Mountain West Football: Boise State Leads Final 2022 SP+ Projections
The final revision of Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric finds the Broncos in front of a field with four Mountain West teams in the top 60.
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Get ready for a fun race to the top.
Now that Week 0 is officially less than a week away, ESPN’s Bill Connelly provided the last update to his preseason SP+ projections this morning, a way to examine the sport’s most efficient teams in a manner that adjusts for opponents and tempo.
Unlike the first rankings released in February and the first revision unveiled in late May, some adjustments to how things are measured, explained in more detail by Connelly on Twitter but summed up as “[letting] the results speak for themselves a bit more”, meant big moves for a handful of teams in the conference.
- 35. Boise State — #69 offense, #12 defense (+8 from February/May)
- 45. Fresno State — #43 offense, #45 defense (-6 from February, -8 from May)
- 53. Air Force — #64 offense, #44 defense (+12 from February, +11 from May)
- 59. San Diego State — #91 offense, #27 defense (+8 from February/May)
- 77. Utah State — #55 offense, #94 defense (+14 from February/May)
- 95. San Jose State — #121 offense, #59 defense (+1 from February, -12 from May)
- 96. Colorado State — #109 offense, #71 defense (-10 from February, -9 from May)
- 111. Wyoming — #125 offense, #86 defense (-26 from February, -7 from May)
- 116. Nevada — #102 offense, #114 defense (+4 from February, +1 from May)
- 117. UNLV — #112 offense, #108 defense (-8 from February, -7 from May)
- 123. Hawaii — #101 offense, #129 defense (-1 from February, -2 from May)
- 125. New Mexico — #131 offense, #81 defense (+1 from February/May)
At the top of the conference, Boise State leapfrogs Fresno State for the number one projection after being second in both February and May, while Air Force and Utah State make double-digit climbs themselves up the rankings. By contrast, the Wyoming Cowboys see far and away the largest decline of any Mountain West team, followed by San Jose State, the aforementioned Bulldogs, and the UNLV Rebels.
Overall, the Mountain West as a whole ranks seventh among the FBS conferences in terms of average rating, ahead of the Sun Belt and behind the American Athletic Conference, coming out ahead on defense in particular. One measure that weighs the conference down as a whole is returning production, where the average figure of 53.7% ranks last:
- 15. Fresno State — 77% returning production (81% offense, 72% defense)
- 30. Boise State — 71% (69% offense, 81% defense)
- 58. San Jose State — 65% (57% offense, 72% defense)
- 63. UNLV — 64% (64% offense, 64% defense)
- 67. Air Force — 63% (66% offense, 60% defense)
- 81. New Mexico — 60% (49% offense, 72% defense)
- 86. Colorado State — 59% (46% offense, 73% defense)
- 100. San Diego State — 55% (44% offense, 66% defense)
- 122. Utah State — 47% (55% offense, 39% defense)
- 129. Wyoming — 35% (32% offense, 38% defense)
- 130. Hawaii — 27% (33% offense, 21% defense)
- 131. Nevada — 22% (18% offense, 25% defense)
