April Nymex natural gas (NGJ25) on Monday closed up +0.288 (+7.51%).
April nat-gas on Monday rebounded from a 1-1/2 week low and finished sharply higher on forecasts for cooler temperatures in the western half of the US, which will boost heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Maxar Technologies said Monday that below-normal temperatures are expected in the US West through March 17.
Nat-gas prices have been whipsawed over the past week by weather factors and have consolidated below the 2-year high posted on February 20. However, nat-gas prices remain near the top of the February rally, which was driven mainly by the inventory drawdown caused by the recent cold weather. As of February 21, EIA nat-gas inventories were -11.5% below their 5-year average; the tightest supplies have been in over 2-1/2 years.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 107.4 bcf/day (+4.4 y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 91.5 bcf/day (+27.3% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Monday were 15.1 bcf/day (-4.0% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended February 22 rose +19.9% y/y to 90,673 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending February 22 rose +3.1% y/y to 4,230,167 GWh.
In a bullish longer-term factor for nat-gas prices, President Trump lifted the Biden administration's pause on approving gas export projects in January, thus moving into active consideration a backlog of about a dozen LNG export projects. Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is close to approving its first LNG export project, a Commonwealth LNG export facility in Louisiana. Increased US capacity for exporting LNG would boost demand for US nat-gas and support nat-gas prices.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 21 fell -261 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -271 bcf but a larger draw than the 5-year average draw for this time of year of -141 bcf. As of February 21, nat-gas inventories were down -22.5% y/y and -11.5% below their 5-year seasonal average, signaling tight nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 40% full as of February 25, versus the 5-year seasonal average of 51% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending February 28 rose +3 to 102 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/2 year low of 94 rigs posted on September 6, 2024. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
