The Green Party is eating up the vote on the left in a new poll, and for the third time this month National needs Winston Peters to form a government
Monday night’s Newshub-Reid Research poll has the Greens on the up, hitting 14.2 percent.
It’s reminiscent of the 15 percent reached by the party in 2017 in a TVNZ poll after the bombshell revelation by the then-co-leader Metiria Turei that she had lied to Work and Income to make ends meet as a solo parent.
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That admission gave the Greens an initial bump of four points in July 2017 and ultimately the impact it had on Labour’s vote led to then-leader Andrew Little calling it quits and Jacinda Ardern taking over.
At the time Labour had dropped three points to 24 percent. Fast forward to Monday night and Chris Hipkins’ Labour Party is slightly down by 0.3 points to 26.5 percent.
Te Pāti Māori is also down by 0.9 points to 2.2 percent. Combined, these drops in the poll make up most of the 1.9 percentage points the Greens are up by.
The Greens are on the rise while on the other side of the divide Act has dropped to single digits, down 1.3 points to 8.8 percent.
The National Party is also down 1.8 points to 39.1 percent and now requiring New Zealand First to get over the threshold of 61 seats to govern.
Both The Post/Freshwater Strategy and The Guardian Essential polls this month have also had National and Act needing Winston Peters to get across the line.
It comes after National leader Christopher Luxon confirmed on Monday morning he would work with Peters if he had to.
Peters told Newsroom Luxon’s comments weren’t important to the political narrative, and the voters would decide who would be in power after October 14.
The Greens have been running a traditional grassroots campaign this election with plenty of doorknocking and a laser-like focus on the Auckland Central, Wellington Central and Rongotai electorates where prominent MPs and candidates are standing.
This new poll would bring 18 MPs into Parliament – a significant caucus for the party, albeit on opposition benches.
Green co-leader James Shaw has long said his plan was to take the party into government and lead it out safely the other side. A caucus of that size would be a silver lining if Labour fails to get the numbers to get both parties back in government.
Though Luxon would need Peters to form a coalition after October 14, his win in Monday’s poll is finally overtaking Hipkins as preferred prime minister.
Luxon’s now five points ahead of the Labour leader, on 24 percent. Hipkins fell 3.4 points to 19.1 percent.
Though that result combined with Labour’s inability to form a government would send shivers down the spine of past leaders, as it did Little in 2017, there’s no Ardern-in-waiting for Hipkins.
He’s adamant he’ll slog it out for another three weeks, and expect him to turn up the negative rhetoric against a potential National-Act-NZ First government in Wednesday night’s leaders’ debate.
