With just over three weeks until Election Day, new national polls show a close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump appears to be gaining momentum, erasing gains made by Harris in recent months.
One poll of likely voters shows Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 48%, down from a six-point lead she held last month. Another poll of registered voters has them tied at 48%, a significant shift from Harris's previous five-point lead. A third survey of likely voters gives Harris a three-point edge, slightly down from her previous four-point advantage.
After Trump's lead over President Biden following a debate in late June, Biden's exit from the race and the Democrats rallying around Harris changed the dynamics. Harris saw a surge in fundraising and favorability ratings, surpassing Trump in polls. However, as summer turned to fall, Harris's ratings dipped, Republicans rallied around Trump, and the gender gap in support for the candidates widened.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse expressed concerns about Harris's campaign stalling and the perception of her as a continuation of the Biden administration. He warned that she might be risking victory.
While national polls provide insights, the election outcome depends on state battles for electoral votes. Polling in key battleground states that decided the 2020 election and will likely determine the 2024 winner also shows a close race.
A Political Research Center Director cautioned against interpreting poll movements as momentum, citing the need for more data points. The pollster conducting the surveys suggested the narrowing gap could be due to natural polarization in the country rather than momentum.
