Aug Nymex natural gas (NGQ23) on Thursday closed +0.154 (+5.92%).
Nat-gas prices Thursday rallied to a 2-week high and closed sharply higher. A smaller-than-expected increase in weekly nat-gas stockpiles sparked a rally in nat-gas futures Thursday after EIA nat-gas inventories rose +41 bcf, below expectations of +45 bcf. Also, record-high temperatures in the western and southwestern U.S. are ramping up nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday was 100.3 bcf/day (+3.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Thursday was 74.3 bcf/day, +2.2% y/y, according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Thursday were 12.7 bcf/day or +1.6% w/w.
Nat-gas prices continue to be undercut by high inventories caused by weak heating demand during the abnormally mild winter. This past winter's warm temperatures caused nat-gas inventories to rise in Europe and the United States. Gas storage across Europe was 82% full as of July 17, well above the 5-year seasonal average of 67% full for this time of year. U.S. nat-gas inventories as of July 14 were +13.8% above their 5-year seasonal average.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is bullish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended July 15 rose +2.2% y/y to 94,718 GWh (gigawatt hours). However, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending July 15 fell -1.1% y/y to 4,062,708 GWh.
Thursday's weekly EIA report of +41 bcf for the week ended July 14 was bullish for nat-gas prices since it was below the estimate of +45 bcf. However, as of July 14, nat-gas inventories were up +23.7% y/y and +13.8% above their 5-year seasonal average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended July 14 fell by two rigs to 133 rigs, moderately above the 1-1/4 year low of 124 rigs from the week of June 30. Active rigs rose to a 3-3/4 year high of 166 rigs in September 2022. Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
