November Nymex natural gas (NGX24) on Wednesday closed up +0.031 (+1.34%).
Nov nat-gas prices Wednesday rallied on the consensus for a +66 bcf rise in Thursday's weekly IEA inventory report, which would be less than the 5-year seasonal average rise for the week of +76 bcf.
Meanwhile, weather forecasts are mixed. Maxar said the 11-15 day forecast is leaning colder in the West but slightly warmer in the East.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Wednesday was 100.7 bcf/day (-3.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Wednesday was 71.4 bcf/day (-1.2% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Wednesday were 12.1 bcf/day (-13.0% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended October 19 rose +2.59% y/y to 70,893 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending October 19 rose +1.68% y/y to 4,160,757 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was neutral for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended October 11 rose +76 bcf, right on expectations but below the 5-year average build for this time of year of +96 bcf. As of October 11, nat-gas inventories were up +2.2% y/y and were +4.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 95% full as of October 20, above the 5-year seasonal average of 92% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending October 18 fell by -2 rigs to 99 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/3 year low from September 6 of 94 rigs. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
