December Nymex natural gas (NGZ24) on Tuesday closed lower by -0.014 (-0.48%)
Dec nat-gas prices Tuesday fell back from a 6-week nearest-futures high and closed slightly lower. This fall, above-normal temperatures in the US have curtailed heating demand for nat-gas and allowed gas inventories to build, bearish factors for nat-gas prices. Nat-gas Tuesday initially moved higher after the Commodity Weather Group said forecasts had shifted colder for the central part of the US from November 22-26, which should boost heating demand for nat-gas. Nat-has prices also had carryover support Tuesday from a rally in European nat-gas prices to an 11-1/2 month high.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Tuesday was 98.7 bcf/day (-7.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Tuesday was 77.6 bcf/day (-6.1% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Tuesday were 13.4 bcf/day (+3.0% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended November 2 rose +1.24% y/y to 73,690 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending November 2 rose +1.56% y/y to 4,161,739 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 1 rose +69 bcf, above expectations of +68 bcf and well above the 5-year average build for this time of year of +32 bcf. As of November 1, nat-gas inventories were up +4.2% y/y and were +5.8% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 93% full as of November 10, slightly above the 5-year seasonal average of 92% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending November 8 was unchanged at 102 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/3 year low from September 6 of 94 rigs. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
