March Nymex natural gas (NGH25) on Wednesday closed down -0.268 (-6.42%).
March nat-gas on Wednesday tumbled to a 1-week low and closed sharply lower on the outlook for warmer US temperatures to reduce heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Maxar Technologies said Wednesday that forecasts have shifted warmer for the East Coast and parts of the central US for March 8-12.
Nat-gas prices have been whipsawed in the past several sessions by weather factors and have consolidated below last Thursday's 2-year high. However, nat-gas prices remain near the top of the February rally, which was driven mainly by the inventory drawdown caused by the recent cold weather. As of February 14, EIA nat-gas inventories were -5.3% below their 5-year average; the tightest supplies have been in over two years.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Wednesday was 106.6 bcf/day (+2.2 y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Wednesday was 83.1 bcf/day (+5.8% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Wednesday were 15.6 bcf/day (+0.8% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended February 22 rose +19.9% y/y to 90,673 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending February 22 rose +3.1% y/y to 4,230,167 GWh.
In a bullish longer-term factor for nat-gas prices, President Trump lifted the Biden administration's pause on approving gas export projects in January, thus moving into active consideration a backlog of about a dozen LNG export projects. Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is close to approving its first LNG export project, a Commonwealth LNG export facility in Louisiana. Increased US capacity for exporting LNG would boost demand for US nat-gas and support nat-gas prices.
The consensus is for Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories to fall -277 bcf, a larger draw than the five-year average for this time of year of -141 bcf.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 14 fell -196 bcf, a larger draw than expectations of -193 bcf and a larger draw than the 5-year average draw for this time of year of -145 bcf. As of February 14, nat-gas inventories were down -14.9% y/y and -5.3% below their 5-year seasonal average, signaling tight nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 40% full as of February 24, versus the 5-year seasonal average of 51% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending February 21 fell -2 to 99 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/2 year low of 94 rigs posted on September 6, 2024. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
