A new “grassroots” political movement called the Muslim Vote says it will back at least three independent candidates aiming to topple Labor ministers and the government whip in western Sydney at the next federal election.
The Muslim Vote – established in response to community anger at Labor’s handling of the war in Gaza – plans to back candidates in Watson, Blaxland and Werriwa, a spokesperson said on Tuesday.
Labor’s leader of the house, Tony Burke, has held Watson since 2004 while the minister for education, Jason Clare, has been the MP for Blaxland since 2007. The government whip, Anne Stanley, has held Werriwa since 2016.
The electorates have been held by Labor for decades along with other safe western Sydney seats the party relies on at federal polls.
The seats have large migrant communities and a Muslim Vote spokesperson told Guardian Australia the group was seeking to shake things up so communities were better represented.
The self-described “grassroots movement” was working to mobilise volunteers who would support the independent candidates. Other seats that could be targeted include McMahon and Parramatta.
The organisation was also looking to back lower house candidates in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and the ACT.
The first high-profile independent was due to be announced later this week, the Muslim Vote said on Tuesday. A second candidate was to be revealed early next week.
The spokesperson, who talked on the condition of anonymity, said they had been approached by various organisations seeking to support independent candidates and were working with local communities regarding who might stand.
The Muslim Vote website states it is focused on “justice for Palestine” and that “the Australian Muslim community is uniting”.
The spokesperson told the Guardian: “This is about shifting power. Our votes are not for sale but they are for lease. All future leaders should be warned not to take our community’s vote for granted.”
In recent days, Muslim groups have come out in support of Western Australia Labor senator Fatima Payman who says she has been “exiled” by the party and colleagues after stating she might cross the floor again on votes relating to Palestinian statehood.
Anthony Albanese suspended Payman indefinitely from Labor’s caucus after an ABC interview on Sunday when the senator said she would cross the floor if faced with another motion to recognise Palestine.
Mahmud Hawila, a prominent Muslim barrister and supporter of the Muslim Vote, said the group had mobilised “thousands” of volunteers and held community consultations.
“They have a register of thousands of volunteers, they have an established social media campaign, and a lot more going on offline,” Hawila said.
“They have door knocked, they have conducted polling, they have surveyed. They have campaign experts as well as senior political advisors who are on board and advising the movement.
“Right now they are finalising their support for candidates and are looking to step up in the coming weeks.”
Hawila said the federal government should be “very concerned” about the movement’s potential to energise voters who may have turned against Labor.
“So many members of the community feel Labor are out of touch with the reality on the ground – that their position on Israel has isolated them. This isn’t just about the Muslim vote. There are many concerns about Labor policies, on housing, climate and cost of living.”
Electoral analyst Ben Raue said wins in Labor’s heartland would be difficult but the party’s vote would be “eroded”.
“Nationally, the Labor party vote is very low. The primary vote for Labor to win the last election was about 33% – that was a really low level.
“Chipping away at their vote could cause problems for Labor. Labor’s already lost one seat to an independent in western Sydney with Dai Le in Fowler.”
Raue said there wasn’t otherwise a history of independents succeeding in western Sydney seats but that could change over time.
“Often these things build slowly. There is certainly potential for something to happen here.”
Watson is held by Burke with a margin of 15.1%. Muslims make up 25.1% of the population in the seat. Blaxland, held by Clare, has a margin of 14.9% and a Muslim population of 31.7%.
