BALTIMORE — The Atlanta Braves announced on Monday that they signed strikeout-inducing starter Spencer Strider to a deal that could last through the 2029 season, keeping the rookie right-hander under team control one to two years beyond when he otherwise would have become a free agent.
With the agreement, Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman became the only young star expected to finish in the top two of either league’s Rookie of the Year voting without a long-term contract.
Two months before locking down Strider, Atlanta did the same with outfielder Michael Harris II via an eight-year, $72 million deal with team options for two more seasons. A week later, Seattle outfielder Julio Rodríguez, Rutschman’s main opposition for the American League honor, signed for $210 million guaranteed through 2029, with options and escalators that could result in a $470 million contract good through 2039. Strider’s agreement has six guaranteed years for $75 million, with a seventh-year club option that would push the total to $92 million.
As it stands, Rutschman, 24, is due to become a free agent after the 2028 season, with a right tricep strain that delayed his start to this season preventing him from spending a full year in the majors. But should he finish in the top two of AL Rookie of the Year voting, he would be awarded with a year of service time and reach free agency an offseason earlier. Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan, Kansas City infielder Bobby Witt Jr. and Houston shortstop Jeremy Peña are also considered candidates for votes, with each also not yet reaching a long-term agreement with his respective club.
The semantics over Rutschman’s service time become moot if the Orioles were to sign him to a deal of at least seven years to last through 2029, which would be his age-31 season. Under executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias, the only guaranteed multi-year contract the Orioles have doled out was left-hander John Means’ two-year, $5.93 million agreement that avoided arbitration after Means suffered a pitching elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery. That deal was announced the same day Rutschman was promoted.
The highest guaranteed dollar amount the Orioles have provided in a contract under Elias was $7.75 million in an arbitration-avoiding agreement with first baseman-designated hitter Trey Mancini. The Orioles paid only a portion of Mancini’s $7.5 million base salary before trading him in August to the Houston Astros, who would be responsible for the $250,000 buyout on the deal’s $10 million mutual option for 2023.
But since that trade, Elias has promised an increase in payroll come next season, though for negotiating and competitive purposes, he has understandably avoided declaring an exact figure it will rise to. He took a similarly mum approach when asked whether the Orioles have explored extensions with any of their players yet to reach salary arbitration, a group that includes Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, his successor as the game’s top prospect.
“My philosophy is that we look to do everything when it comes to player contracts, player acquisition, on a pretty case-by-case level,” Elias said last week. “There’s some things that make sense, and it takes two to tango, and we look at those, we talk about them. I think in order to best advance the objectives of the Orioles’ franchise and ballclub, which is what I try to do in my position, I, by nature, am quiet about our activities in those areas unless I’m forced not to be, and so if those conversations have happened or will happen, it’s not going to be something that I’m gonna get out there and telegraph because I also want the people I’m doing business with to know that I’m discreet about those activities, so we’ll see. It’s not something that you force, but if it makes sense for both sides, they tend to happen, and hopefully, we’ll have some of that.”
Baltimore’s end-of-season payroll of $64.8 million ranked 29th in Major League Baseball, according to Spotrac, ahead of only an Oakland Athletics team that had an AL-worst record of 60-102. The Orioles went 83-79 despite a payroll about $100 million below league average.
Rutschman was heavily responsible for that performance. The Orioles were 16-24 when they called him up May 21, then played at an 89-win pace with him on the roster. When Rutschman started at catcher, Baltimore was 50-34, a 96-win pace across a 162-game season.
A switch-hitter taken with the first pick in the 2019 draft, Rutschman set a record for Orioles rookies and catchers with 35 doubles, leading the club in that category and walks despite his 113 games played ranking as Baltimore’s eighth most. After his debut, only six major league position players accumulated more wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.
Securing a player of his ilk for years to come would provide both the fan base and the industry an action to back Elias’ words about a turn toward contention. But there are more immediate matters for the Orioles this offseason.
Even if Rutschman finishes first or second in Rookie of the Year voting, he would be two years away from being eligible for arbitration, a salary-increasing system for experienced players yet to reach free agency. The Orioles have six returning players eligible this offseason, with four of them — outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays, right-hander Dillon Tate, and shortstop Jorge Mateo — going through the process for the first time. MLB Trade Rumors projects that group, which also includes outfielder Anthony Santander and right-hander Austin Voth, to receive about $13.4 in combined raises from their 2022 salaries, with nearly a third of that increase going toward Santander in his third of four years of eligibility. Two recent waiver claims, catcher Cam Gallagher and outfielder Jake Cave — the latter claimed Tuesday with right-hander Jake Reed designated for assignment — are projected to receive $1 million and $1.2 million, respectively.
Beyond an extension for Rutschman or another player yet to reach arbitration, the only other internal increase of the Orioles’ roster payroll would be the club picking up the option in veteran starter Jordan Lyles’ contract; Lyles received $6 million this season and would get another $1 million if the Orioles decline the option, worth $11 million for 2023.
Externally, Elias said “significant investments” to the roster could come through both free agency and trades. In nearly five years leading the club’s front office, Elias has never traded players in Baltimore’s system for an established major leaguer, with Lyles’ contract being the largest he has given to a free agent, even without the option. Of course, this is the first offseason during his tenure the Orioles enter with plans to contend the following year.
But their efforts won’t be solely about 2023. As Elias has oft shown — doing so as recently as this trade deadline in dealing Mancini and All-Star closer Jorge López amid a wild-card pursuit that fell short — he operates with the Orioles’ long-term future at the center of his moves.
Arguably no move made this winter would benefit that future more than ensuring Rutschman is a part of it.
