March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are trending up +0.77% this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s losses, while investors turn their attention to a highly anticipated earnings report from AI darling Nvidia.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Sempra (SRE) plunged over -18% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q4 results and cut its FY25 EPS guidance. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) dropped more than -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after a Bloomberg report stated that some officials in the Trump administration are seeking to impose additional restrictions on the type of Nvidia chips that can be exported to China without a license. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) slumped over -8% after data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association showed that the company’s sales in Europe tumbled 45% in January from a year ago. On the bullish side, Solventum Corp. (SOLV) surged more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Thermo Fisher agreed to buy the company’s purification and filtration unit for about $4.1 billion.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to an 8-month low of 98.3 in February, weaker than expectations of 102.7 and marking the biggest monthly drop since August 2021. Also, the U.S. December S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. increased to +4.5% y/y from +4.3% y/y in November, stronger than expectations of +4.4% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to +6 in February, stronger than expectations of -3.
“Consumer confidence continues to come off its election-fueled sugar high from November. Economic uncertainty remains elevated, whether that’s around tariffs or more US-centric data like inflation or retail sales,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday that the central bank must stay resolute in its fight against inflation and highlighted the risk of longer-term inflationary headwinds. “It makes sense to stay modestly restrictive until we are more confident inflation is returning to our 2% target,” Barkin said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% probability of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
Meanwhile, prospects for early action on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax cut plans improved as the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget blueprint late on Tuesday that includes deep reductions in safety-net programs like Medicaid.
Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close. Sales of the company’s AI chip, Blackwell, will be in focus, with analysts eyeing future demand, especially after China’s DeepSeek claimed it could train competitive AI models with significantly fewer resources.
“Nvidia’s numbers could well be a make-or-break event for the market, at least in the short term,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Prominent companies like Salesforce (CRM), TJX (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), and Snowflake (SNOW) are also set to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. New Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee this figure standing at 679K in January, compared to 698K in December.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 2.500M, compared to last week’s value of 4.633M.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic throughout the day.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.304%, up +0.14%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.21% this morning as investors digested a flurry of corporate earnings reports. Mining stocks led the gains on Wednesday as copper prices soared after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled import tariffs on the metal. Food and beverage stocks also gained ground, with Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI.B.DX) climbing over +7% after it reported better-than-expected Q4 operating profit. A survey released on Wednesday showed that German consumer sentiment is set to decline heading into March, highlighting the persistent economic pessimism confronting the country’s new government. Separately, data from the national statistics agency Insee showed that France’s consumer morale improved slightly in February. Meanwhile, sentiment also improved following a Bloomberg report that Ukraine agreed with the U.S. to jointly develop its vast natural resources as part of a deal that could ease tensions with President Trump and support his administration’s push for a ceasefire with Russia. In other corporate news, Munich Re (MUV2.D.DX) gained more than +5% after surpassing its profit target and proposing a dividend hike. At the same time, Stellantis NV (STLAM.M.DX) slid over -4% after the automaker posted a 70% decline in full-year net profit.
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index and France’s Consumer Confidence data were released today.
The German March GfK Consumer Climate Index stood at -24.7, weaker than expectations of -21.7.
The French February Consumer Confidence came in at 93, in line with expectations.
Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.02%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.25%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, snapping a two-day losing streak as investor sentiment improved. Technology stocks outperformed on Wednesday as optimism grew that Beijing would allocate more resources this year to foster innovation amid intensifying China-U.S. rivalry. Premier Li Qiang urged more technological breakthroughs during a visit to the country’s largest state-owned telecom operators, according to China Central Television. Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday that China intends to inject at least 400 billion yuan ($55 billion) into some of its largest banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Communications, in the coming months, as part of a broader strategy to boost the economy. In other news, Hong Kong intends to allocate $129 million to establish a Hong Kong AI Research and Development Institute, Financial Secretary Paul Chan said in his annual budget speech. In corporate news, Budweiser Brewing climbed over +10% in Hong Kong after naming a new CEO to revive its struggling business. Investors are looking ahead to the “Two Sessions” meeting in early March for additional policy signals from Beijing.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and a stronger yen weighed on sentiment. The benchmark index initially dropped to a more than 4-month low but pared its losses by the close as investors looked to scoop up undervalued stocks. Chip stocks led the declines on Wednesday. Data from the Cabinet Office released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised downward in December. Meanwhile, Mizuho Securities economist Ryosuke Katagi stated that the Bank of Japan will likely continue raising interest rates to 1% if the results of annual wage negotiations in mid-March are as strong as last year. Investor attention is now on Nvidia’s earnings report later today to gauge the strength of the AI rally. Investors are also awaiting a slew of key economic data from the country on Friday, including industrial production, retail sales, and Tokyo core inflation, which could provide new insights into the BOJ’s future monetary policy. In corporate news, Japan Post gained about +0.6% after offering to acquire logistics company Tonami Holdings for about 92.6 billion yen ($619 million). The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +6.81% to 25.24.
The Japanese December Leading Index arrived at 108.3, weaker than expectations of 108.9.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) jumped over +26% in pre-market trading after the company filed its “delinquent” financial reports with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission just before the deadline.
ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) soared about +21% in pre-market trading after reporting solid Q4 results and issuing above-consensus FY25 guidance.
Workday (WDAY) surged more than +12% in pre-market trading after the human resources firm posted better-than-expected Q4 results.
Intuit (INTU) climbed over +8% in pre-market trading after the tax and accounting software company reported upbeat FQ2 results.
Axon Enterprise (AXON) gained more than +14% in pre-market trading after reporting stronger-than-expected Q4 results.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - February 26th
NVIDIA (NVDA), Salesforce Inc (CRM), TJX (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Synopsys (SNPS), CRH (CRH), Snowflake (SNOW), Verisk (VRSK), Agilent Technologies (A), eBay (EBAY), Heico (HEI), TKO Holdings (TKO), FirstEnergy (FE), Expand Energy (EXE), NRG (NRG), Invitation Homes (INVH), Pure Storage Inc (PSTG), EMCOR (EME), Nutanix (NTNX), Sun (SUI), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Western Midstream Partners (WES), Bentley (BSY), Lineage (LINE), Morningstar (MORN), FTAI Aviation (FTAI), Universal Health Services (UHS), Ovintiv (OVV), Api Group Corp (APG), UWM Holdings (UWMC), Essential Utilities (WTRG), Sarepta (SRPT), DT Midstream (DTM), Kinetik Holdings (KNTK), Chemed (CHE), ICL Israel Chemicals (ICL), Paramount Global (PARA), Revolution Med (RVMD), Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL), Madrigal Pharma (MDGL), FS KKR Capital (FSK), IONQ (IONQ), Corcept (CORT), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Southwest Gas Hold (SWX), Lantheus Holdings Inc (LNTH), Federal Signal (FSS), Option Care Health (OPCH), Icahn Enterprises (IEP), National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Cactus (WHD), CBIZ (CBZ), Marathon Digital (MARA), Ormat (ORA), Brinks (BCO), Crescent Energy (CRGY), Dorman (DORM), EPR Properties (EPR), Kratos Defense&Security (KTOS), Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH), C3.ai (AI), Clear Secure (YOU), Sweetgreen (SG), Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP), Rhythm Pharma (RYTM), Ambarella (AMBA), Excelerate Energy (EE), Avista (AVA), Sitio Royalties (STR), United Parks Resorts (PRKS), Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC), Chesapeake Utilities (CPK), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Greif Bros (GEF), Steven Madden (SHOO), Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Albany (AIN), Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX), Magnite (MGNI), Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM), Enovis (ENOV), Vita Coco (COCO), Ibotta (IBTA), Semrush Holdings (SEMR), Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM), Evertec Inc (EVTC), AvidXchange Holdings (AVDX), VSE Corporation (VSEC), Seadrill (SDRL), Certara (CERT), MYR Group (MYRG), Teladoc (TDOC), Hamilton Insurance (HG), Marqeta (MQ), Golden Ocean (GOGL), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), SJW (SJW), Arhaus (ARHS), Tuya (TUYA).
