Millions of Brazilians are voting in the most momentous election in the country’s recent history amid great uncertainty over the outcome and deep trepidation about what will unfold in the aftermath.
The latest opinion polls gave Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left-wing former leader widely known as Lula, a lead of between 4 and 8 per cent over the hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro.
This should, in theory, point towards a slender victory for Lula following a bitter election race filled with accusations and recriminations. The polls, however, played a part in inaccurate predictions that the 77-year old would win in the first round with the backing of more than 50 per cent of the electorate. Officials in his team have been cautious about claiming victory in the presidential run-off.
There is also apprehension that Mr Bolsanaro, who has already claimed that he faces the election being “stolen” from him, may refuse to accept a narrow defeat.
A victory for Mr Bolsonaro, who likes to be referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics,” would reinforce deep scars within Brazil and fuel international concerns about the fate of the Amazon days before the Cop27 climate summit begins amid warnings from the UN that crucial global warming targets are set to be missed.
Mr Bolsanaro’s time in office has seen a sharp rise in mining, logging and fire clearances in the Amazon enabled by 600 regulatory changes by his government. Data from the Brazilian space research agency, Inpe, revealed that in just the last 12 months deforestation in the Amazon increased by 64 per cent, affecting an area larger than New York City. This follows the loss of 8.4 million acres, an area larger than Belgium, in the first two years of his presidency.
Mr Bolsanaro, a 67-year old former army captain, cast his vote early on Sunday at a poling station in a military complex in Rio de Janerio, where he declared: “I’m expecting our victory. That will be for the good of Brazil, God willing Brazil will be victorious today.”
Those voting against Mr Bolsonaro fear what will happen whether he wins or loses.
“Of course I am worried, very worried” said Wilson, a maintenance engineer, as he waited to cast his vote for Lula in Sao Paolo. “I am 55 years old and I have never seen our country so polarised, so divided. There is a genuine prospect that Bolsonarowill call his people out on to the streets of he loses. He has a lot of violent supporters. I have not put up any posters for Lula at my home or in my car for safety reasons.
“I know some people who support Bolsonaro and it is impossible to debate matters with them rationally. They think that the warnings about what is happening to the Amazon is just a communist conspiracy; that’s the level we are talking about.”
Wilson’s daughter Marina, a 24-year old student at Sao Paolo University, was also concerned about what the continuation of Mr Bolsanaro’s authoritarian administration could bring. “I study biology and of course we should all be worried by what’s happening to the Amazon. But people are being fed all kinds of conspiracy theories. It is an organised denial of truth”, she said.
Marina hoped the violence feared by her father and others will not take place. But she will stay at home after the results come out: “We hope that people will be sensible, that any disputes will be settled through the courts. But one can’t be certain and I won’t be going out for the time being.”
Mr Bolsonaro and his supporters have been regularly accused of peddling falsehoods through social media and this week the supreme electoral court, the supervising body for the vote, ordered that Lula must be given the opportunity to respond to the misinformation. This has resulted in the challenger getting a significant amount of air time on television and radio in closing stages of the campaign.
But some of those in Lula’s team remained troubled over the result on polling day. “I fear we have run an analogue campaign at a digital age,” one campaign official said. “Will this broadcast time really have that much of an impact at this stage? A lot of people have swallowed these lies unfortunately, and their minds are not going to be changed.”
The official felt the campaign had spent too much time talking to Lula’s natural supporters, and not enough reaching out to those backing Mr Bolsanaro. They also felt the failure to win in the first round, as the polls had predicted, had deflated the campaign.
“Now the challenge is not just to win, but win with a significant margin. A tight win is very likely to lead to rejection of the vote by Mr Bolsonaro and then he will take the Trump route”, the official said.
As the campaign drew to a close this week, Donald Trump intervened to urge Brazilians voters to block Lula, who he depicted as “a radical left lunatic who will quickly destroy your country”. The former US president, who still insists that he beat Joe Biden in America’s 2020 election, had previously stated: “Jair Bolsonaro and I have become great friends over the past few years for the people of the United States... He is a wonderful man and has my complete and total endorsement.”
Heitor Machado, a Bolsonaro supporter, fully supported Trump’s views. “Lula is dangerous, he is playing at democracy to get into power. If he gets in, he will dismantle all the checks, we will go the way of Venezuela and Cuba, you will see”, he said.
But while he welcomed Mr Trump’s endorsement for his candidate, Machado, a 39-year old construction contractor, deplored “interference” by other foreigners.
A group of American actors, including Samuel Jackson, Robert Downey Jr and Mark Ruffalo have tweeted their support for Lula while criticising Mr Bolsonaro over Amazon deforestation and his Covid denial, which contributed to 700,000 Brazilians dying in the pandemic. “True science makes us stronger, please vote on Sunday for brave and open minds and strong and healthy families” wrote Downey Jr.
“Who are these are rich Hollywood stars lecture us? What right have they got to do that?” Machado demanded. “The reasons the North Americans don’t want us to make use of the Amazon is not some holy thing about the environment, it’s because they want to keep South America poor and American companies can make money out of us.”
Machado and his friend Carlos Azevedo, also in the construction business, said they will be out on the streets if there are attempts to hijack the election.
Asked whether they would be armed, and if they were aware that some Lula supporters are very worried about what may happen, Azevedo responded: “The president made some [gun] controls easier. This was to enable us to defend ourselves against criminals who had an easy time under Lula. We protect ourselves, we are not going to act in an aggressive way towards anyone. No one needs to be afraid of us or anyone else: this is just alarm being spread through the media.”
But the rhetoric used by Mr Bolsonaro and his followers has spurred some into mobilising themselves for Lula. “If people don’t vote and Bolsonaro gets in, then they only have themselves to blame”, said 29-year-old Maria Goncalves, who has taken her neighbours to vote for Lula. “This might be the most important election in our lives.”
