January Nymex natural gas (NGF24) on Monday closed up +0.012 (+0.48%).
Nat-gas prices Monday climbed to a 1-week high and closed slightly higher on forecasts for cooler U.S. temperatures that will boost heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Maxar Technologies on Monday said that U.S. weather forecasts have shifted slightly colder in the West from Dec 23-27 and more seasonable for the rest of the U.S. from previous forecasts for above-normal temperatures.
Last Wednesday, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 6-month low and have been under pressure over the past month as above-normal early winter U.S. temperatures have curbed heating demand for nat-gas and kept supplies elevated. Forecaster Maxar Technologies said updated weather forecasts have trended warmer and that above-normal temperatures are expected for most of the U.S. into the end of the year.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 55% chance the current El Nino weather pattern will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and weighing on nat-gas prices. AccuWeather said El Nino will limit snowfall across Canada this season in addition to causing above-normal temperatures across North America.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 104.6 bcf/day (+5.2% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 89.7 bcf/day (-17.2% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Monday were 15.0 bcf/day (+0.8% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in U.S. electricity output supports nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended December 9 rose +0.3% y/y to 75,237 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending December 9 fell -0.7% y/y to 4,093,153 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was neutral to slightly bearish for nat-gas prices as nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 8 fell -55 bcf, right on expectations but below the 5-year average draw of -81 bcf. As of December 8, nat-gas inventories were up +7.4% y/y and were +7.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 90% full as of December 11, above the 5-year seasonal average of 80% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended December 15 was unchanged at 119 rigs, just above the 19-month low of 113 rigs posted September 8. Active rigs this year have fallen back after climbing to a 4-year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
