Avid fans of Hollywood's "night of nights" will know that picking Oscar winners seems incredibly easy … right up to the point where it's not.
For every easy pick — Leonardo DiCaprio winning for The Revenant, Return Of The King winning everything — there are the results that no-one saw coming, such as Marisa Tomei's best supporting actress win in 1993 and Shakespeare In Love beating Saving Private Ryan.
So how do you predict an Academy Award win? Do you go with the heart or the head? Do you use a formula or the feels?
To answer this question, we've brought in two experts from either end of the analytical spectrum.
In one corner, the film reviewer, namely Luke Goodsell, who has critiqued movies for the ABC, The Monthly, Empire Magazine, and more.
In the other corner, American mathematician Ben Zauzmer, who turned his passion for figures and films into the book Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.
Here are their predictions for the Oscars — which take place on Monday from 11am AEDT.
Best picture
The critic says: Everything Everywhere All At Once
A month ago this seemed up for grabs, but with a PGA (Producers Guild of America), Critics Choice, and SAG (Screen Actors Guild) sweep, it's hard to see this going any other way. It's feeling like a film of the moment, and while there are better films nominated (Elvis and The Fabelmans, for starters), it's hard to begrudge this choice.
The mathematician says: Everything Everywhere All at Once
With the most nominations of any film, and wins from nearly every major precursor aside from the BAFTAs, this is the clear film to beat this year. My model gives it just over a 2-in-3 chance.
Best director
The critic says: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are the favourites here (for Everything Everywhere All At Once) but something tells me it's going to be Spielberg. A beloved director making a film about his formative life as a director, featuring one iconic director (David Lynch) as another director (John Ford)? Did I mention directing?
The mathematician says: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Why they'll win: Thanks to numerous wins this awards season, including from the mostly reliable Directors Guild, the Daniels are in pole position.
Best actor
The critic says: Austin Butler (Elvis)
It's a dead heat between Butler and Brendan Fraser (The Whale), but I suspect more voters will have seen (and liked) Elvis than The Whale, and whatever the merits of Fraser's performance, surely some Academy members will be queasy about awarding a fat-suit performance at this point. Plus, there's the precedent of Jamie Foxx and Rami Malek: Oscars love leading actors playing music icons.
The mathematician says: Austin Butler (Elvis)
He's a BAFTA and Golden Globe (Drama) winner, and my model likes that resumé just a bit more than that of his closest competitor, Brendan Fraser in The Whale.
Best actress
The critic says: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
I'll admit part of this is just me wanting to see Yeoh win, not so much for the film but as a kind of career recognition, and it might be that voters feel the same, especially if the expanded global membership that the Academy has welcomed in recent years votes in her favour. Of course, it's a complete toss-up between Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, who is very impressive and equally deserving.
The mathematician says: Cate Blanchett (Tar)
She was on a roll until the final couple of awards, when Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) made a late push. Not enough to be the mathematical favourite, but definitely enough to warrant serious consideration when filling out those Oscar pools.
Best supporting actor
The critic says: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Quan has had this in the bag for weeks, and his moving acceptance speeches, starstruck selfies, and genuine humility have only solidified him as the favourite (even though we all know this is a legacy award for Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, which he absolutely deserves).
The mathematician says: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
This is the only acting race that one could call "easy" to pick this year, and even in this one, Ke Huy Quan still lost the BAFTA, so it's far from certain he wins the Oscar.
Best supporting actress
The critic says: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
After her SAG upset, I would not be surprised to see Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) repeat here, but I'm sticking with Bassett to (insert "do the thing" gag here). Her last nomination was in 1993 (for playing Tina Turner), and her nod for Wakanda Forever — a muddled film in which she gives a fine, if hardly career-best performance — feels closer to lifetime-achievement terrain. She's overdue.
The mathematician says: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
As if the two-person races weren't hard enough, this race has three legitimate contenders in Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin). But it's the Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner who has the inside track to becoming the first-ever Oscar winner from a Marvel movie.
Best original screenplay
The critic says: Everything Everywhere All At Once
The mathematician says: This is an extremely close race, with Everything Everywhere All at Once holding the narrowest of leads over The Banshees of Inisherin.
Best adapted screenplay
The critic says: Women Talking
The mathematician says: Women Talking is the mathematical favourite, but don't rule out All Quiet on the Western Front.
Best animated feature
The critic says: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
The mathematician says: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio. The math says it's the single biggest favourite of the night.
Best international feature
The critic says: All Quiet On The Western Front
The mathematician says: All Quiet on the Western Front. It's not a slam dunk, but it's nominated up and down the board, which none of its competitors are.
