People working in the music sector will lose almost a quarter of their income to artificial intelligence within the next four years, according to the first global economic study examining the impact of the emerging technology on human creativity.
Those working in the audiovisual sector will also see their income shrink by more than 20% as the market for generative AI grows from €3bn (A$4.9bn) annually to a predicted €64bn by 2028.
The findings were released in Paris on Wednesday by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (CISAC), representing more than 5 million creators worldwide.
The report concluded that while the AI boom will substantially enrich giant tech companies, creators’ rights and income streams will be drastically reduced unless policymakers step in.
The Australian and New Zealand governments were singled out by the CISAC president, former ABBA band member Björn Ulvaeus, who said the two countries were leading the world in shaping policies that will safeguard creators in the face of generative AI.
“In Australia, the new senate select committee on AI report is encouraging and promising,” Ulvaeus said in a statement.
“By setting a gold standard in AI policy, one that protects creators’ rights while fostering responsible and innovative technological development, Australia and New Zealand can ensure that AI serves as a tool to enhance human creativity rather than replace it.
“The world is watching, and the decisions made will resonate far beyond these shores.”
The Senate select committee inquiry in Canberra released its final inquiry into the future impact of AI last week. Among the report’s 13 recommendations was the call for the introduction of standalone AI legislation and greater protection for creative workers.
Dean Ormston, the chief executive of the Australian music rights management organisation Apra Amcos, said the global report recognised the incredible opportunities AI presented but also laid bare the urgent need for action from governments around the world to protect creatives rights and incomes.
“It’s creators who stand to lose the most,” he said in a statement.
“Our industry thrives on human creativity. Our songwriters, composers and music publishers are the heart of what makes Australian and New Zealand cultural exports so distinctive.
“We must ensure strong protections for their work, especially Indigenous Cultural and Intellectual Property, so that AI platforms respect protocols and enhances rather than exploits First Nations culture. The Australian and New Zealand governments need to take the lead and act decisively to protect the livelihoods of creators and the future of our creative industries.”
The study concluded that under current regulatory frameworks in most countries, creators stand to lose on two fronts. Unauthorised use of their works by generative AI models will eat into remuneration earned through copyright, while at the same time work opportunities will shrink as AI-generated outputs become more competitive against human-made works.
The report predicted that by 2028, exponential growth in generative AI music would account for about 20% of traditional music streaming platforms’ revenues, and about 60% of music libraries’ revenues.
AI developers and providers in the music industry stand to gain €4bn (up from €0.1bn in 2023) while developers and providers in the audiovisual sector stand to gain €5bn over the same period.
It will be revenue “derived directly from the unlicensed reproduction of creators’ works, representing a transfer of economic value from creators to AI companies”, the report warned.
“AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities – but we have to accept that, if badly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great damage to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods,” Ulvaeus said.
“Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome? This will be determined in large part by the choices made by policy makers, in legislative reviews that are going on across the world right now.
“It’s critical that we get these regulations right, protect creators’ rights and help develop an AI environment that safeguards human creativity and culture.”
