When Armenia called on Russia on Tuesday to step in after Azerbaijan launched “anti-terrorist” operations in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, it quickly became evident that the 2,000 Russian peacekeepers stationed there would stand aside.
Stationed along the key highway that runs through the contested area, Russian peacekeepers arrived in the region in 2020 under a five-year mandate after Moscow brokered the end of the previous conflict between the two countries.
With a military base in Armenia, Russia has long been the country’s security guarantor, including managing tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh, but as Azerbaijan launched its offensive on the mountainous breakaway region, Moscow made clear its troops had no intention of preventing Baku from pounding it.
“As long as the peacekeepers themselves are not threatened by anything, they have no right to use weapons,” the head of Russia’s parliamentary defence committee, Andrei Kartapolov, said on Tuesday, a statement echoed by other officials during the day.
The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, even appeared to tacitly approve Baku’s actions, saying Azerbaijan was acting “on its territory”.
Russia’s inaction in Nagorno-Karabakh is not new. Distracted by its war in Ukraine, Moscow was mostly passive when Azerbaijan established a new security checkpoint along the Lachin corridor last spring, cutting off the flow of people and goods between Armenia and the region.
“We do not criticise Russian peacekeepers, but we do express concern about their activities, and this concern has longstanding roots,” Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, said in January, as tensions between Yerevan and Moscow grew.
The relationship between the two traditional allies has since reached a historic low, as Pashinyan made several demonstrative moves criticising and distancing his country from Russia while courting influence in the west.
Armenia announced earlier this month that it was hosting US soldiers for an unprecedented joint military exercise. It has also sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which was delivered personally by Pashinyan’s wife, Anna Hakobyan.
Some Russian officials and prominent propagandists were gloating over the renewed fighting on Monday.
Dmitry Medvedev, the chair of Russia’s security council and Russia’s former president, lashed out at Pashinyan on Telegram for “flirting with Nato” and providing aid to Ukraine.
“Guess what fate awaits him … ” he said.
Russia Today’s editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, repeated similar rhetoric, writing that while Pashinyan was demanding that Russian peacekeepers protect Nagorno-Karabakh, he should expect Nato’s help.
Laurence Broers, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said: “Russian irritation with Armenia’s complaints against the Kremlin also adds an ideal backdrop for such an operation.”
Some observers speculated that by forcing Armenia to give up its hold on Nagorno-Karabakh, the Kremlin was looking to weaken or even overthrow Pashinyan.
As news came in on Wednesday morning that a ceasefire agreement had been reached a day after Azerbaijan launched its new offensive, Moscow appeared eager to project authority over the negotiations.
“Through the mediation of the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, an agreement was reached between the Azerbaijani side and representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh on a complete cessation of hostilities,” the defence ministry said in a statement.
“The implementation of the agreements will be carried out in coordination with the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent.”
Peskov also said Vladimir Putin would call Pashinyan, dismissing Armenia’s reproaches of Russia as “groundless”.
Still, Russia’s inability to safeguard Armenia’s interests is bound to have lasting consequences on the country’s standing in the region.
“If there is a desire to protect, they [Russia] protect, and if they don’t want to, they can find a thousand reasons,” the secretary of Armenia’s security council, Armen Grigoryan, said on Wednesday, summing up the mood in Yerevan.
Protesters in the capital were also heard shouting anti-Kremlin slogans on Tuesday evening as people gathered in the city’s central square. “Lavrov is a bitch. Putin is a dickhead,” some shouted.
