Apple customers are famously loyal—but it turns out they’re also slow to upgrade.
A just-released Bank of America survey of over a million iPhone users from the U.S., the U.K., India, and China found that most of them have old phones. Some 29% of users own an iPhone from the iPhone 13 family, which came out in September 2021, while 13% own an iPhone from the iPhone 12 family, which came out in October 2020, and 31% own an iPhone that’s even older than that.
Put differently, less than a quarter of iPhone users bought their devices within the past three years—bad news for the company’s flagship product.
With iPhone demand falling over 10% in the first quarter of this year to a six-year low, tech experts and Wall Street analysts have criticized Apple for not giving users a reason to upgrade their old phones, and for lagging behind peers when it comes to new hardware and software offerings.
iPhone sales are critical for Apple, accounting for more than 50% of the company’s revenue in the second quarter. But Bank of America analysts say that iPhone users' aging phones could signal opportunity for Apple stock.
“We are raising our [price target] on Apple to $256 (from $230) on increased confidence of a multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle driven by an aging installed base and GenAI features that should provide a boost to customers' intentions to upgrade,” analysts led by Wamsi Mohan wrote in a Thursday note to clients. Apple shares currently trade around $232, implying a potential 12-month return of just over 10% for investors if BofA’s price target proves prescient.
This new bullish report from BofA comes after its analysts argued in May that Apple will slowly turn its iPhones into AI-enabled "intelliphones" with more processing power and new applications, forcing customers to upgrade. The following month, Apple revealed a few key features at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) that they hope will convince customers to buy new phones, including a new-and-improved version of Siri that will use AI tech called Apple Intelligence.
Perhaps in response to complaints about its lagging hardware development, Apple also announced it will release a slimmed-down version of its iPhone next year in June, and reports indicate a flip phone similar to those offered by Samsung may also be coming soon.
Beyond the coming rollout of new AI software features and hardware upgrades, Wamsi and his team pointed to Apple’s steady customer loyalty as key to their bullish outlook.
The analysts’ survey of Apple customers showed 58% of current iPhone users intend on buying another iPhone when they upgrade their current device, compared to just 53% for Samsung, 38% for Huawei, and 31% for Xiaomi.
Wamsi and his team argued that there could be strong demand for upgrades among wearable tech users as well. When smartwatch owners were asked which device they plan to buy when they upgrade, the Apple Watch was far and away the most mentioned option.
Some 66% of Indian smartwatch users who plan to upgrade say they will buy an Apple Watch, compared to 59% in China, 57% in the U.S., and 41% in the U.K.
Similarly, BofA’s analysts found consumers are more willing to buy the Apple Vision Pro than previously expected, despite its hefty price tag. Some 14% of respondents in the U.S. reported that they are planning on buying the Apple Vision Pro, compared to 20% in China, 36% in India, and 8% in the U.K. BofA’s analysts said they view these as high percentages, noting they’re all well above the February survey figures.
