ORLANDO, Fla. — More than 10 days before the official start of hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center is eyeing a second disturbance — this one much closer to the United States.
In its 8 p.m. EDT Thursday update, the NHC said it is monitoring a disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. It has a 20% chance of forming over the next five days. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana., the NHC said.
Out in the middle of the Atlantic, about 625 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, the first Atlantic disturbance of the year dropped from 90% to 80% on Thursday night.
The non-tropical low-pressure system was first identified early Wednesday within a broad area of cloudiness and thunderstorms in the mid Atlantic.
The disturbance has recently developed gale-force winds, according to satellite wind data. The system is expect move to turn westward and west-southwestward over a pocket of warm water either Thursday evening or early Friday allowing it to briefly take on a subtropical-cyclone status near the northeast of Bermuda, Beven said.
On late Sunday, the system is forecast to move north out of the warm pocket and into a hostile area of the Atlantic where it should lose some steam.
If either system develops into a subtropical or tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, it will be the first named storm of the year and receive the name Ana.
If Ana forms, it would do so over a week in advance of the start of hurricane season. That would be the sixth year in a row an early storm developed prior to June 1 and the third year in a row an early storm formed in May. Last year, Tropical Storm Arthur formed on May 16 near Florida, where it skirted by the peninsula as a tropical depression and formed into a tropical storm later out in the mid-Atlantic. On May 27, Tropical Storm Bertha formed; flying over Florida’s east coast as a tropical depression and then later gained enough steam to become a tropical storm before making landfall over South Carolina. It was the first time in four years two storms formed before hurricane season’s start.
The World Meteorological Organization has floated the idea of adjusting the start of hurricane season to an earlier date but has not officially made any plans to do so at this time.
As for the 2021 season, an early storm may not surprise meteorologists who are expecting an above-average, active season. An average season consists of 14 named storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Colorado State University estimates the 2021 season could have 17. AccuWeather also predicted a high estimate of 16-20 named storms. NOAA predicted 13 to 20 named storms including three to six major hurricanes.
Last year, meteorologists also made early predictions for an above-average season. At the end of the 2020 hurricane season, the NOAA recorded 30 named storms — the most ever observed in a single season.
