As part of a new series at For The Win, we are examining who should win major NBA awards based on what we can learn from advanced analytics.
Of course, numbers aren’t the only thing we should consider when making these predictions. But they do remove some bias we have about narratives, and while using one stat may not tell the whole story, various formulas that yield similar results can provide a notable context in these decisions.
We used a methodology originally suggested by Owen Phillips, who now works in analytics for the Knicks.
The first step was finding which metrics to use. For this survey, we included the metrics deemed as the most trustworthy by NBA executives when asked by HoopsHype. (We’ve included more information on where you can find each metric at the bottom of the page.)
Based on a tip from another individual who works in a front office for an NBA team, because each of these metrics is graded on different scales, we adjusted for playing time by multiplying their impact contribution on each metric by the percentage of possible minutes they have played for their team so far this season.
We then standardized each score by finding the Z-score for each player in each metric. The Z-score measures how many standard deviations from the mean for each data point. If a Z-score is 0, that means the player is exactly league average.
As the last step, we took the average Z-score that a player had across each metric. Because these metrics are not perfect, however, we removed the outliers of the highest overall Z-score and the lowest overall Z-score. Finally, this gave us our results you will find below.
If all of this sounds like a lot of numbers, don’t worry! Just take a look at the “score” for a clean metric that summarizes overall productivity.
For comparison, we’ve also included the latest betting odds for each award. Hopefully, the advanced metrics can provide context as you consider which future bets to place.
NOTE: The metrics pulled directly from the HoopsHype survey included Daily Plus-Minus (DPM), Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), RAPTOR (FiveThirtyEight), Real Plus-Minus (ESPN), Box Plus-Minus (Basketball-Reference), Player Efficiency Rating (Basketball-Reference), Win Shares (Basketball-Reference), kWPA (Inpredictable).
We also added the model of Box Plus-Minus from Backpicks.com, Daily-Updated Rating of Individual Performance (DRIP), Stable Player Impact (SPI), and Global Rating (HoopsHype).
LEBRON (BBall-Index) was not included because the data has not been published yet this season. However, if it’s publicly available by our next update, LEBRON will also be calculated.
Most Valuable Player
STATISTICAL FAVORITE: We’ve got an incredibly close race for this year’s Most Valuable Player. Luka Doncic (+300) has the advantage right now, and the main advantage Doncic has over reigning NBA Finals MVP Stephen Curry right now is that he has played 73.4 percent of minutes for his team and the Golden State superstar is at 65.4 percent.
MOST SURPRISING: The shocking sleeper candidates based on the analytics so far this season are Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton. Both players are on teams expected to tank but have surpassed any and all expectations.
BEST VALUE: Kevin Durant (+3300) is the best overall value bet on the board with an implied probability of just 2.94 percent. But the Nets are on pace to win just 42 games, which would be the third-worst total ever from an MVP winner.
SMARTEST BET: Assuming that the Celtics keep winning and Jayson Tatum (+300) continues to lead their historically efficient and productive offense, he should remain a serious threat to win as well.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- Devin Booker (3.25)
- Donovan Mitchell (2.91)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (2.76)
- Anthony Davis (2.74)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2.64)
- Tyrese Haliburton (2.49)
- Ja Morant (2.23)
Defensive Player of the Year
STATISTICAL FAVORITE: Milwaukee’s Brook Lopez (+180) has already played in more regular season games this season than he did last year — when he missed significant time due to his back surgery. Now, however, he is playing some of the best basketball he has ever played.
MOST SURPRISING: It’s shocking to see how these statistics view Nikola Jokic (+50000). But the Nuggets allow 8.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the court relative to when he is not, per Cleaning The Glass. That ranks in the 90th percentile in the league and among bigs, his steal percentage currently ranks in the 93rd percentile.
BEST VALUE: Anthony Davis (+3000) is having a nice bounce-back campaign during what is an otherwise disappointing season for the Lakers. His long odds are tempting.
SMARTEST BEST: O.G. Anunoby (+900) leads the league in steals and has taken the leap to become one of the league’s best defenders.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- Draymond Green (1.96)
- Joel Embiid (1.95)
- Ivica Zubac (1.89)
- Rudy Gobert (1.87)
- Jarrett Allen (1.73)
Rookie of the Year
STATISTICAL FAVORITE: Orlando’s Paolo Banchero (-500) was a surprising choice at No. 1 overall, but he probably shouldn’t have been. He has had a delightful start to his professional career and is the clear favorite for the NBA’s Rookie of the Year.
MOST SURPRISING: Houston’s Tari Eason (+50000) is an analytics darling who is the surprising runner-up for the award thus far. Per 36 minutes, the former LSU standout leads all NBA players in loose balls recovered (1.7) thus far. Among those who have played as many minutes, only Alex Caruso has recorded more deflections per minute. He leads rookies in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR.
BEST VALUE: Jaden Ivey (+3000) is worth considering at his long odds, though the analytics don’t suggest he is one of the five most impactful rookies so far this season.
SMARTEST BET: Indiana’s Bennedict Mathurin (+260) came out of the gates very hot on the offensive side of the floor, but he grades among the worst in the league with his defensive projections on DARKO’s DPM and The Analyst’s DRIP. Still, given Banchero has had trouble staying healthy, Mathurin is the only other serious candidate.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- AJ Griffin (0.37)
- Andrew Nembhard (0.33)
- Jaden Ivey (0.20)
- Jalen Duren (-0.03)
- Jake LaRavia (-0.17)
- Jabari Smith Jr. (-0.16)
Sixth Man of the Year
Only players who have started less than 25 percent of games for their teams.
STATISTICAL FAVORITE: He is flying under the radar so far this season, but forward Larry Nance Jr. (+8000) is having a massively positive impact on the Pelicans so far this season. He is shooting a career-best 46.7 percent on 3-pointers and per 36 minutes, he is scoring more (15.2 ppg) and protecting the rim (1.3 bpg) better than ever before.
MOST SURPRISING: Chris Boucher (+11000), Jose Alvarado (+30000), Sam Hauser (no odds), and Javonte Green (no odds) are all former undrafted free agents who have carved excellent roles for themselves in the pros.
BEST VALUE: Kevin Love (+3000) was a finalist to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year last season, and the five-time All-Star has a serious chance to take home the hardware in 2022-23.
SMARTEST BET: Malcolm Brogdon (+500) is having exactly the type of season voters typically look for in the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year. He is an excellent scorer for the league’s best offense.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- Jose Alvarado (1.39)
- Immanuel Quickley (1.35)
- Javonte Green (1.33)
- Sam Hauser (1.31)
- Josh Green (1.17)
- Chris Boucher (1.12)
