March Nymex natural gas (NGH24) on Tuesday closed -0.033 (-2.05%).
Nat-gas prices on Tuesday fell to a new 3-1/2 year nearest-futures low and closed moderately lower. Nat-gas prices fell on the outlook for warm winter temperatures to expand throughout the U.S., curbing heating demand for nat-gas and boosting inventories. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Tuesday that "spring warmth will spread" across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Feb 25-29.
Nat-gas prices are also under pressure from the announcement by the Freeport LNG nat-gas export terminal in Texas on January 26 that it was forced to shut down one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of the unit will limit U.S. nat-gas exports and increase U.S. nat-gas inventories.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Tuesday was 102.7 bcf/day (+2.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Tuesday was 89.7 bcf/day (+12% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Tuesday were 13.2 bcf/day (-4% w/w), according to BNEF.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 55% chance the current El Nino weather pattern will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and weighing on nat-gas prices. AccuWeather said El Nino will limit snowfall across Canada this season in addition to causing above-normal temperatures across North America.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended February 10 rose +0.4% y/y to 75,587 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending February 10 fell -0.3% y/y to 4,099,349 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices as nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 9 fell -49 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -65 bcf and a much smaller draw than the five-year average for this time of year at -149 bcf. As of February 9, nat-gas inventories were up +11.9% y/y and were +15.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 65% full as of February 18, above the 5-year seasonal average of 49% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending February 16 was unchanged at a 5-month high of 121 rigs, moderately above the 2-year low of 113 rigs posted September 8. Active rigs have fallen back since climbing to a 4-1/2 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
