Election results in parts of regional Victoria have been met with surprise by pollsters and prompted the possibility of a split within the Victorian Coalition.
The Nationals have made a resurgence at the cost of independents, a trend that surprised Simon Welsh, director of research and policy at consultancy RedBridge.
"We haven't got to the bottom of it yet as to why and how and so forth, but there was something funny happening in regional Victoria," he said.
It comes as a senior Victorian National Party member suggested re-evaluating the Coalition agreement following such success.
Mr Welsh said, at an early glance, it was possible voters threw their support at the Nationals following the pandemic and the impact it had on regional communities.
"What we were hearing before the election was clearly a strong anti-Labor, anti-Dan sentiment," he said.
He said frustrations with lockdowns would form part of the regional voting story, particularly for border communities such as Benambra and Mildura, which both had unsuccessful independents run.
"We were slammed from both sides with border closures and all the rest of it, so it's that sense of the country paying for the mistakes of the city during the pandemic," Mr Welsh said.
Aligning with Labor
The results for the seats of Mildura and Shepparton, where independents Ali Cupper and Suzanna Sheed were defeated, were "eye-opening", Mr Welsh said.
"Perhaps Ali and Suzanna were seen as being too close to Labor during that pandemic," he said, which could have cost them votes.
Ms Sheed was defeated by Nationals candidate and former local mayor Kim O'Keeffe after two terms in parliament.
"We did a bit of research in Shepparton and Kim is quite a high-profile and well-liked candidate, so there was a bit of a personal halo around her and obviously that helps," Mr Welsh said.
Deputy leader Emma Kealy said the Nationals made sure to select high-calibre candidates to take on the incumbent independents and it clearly paid off.
"Kim O'Keeffe is a fabulous local candidate and over the recent period she's been a fabulous community advocate in dealing with the floods," she said.
"Country people deserve to have a good strong voice in parliament.
"I think people were a bit disappointed they haven't had a local member [in Ali Cupper, Mildura]. She tends to vote more with Daniel Andrews than not," Ms Kealy said.
Hungry for independents
Benambra attracted statewide attention, but Mr Welsh said independent Jacqui Hawkins's campaign underperformed compared with expectations.
She came within around 2,000 votes of Liberal incumbent Bill Tilley at the last state election, which made it a seat to watch when the two came head-to-head again at the weekend.
Despite conceding, Ms Hawkins said, "I think we've sent a very strong message to the major parties that we want to participate in the political process and not have politics done to us".
"You can't ignore the results. They speak clearly for themselves. This is one of the top marginal seats now in all of Victoria," she said.
Despite the fall of the two independents at this state election, Mr Welsh said it was not the beginning of the end of the movement.
"If you take the overall story about the other party, minor party, independent vote, that's still trending up even in this election," he said.
"I think that third wave — not Coalition, not Labor, but looking for that third option — that hunger and that appetite still seem to be there and growing," he said.
"The results are fascinating and surprising."
Ali Cupper was contacted for comment but declined to respond.
