SARASOTA, Fla. — The Orioles rebuilt like the Houston Astros. With that process finished, they plan to compete like the Tampa Bay Rays.
In recent weeks, Orioles CEO and Chairman John Angelos, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde have all declared Baltimore’s rebuild over. For Houston, that stage meant two World Series titles in six years. But to Angelos, it seems the Orioles’ efforts to model themselves after the franchise from which they plucked Elias and other organizational leaders have come to the end.
“I would be disappointed if we’re not the next Tampa,” Angelos said Sunday, also citing the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians as examples for the Orioles.
It’s been 75 years since one of those teams won a World Series.
The Astros’ six straight League Championship Series appearances are as many as Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland have combined since the turn of the century. Houston’s latest resulted in the franchise’s second title last year, with the club still receiving contributions from a core Elias helped build as a top deputy there. By the time Angelos hired him in November 2018, Elias oversaw amateur and international scouting and player development for Houston, helping to construct an “elite talent pipeline” he promised to replicate in Baltimore.
Given Elias’ presence and the collection of former Astros employees who have also come to Baltimore, the Orioles’ rebuild has long been linked to Houston’s. Neither Angelos nor Elias have ever outright declared the Orioles will be the “next Astros” or anything along those lines, though a team executive on the business side suggested every Orioles fan should read “Astroball” — a book detailing Houston’s path from rebuilding to the World Series — to understand Baltimore’s process in a 2019 interview with The Baltimore Sun.
Both that suggestion and the book itself were made before it came to light the Astros had a system in place to steal signs during their 2017 title run, resulting in the firings of manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow, for whom Elias had worked in both Houston and St. Louis. No Orioles employee was named in the league’s official report; both Elias and assistant general manager Sig Mejdal, also an Astros transplant, referred to the scandal as “disturbing.”
Those circumstances would understandably diminish any desire to connect the dots between the rebuilds, but the Astros have continued to thrive, and the similarities remain in place. Under Elias, the Orioles stripped down their major league roster, fielding non-competitive teams while instead investing in infrastructure such as international scouting, technology, analytics and player development, matching Houston’s approach. The result has been perhaps the top minor league system in baseball, with many of its members the products of early draft picks stemming from the major league team’s poor records or the returns from trades of the roster’s few experienced players.
As he did alongside Luhnow with the Astros, Elias inherited the majors’ worst team then oversaw three more seasons with a bottom-five record and payroll before unexpectedly breaking out. Houston’s 2015 season resulted in a playoff berth, while Baltimore’s 2022 campaign left it as the best American League team to fall short. After Elias swapped experienced players for prospects despite the Orioles being in the playoff hunt at last year’s trade deadline, he announced “it’s liftoff from here for this team.” The question then became how high it would fly. In terms of payroll, it seems doubtful the organization will match the top 10 figures the Astros have had each year since the 2017 World Series.
Houston began that season ranked 17th, tied for the lowest-ranked opening day payroll by an eventual champion in the previous 20 years; in the past decade, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland have three seasons combined in which they have ranked that high. In 2023, those three teams are projected to have bottom 10 payrolls, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The Rays have been higher than 25th only once since 2002, and although they’ve reached the playoffs eight times in that span — five more than Baltimore — they’ve made it past the AL Division Series only twice.
Angelos said the Orioles’ payroll, the second lowest of the league’s 30 teams at nearly $65 million, “probably” won’t ever match those of the New York Mets (ranked first), New York Yankees (second), Los Angeles Dodgers (fifth) or Boston Red Sox (14th), though it’s their first season since at least 2000 outside the top 10. “That’s not an Oriole thing; that’s a small, middle market team [thing],” Angelos said.
The San Diego Padres, playing in the media market ranked one spot above Baltimore, have a payroll of nearly $250 million that ranks third in the sport. Speaking to media Tuesday, Padres chairman Peter Seidler made clear, “We’re here to win a title.”
In a 37-minute meeting with reporters Sunday — the fifth time he’s met with local media as a group since hiring Elias in November 2018 — Angelos never directly expressed that desire, even when it was pointed out to him that none of the teams he wants the Orioles to be like have recently won a championship. He responded by saying Baltimore is “aiming for sustained success” to match those organizations, two of which have never won a World Series. Cleveland’s last title came in 1948.
Coming off last year’s championship, Houston is 10th in projected payroll, with a figure nearly three times that of Baltimore’s. Two of the Astros’ four highest-paid players, third baseman Alex Bregman and starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr., were Elias draftees. The team inked both to five-year deals and also gave long-term contracts to second baseman José Altuve, outfielder Yordan Alvarez and pitcher Cristian Javier, delaying when they will become free agents; only Altuve’s agreement came while Elias was still with the organization. The only guaranteed multi-year contract the Orioles have given out during Elias’ tenure went to left-hander John Means after he underwent Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery amid the arbitration process. The agreement did not buy out any of Means’ free-agent seasons.
The Astros have not kept their core fully intact. In recent years, they notably lost homegrown stars George Springer and Carlos Correa, whom Elias is largely credited for selecting as the first overall draft pick in 2012, in free agency. But they managed to win another World Series last year without them.
Each of the three teams Angelos mentioned has also given out a lengthy extension. After finishing in the top two of MVP voting in consecutive years, Christian Yelich got a nine-year, $215 million contract from Milwaukee. José Ramírez signed a seven-year, $141 million contract with Cleveland amid a 2022 season that produced his fourth Silver Slugger award in six years. After Wander Franco’s rookie season, he and the Rays agreed on an 11-year, $182 million extension. Being “the next Tampa” would be welcome if it means signing former No. 1 overall prospects to long-term deals, given Baltimore has Franco’s successors to that status in Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson.
But like nine-figure payrolls, these nine-figure contracts are the exceptions, not the rule, for those clubs. They have frequently moved on from core players, often as they’ve become expensive and approached free agency. Since the end of the 2020 season, Tampa Bay traded away Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, Cleveland dealt All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and — like Baltimore — Milwaukee parted with its All-Star closer at the trade deadline, moving Josh Hader despite being in the wild-card race and eventually coming short of the playoffs.
Wanting to operate like the franchises who make such moves suggests that, even if the Orioles have the “sustained success” Angelos said those teams do, fans might have to grow accustomed to losing players they’ve become attached to. Five years ago, they experienced the pain of Baltimore trading away Manny Machado. In the years to come, they could be forced through it again with Rutschman, Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez or any number of the young talents the rebuild has produced.
That group of players could be responsible for naturally increasing Baltimore’s payroll, all reaching arbitration and the accompanying raises in a similar timeframe. “It’s not my job to predict payroll,” Angelos said. Regardless of the veracity of that statement, that responsibility surely falls to someone in the Warehouse. The organization knows what its baseline payroll might be in coming seasons, and that likely affects how it’s operating now.
The Orioles ranked between ninth and 16th in payroll from 2011 to 2018, a window that includes both a five-year stretch in which they were the winningest team in the AL and the worst season in franchise history. It’s also a timeframe that features seasons the team was “over its means,” Elias said in December.
The hope throughout the rebuild was to create a team capable of long-lasting competitiveness. While Houston’s blueprint led to championships, it’s not clear the Orioles are determined to make the same investments to follow it that far.
