In fact, not only does the race for the championship and the 15 playoff points that come with it have no clear favorite, but the driver best positioned to win is somewhat of a surprise.
Following his late-surge to victory in Sunday’s Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Kyle Larson returned to the top of the series standings and now holds a 10-point advantage over his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott.
Normally, the idea of Larson – a former series champion and one of the most talented drivers in the sport – would not be at all surprising but one for important distinction: He has run one less race then all the other contenders this season.
When Larson’s attempt to run “the Double” – the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 in the same day in May – was aborted because of weather in both locations, Larson was only able to complete the 500.
While NASCAR gave Larson a waiver for missing the race, he still collected zero points for the event. That means Larson has been competing on a level this season that keeps him ahead of his competition but basically having ran one less race than everyone else.
“I think the disappointment in the 600, not being able to finish that race, was extra motivation,” team owner Rick Hendrick said of Larson’s win on Sunday. “I’m glad that NASCAR gave us the waiver.
“I can’t tell you the disappointment we all had with the way that weekend ended up. I do think this was a celebration more than normal because of the disappointment we all had not finishing the job.”
Even with a series-high four wins, Larson is by no means certain to hang on to the points lead but the upcoming schedule bodes well for him.
At the final four tracks before the playoffs – Richmond, Michigan, Daytona and Darlington – Larson has won on all but Daytona and owns a collective six wins on the others.
Still, one slip-up could greatly alter the standings.
Elliott is only 10 points behind Larson but has led just one lap in the last four races. He looked like he could contend for wins the last two races but was hobbled by a penalty in each. He has no career wins on the four remaining tracks.
As far as momentum goes, Tyler Reddick could well have the best shot to catch Larson.
Reddick has racked up eight top-10 finishes in his last nine races and has put together five consecutive top-10s for the second time this season, which has powered his ride to third in the standings, 15 points behind Larson.
It’s an impressive run of consistency which could pay off handsomely. Although Reddick, too, has never won on the four upcoming tracks, he has been in contention to win several times in the last five races.
At one point this season, Denny Hamlin looked like he was cruising to the regular season title but has run into a rough stretch over the summer. He has finished 24th or worse in five of his last seven races.
Hamlin, who sits fourth in points and 43 behind Larson, has one big advantage those ahead of him don’t – he has won on all on four of the remaining tracks in the regular season. His collective 14 victories at those tracks includes a win in the spring Richmond race this year.
Hamlin and his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team have also looked like they could win at virtually every track this season.
Three other drivers remain within 100 points of Larson – Willilam Byron trails by 95 points, Martin Truex Jr. by 96 and Christopher Bell by 98.
They are longshots to be sure, but with every remaining contender having had to overcome some adversity this season, the title race is far from over.
