April Nymex natural gas (NGJ25) on Tuesday closed up +0.228 (+5.53%).
April nat-gas prices Tuesday rallied sharply for a second day and posted a 2-year high. Prices were supported by the outlook for cooler temperatures in the western half of the US, which would boost heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Maxar Technologies said Monday that below-normal temperatures are expected in the US during March 14-18.
Also, the beginning of US tariffs of 10% on Tuesday on Canadian nat-gas imports will put upward pressure on US nat-gas prices since US importers will have to pay those tariffs. In addition, the Canadian province of Ontario said it may impose a 25% export tariff on electricity it sends to 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan and New York if the US tariffs are kept in place, which would boost demand for domestic electricity generated by nat-gas.
Nat-gas prices have been whipsawed over the past week by weather factors and remain near the top of the February rally, which was driven mainly by the inventory drawdown caused by the recent cold weather. As of February 21, EIA nat-gas inventories were -11.5% below their 5-year average; the tightest supplies have been in over 2-1/2 years.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Tuesday was 106.3 bcf/day (+3.2 y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Tuesday was 82.4 bcf/day (+9.4% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Tuesday were 14.9 bcf/day (-4.5% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended February 22 rose +19.9% y/y to 90,673 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending February 22 rose +3.1% y/y to 4,230,167 GWh.
In a bullish longer-term factor for nat-gas prices, President Trump lifted the Biden administration's pause on approving gas export projects in January, thus moving into active consideration a backlog of about a dozen LNG export projects. Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is close to approving its first LNG export project, a Commonwealth LNG export facility in Louisiana. Increased US capacity for exporting LNG would boost demand for US nat-gas and support nat-gas prices.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 21 fell -261 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -271 bcf but a larger draw than the 5-year average draw for this time of year of -141 bcf. As of February 21, nat-gas inventories were down -22.5% y/y and -11.5% below their 5-year seasonal average, signaling tight nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 38% full as of March 2, versus the 5-year seasonal average of 49% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending February 28 rose +3 to 102 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/2 year low of 94 rigs posted on September 6, 2024. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
