BUDGET UPDATE
We’re almost done for the year but first there’s the small matter of the mid-year budget update set to be delivered tomorrow.
Numerous places have been leading overnight on what we can expect (following on from the downgrading of company tax receipts flagged yesterday), with AAP reporting the country’s budget bottom line is set for a $25 billion hit as a result of extra spending, with “more than $16 billion in automatic spending increases, and $8.8 billion in ‘unavoidable’ spending to extend terminating measures”. The increased spending includes things like childcare subsidies, school funding and payments for veterans.
The newswire flags Finance Minister Katy Gallagher trying to soften the news by claiming the federal government has found $14.6 billion in additional savings and reprioritisations. “In this update, we have worked hard to find responsible savings while also dealing with the significant spending pressures we are facing,” she is quoted as saying.
“We are doing the right thing by our veterans, pensioners, school kids and Australians who rely on essential health programs, but the Coalition’s plan to cut $315 billion in spending would see cuts across all of these areas.”
The Coalition has countered, with shadow treasurer Angus Taylor criticising the government’s “reckless spending” and its impact on inflation and interest rates. The Australian quotes economist Chris Richardson as disagreeing with the notion the extra outlays couldn’t be avoided, saying governments “absolutely have a choice” to increase their expenditure.
Meanwhile, The Australian Financial Review reports government departments are being asked to defer spending beyond the next financial year to help with the size of budget deficits set to be revealed during the federal election campaign.
The paper says the mid-year budget update will “confirm it is back in deficit and will stay that way for the foreseeable future”. The AFR says the deficits predicted on Wednesday could grow if government spending increases and the Chinese economy slows. It quotes “bureaucracy sources” as claiming there is a consensus another budget will not be delivered in late March as scheduled and instead Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will go to an early election.
“That means this week’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, known as MYEFO, could be the last such document before the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO)”, the paper says. The deficits predicted would end the run of back-to-back surpluses.
Talking of the election (what will we talk about after it’s held? Answer: obviously, the election after that), Guardian Australia has polling this morning which suggests “Albanese has finished 2024 with his popularity in the doldrums”.
In its final Essential poll of the year, the site said the majority of respondents claimed Australia was on the wrong track, almost half said 2024 ended up being worse than they expected, and 40% said they were worse off than three years ago.
Apparently Albanese’s net approval rating is -11 and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s is 3. The site flags the Coalition leader’s popularity is very strong with men and -7 with women. Now where have we seen that type of personal polling before…?
ABC FUNDING BOOST
The ABC has reported overnight on the federal government increasing its funding and moving to legislate five-year financing terms.
The broadcaster says funding for the ABC will increase by more than $40 million a year from 2026-27. It adds the Labor government hopes to make it so the funding for the ABC and SBS is decided every five years, rather than the current three, to avoid “political interference”.
The ABC points out that laws need to be drafted and consulted on, so it’s unlikely they would be enacted before the next election.
A review commissioned into how the broadcasters are funded and board appointments made is due to be released this morning. Communications Minister Michelle Rowland declared: “The review has identified options to further support the independence of the ABC and SBS by strengthening funding and governance arrangements.”
Meanwhile, in an update on two of the main stories flagged in yesterday’s Worm, the Nine newspapers report a key member of Indonesia’s parliamentary justice committee has criticised the decision to allow the five remaining members of the Bali Nine to return to Australia on Sunday.
“This transfer of prisoners does not have legal basis at all,” Andreas Hugo Pareira is quoted as saying.
“It’s only based on a practical arrangement. What is this practical arrangement? Where does this practical arrangement sit in our legal system? The government needs to explain to the public why … this transfer of prisoners ignores the corrections law.”
The paper then goes on to flag that Pareira is a member of the opposition.
Elsewhere, AAP has spoken to legal experts about the release of the five men at the weekend and the challenges they face. Emeritus Professor David Brown said the “myriad of difficulties” they are set to face include “overcoming trauma; reconnecting with family and friends; gaining employment; managing technological and social change; dealing with their notoriety and facing media and public intrusion and harassment”.
The men were released after spending almost 20 years in prison in Indonesia following a botched drug smuggling plot.
The newswire also reports a mother and daughter are believed to be recovering back on Australian soil following a suspected poisoning in Fiji. Seven people in total were hospitalised, AAP says, including two others also believed to be Australians.
Fiji’s Deputy Prime Minister and Tourism Minister Viliame Gavoka told the ABC’s 7.30 program: “It’s the first time we’ve seen something like this in Fiji. So we are really determined to find out what the reason [for the suspected poisoning] is.”
The ABC reported it was previously “told some of the guests started having fits, chills and tremors after drinking the pina coladas on Saturday afternoon at the Warwick Resort”.
Gavoka said “In the same bar, there were many pina coladas served that evening”, adding there were no reports of “ill effects” at the resort’s four other bars.
The broadcaster flags updated travel advice for those travelling to Fiji by the Australian government which warns people to look for the potential risks of “drink spiking and methanol poisoning” when consuming alcoholic beverages.
Finally, Guardian Australia quotes analysts who claim 1.7 billion extra tonnes of carbon dioxide would be emitted between now and 2050 under the Coalition’s much-debated nuclear energy plan compared to Labor’s renewables-focused approach.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
The BBC is in the process of revealing its 100 favourite heartwarming stories of the year.
To be honest, I think they’ve done bloody well to find 100 happy stories in the dumpster fire of a year that was 2024, so it’s worth highlighting a few of their finds.
At number one (it’s not clear if they are ranked) they’ve placed the 100 couples getting married on the same day to mark the 100th anniversary of a wedding venue (a story we covered in a previous Worm in October). Disclaimer: it may be placed at number one because the guy writing the BBC live blog of the 100 nicest stories was one of the couples who got married.
Also in the first ten are a man whose best friend is a duck, Christmas jumpers knitted for gritter lorries, the nervous father-of-the-bride who forgot to collect his daughter as he walked down the aisle, and the baby with the incredible Scouse accent who went very viral this year.
Well done for finding so much lighter news I say.
Say What?
First, my departure from Syria was neither planned nor did it occur during the final hours of the battles, as some have claimed.
Bashar al-Assad
The former Syrian president has reportedly released a statement via Telegram claiming he wanted to stay and fight rebel forces but was evacuated by the Russian army when the airbase he was at came under attack, The New York Times reports.
CRIKEY RECAP
Peter Dutton’s steady progress away from the traditions of his own party continued in Friday’s nuclear policy costings, one of the more disingenuous documents foisted on Australians by either party for quite some time.
While experts rapidly spotted the deep flaws, bizarre assumptions and inconsistencies in the freebie modelling performed by the Coalition’s longtime advisers at Frontier Economics — and the implications for Australia’s millions of solar rooftop owners — the problems were so apparent that mainstream media commentators spotted them. Even right-wing economists tore the numbers apart.
Given that the job of the Coalition and Frontier Economics was to invent a set of numbers to claim that a build-from-scratch nuclear power industry would be cheaper than renewables with storage — when the objective truth is the latter is far cheaper — it’s unsurprising the modelling was so shambolic.
The more likely motivation for allowing deductible commercial deals is they favour the largest media companies, particularly News Corp, Seven and Nine, which will continue to reap the most revenue from the arrangement. With an election approaching next year, one suspects Anthony Albanese was loath to pick a fight with them.
Once again, Australian media policy seems to have conformed to the golden rule: “what News Corp wants, News Corp gets”. Some things change, others stay the same.
While other media outlets suck up to the rich and powerful under the guise of a “list”, this year Crikey wants to recognise a higher honour: being a shitstirrer.
We’ve assembled our inaugural 2024 Shitstirrers Index for the 10 people who were the biggest nuisance to powerful people, drawn from more than 1,000 nominations from our readers (let’s just say the term resonated).
The hallmark of a true shitstirrer is that you know one when you see one. But given we were inundated with names, the council considered a few questions to help separate the good from the truly great shitstirrers.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Close to 1,000 feared dead after Cyclone Chido hits Mayotte (Sky News)
‘Chinese spy’ who was close to Prince Andrew named as Yang Tengbo (The Telegraph) ($)
Rescuers work to save Italian caver trapped 585m underground (The Guardian)
What we know about mysterious drone sightings (CNN)
Woman sentenced for hurling milkshake at Farage (BBC)
Canada finance minister and deputy PM quits amid Trump rift (Capital Brief)
THE COMMENTARIAT
The Coalition’s nuclear energy plan takes a sharp turn away from a cheaper, cleaner future — Simon Holmes à Court (Guardian Australia): Howard’s modest renewable energy target was surely more successful than he ever intended, in great contrast to the 22 failed energy policies the Coalition famously held during its last tenure. Its latest energy policy began shortly after the last election, when in August 2022 Peter Dutton tasked Ted O’Brien to “examine the potential for advanced and next-generation nuclear technologies to contribute to Australia’s energy security and reduce power prices”. We had to wait until Friday for the costings, published after many of the country’s journalists had filed their last stories for the year.
Here are four reasons why in my opinion the costings, prepared by Frontier Economics, completely undermine the Coalition’s 23rd energy plan.
Nuclear play snares energy industry in political pincers — Jennifer Hewett (AFR): So Jim Chalmers attacks Peter Dutton’s proposal to build seven nuclear power plants as “economic insanity” and the opposition leader insists that Labor’s “renewables only” policy would cost Australians hundreds of billions more and also lead to power blackouts or brownouts.
For most households and businesses, the salient point is that Australian energy prices will continue to go up while the system’s reliability goes down. That will be the case under either party’s policy — at least in the short term.
In the longer term, none of the options for Australia’s future energy needs are cheap. Nor are any of them currently ready to meet the increasing volatility of the energy market.
