.
14. Orlando Magic
Regular-season record: 41–41
Postseason seed: East No. 7
Why they’ll win: The Magic have a much better talent level than their record suggests. A pair of torn obliques, one suffered by Paolo Banchero and one suffered by Franz Wagner, derailed the season before it really began. Now, though, both star wings are healthy and capable of making the Celtics’ life difficult in the first round. And even still missing players like Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner, the Magic are an elite defensive team. If Wagner and Banchero turn into a younger version of Jayson Tatum and Brown by dominating both ends of the court, Orlando can hang around.
Why they won’t: The Magic have perhaps the worst offense of any playoff team, even taking into account Banchero and Wagner’s creation. They ranked 28th in points per game, 29th in field goals made per game and last in three-pointers per game. Maybe you could talk yourself into a second-round appearance with any other first-round opponent, but it’s mighty difficult to see any way in which the Magic can keep up with the Celtics’ preposterous firepower from three.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
Regular-season record: 48–34
Postseason seed: West No. 8
Why they’ll win: The Grizzlies were a sleeper title contender once upon a time. Ja Morant is still capable of greatness on the offensive end, and Jaren Jackson Jr. remains one of the league’s most dangerous defensive players. Rookie Zach Edey is a fun and useful addition to the roster in the paint. Desmond Bane is still a deadeye. The pieces of the Grizzlies’ core that everyone thought would contend for years until recently are still there, and you can see the vision.
Why they won’t: The end of the season was a complete disaster in Memphis. Along with the firing of Taylor Jenkins, the roster lost both Brandon Clarke and Jaylen Wells to injury for the season. Those two were critical to what the Grizzlies need to do to win games defensively, and without them it’s hard to see a deep playoff run.
16. Miami Heat
Regular-season record: 37–45
Postseason seed: East No. 8
Why they’ll win: Tyler Herro is looking like he could become one of the league’s next great scorers. If Bam Adebayo was to elevate his game in that way, too, it’s a nasty one-two punch from Miami. And if the right version of Andrew Wiggins shows up, Erik Spoelstra has enough chess pieces to make some noise.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Championship Power Rankings: Thunder Roll Into Postseason As Favorites.
