WASHINGTON _ As Californians weigh their options ahead of the state's March 3 primary, Democrats are increasingly considering electability when deciding which candidate to support.
A recent survey of likely primary voters found 55% of California Democrats care more about finding a candidate who can beat President Donald Trump, while 38% prefer someone whose policy views come closest to theirs, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
With less than 100 days until the vote, the 15 Democrats still in the race are making their case to voters about why they are the best person to take on Trump. Here's a breakdown of the top four candidates:
JOE BIDEN
Former Vice President Joe Biden is most strongly pressing the electability argument, persistently contrasting himself with Trump and insisting he's best positioned to beat him by winning key swing states.
In the candidate's words: "I plan on campaigning in the South. I plan on, if I'm your nominee, winning Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, believe it or not, and I believe we can win Texas and Florida, if you look at the polling data now." (Biden at a June event in Washington, D.C. event for the Poor People's Campaign)
National polling: A recent Quinnipiac University poll had Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points nationally _ the best performance of the 2020 Democratic field.
State-by-state polling: A November poll from The New York Times/Siena College of registered voters showed Biden faring best against Trump in hypothetical general election matchups in key swing states. Biden captured Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona while breaking even with Trump in Michigan and falling 2 points shy in North Carolina.
Registered voters surveyed in those states said by 62% to 33% they'd prefer a candidate who would find common ground with Republicans than someone who would promise to fight for a bold progressive agenda. Biden, who has said on the campaign trail that he has been able to work in a bipartisan way even with segregationist senators, has steadily lost steam in liberal California.
Key constituencies: While Biden's support has dipped a bit in recent months in Iowa and New Hampshire, he remains an overwhelming favorite among African Americans, especially in South Carolina. He also has strong support among older and more conservative white voters.
In 2008, Barack Obama's appeal to black voters helped him become the first Democrat to win North Carolina since 1976. If Biden could match Obama's success, he could win key southern swing states like North Carolina that went for Trump in 2016.
Fundraising: Trump presently has a huge cash advantage over all the Democrats running for president, with $83.2 million in the bank. But Biden has the biggest gap of the top four candidates, with $9 million in cash on hand through the end of September.
At a Sept. 26 fundraiser in Los Angeles, Biden told attendees he had about 350,000 individual donors. A week earlier, Bernie Sanders' campaign announced it had received contributions from 1 million people.
One-on-one with Trump: While political experts differ on whether debate performances matter, they agree Biden has shown up shakily so far.
"You can throw a punch, then (Trump) punches you back and then you have to punch again," said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant based in Sacramento. "It's the last punch that's not as easy to do. Biden might not do as well with that."
Bottom line: With questionable showings in debates, limited money in the bank and smaller crowd sizes at his campaign events, there's reason to question whether Biden would be the most likely Democratic candidate to beat Trump. Even so, polling is undeniably on his side at this stage in the competition.
BERNIE SANDERS
Sanders, whose policy views on issues like health care and immigration often skew furthest to the left, argues his ideas will do the most to motivate Democrats to show up on Election Day. Still, many continue to doubt that a self-proclaimed "democratic socialist" can win the presidency.
In the candidate's words: "If we are to defeat Donald Trump, what you need is a campaign of energy and excitement, a campaign that brings millions of young people, of working class people, to the political process in a way that we have not seen before. I think, frankly, I am the candidate to generate that kind of energy, that kind of voter turnout." (Sanders interview with CNN in August)
National polling: Like Biden, Sanders routinely beats Trump in polls pitting the two against each other in a hypothetical general matchup. Sanders often beats Trump by a smaller margin than Biden but a larger margin than Sen. Elizabeth Warren. According to RealClearPolitics, Sanders beats Trump nationally in 52 out of 54 polls pitting the two against each other in a potential general election.
State-by-state polling: According to the New York Times/Siena College poll, Sanders and Trump at the moment would each capture three swing states. While Sanders wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump carries Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
Key constituencies: Sanders does best with poorer, younger and very liberal voters, as well as those who are Latino and less educated. He also has a small but loyal contingency of carryover supporters from the 2016 presidential primary. He believes many lower-propensity voters will show up in 2020, pushing him over the top against Trump.
Fundraising: In September, Sanders became the first candidate to receive contributions from 1 million people. It took him until January to reach that threshold in 2016, and Obama didn't cross the donor mark in his 2008 campaign until mid-February.
Sanders had $33.8 million still in the bank at the end of September, followed by Warren at $25.7 million and Pete Buttigieg at $23.4 million.
One-on-one with Trump: Sanders is loud, enthusiastic and authentic. If he avoids a shouting match, experts believe he can hold his own against Trump in a debate.
"If you accept the notion that Donald Trump is an unnerving president and that voters want something different and someone who is more consistent, rationale and thoughtful, I think that what Bernie has is passion," said Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. "I have not seen him stray very far from his message. Voters will describe him as very passionate about what he believes in."
Bottom line: Sanders is pushing for substantial policy changes and believes he's the best person to take on Trump, in part, because of the popularity of his ideas. While Sanders performs better against Trump than Warren in key swing states, his ideas may still be seen as too radical there.
ELIZABETH WARREN
Warren likes to cite her successful 2012 senatorial bid against Republican incumbent Sen. Scott Brown when the question of electability comes up. She says people doubted her back then and is confident she could silence those worries again in 2020.
In the candidate's words: "I remember when people said Barack Obama couldn't get elected. Shoot, I remember when people said Donald Trump couldn't get elected. But here's where we are. I get it. There is a lot at stake, and people are scared. But we can't choose a candidate we don't believe in just because we're too scared to do anything else." (Warren at July Democratic presidential debate)
National polling: According to RealClearPolitics, Warren outperforms Pete Buttigieg in a hypothetical matchup against Trump but trails Biden and Sanders. A Fox News poll released last month had Warren beating Trump by 5 percentage points, well short of Biden's 12-point lead. The more recent poll from Quinnipiac University had Warren beating Trump by 7 percentage points, while Biden led by 9 points.
A July NPR poll found that most Americans, including a majority of Democrats and Independents, like the idea of a so-called wealth tax, which would mandate a higher rate for those making more than $1 million. This bodes well for Warren, who has called for an added 2% tax on households for every dollar of network worth above $50 million and a 6% tax on every dollar of net worth above $1 billion.
State-by-state polling: The recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed weakness for Warren in key swing states. While she beats Trump in Arizona by 2 percentage points, she's either tied or losing to him in five other states.
Key constituencies: In California, Warren polls best with young people and white, college-educated homeowners. Across the country, she also has strong support from liberal Democratic voters and those making at least $50,000 a year. She is struggling to win over poorer and nonwhite voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Fundraising: As of September, Warren had raised more than $60 million across the country, including $4.2 million from California. Like other Democrats, she can't match Trump's $83.2 million war chest, but still has a sizable $25.7 million left in the bank.
One-on-one with Trump: California strategists don't see Warren delivering a debate performance that would be decisive.
"Elizabeth Warren probably brings the same things Clinton did in terms of being measured and focused on policy," said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant who is not a Trump supporter. "Hillary Clinton won every one of the debates (in 2016) and it didn't matter."
Bottom line: Although Warren performs well nationally, she remains in a difficult spot in several key swing states. While she's no stranger to an electoral fight, polls indicate Trump would have a decent chance of beating her if the election were held today.
PETE BUTTIGIEG
The 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., has repeatedly called for "generational change," often citing how he won't reach the current age of the current president until 2054. He also boasts that he'd be the first president with overseas military experience since George H.W. Bush.
In the candidate's words: "Every single time the Democratic Party has won ... in the last 50 years, it's been with somebody who came from outside Washington, and somebody who represented a new generation and a different set of ideas. By contrast, every time we've tried to go with a safe choice, the establishment choice, somebody who's been in Washington for a long time, every single time we have come up short." (Buttigieg in a September ABC News interview)
National polling: In November, Fox News had Buttigieg tied with Trump nationally at 41%. The same poll had Warren beating Trump by 5 points, Sanders winning by 8 points and Biden winning by 12 points. Quinnipiac had Buttigieg beating Trump by 5 points this month _ the worst showing of the top four candidates.
Polls have also tackled the question of whether the country is ready for a gay president, given that Buttigieg is openly gay. A Politico/Morning Consult survey in October found that 50% of registered voters said they were "definitely" or "probably" ready for a gay president. The same poll reported 46% of voters thought their neighbors were "definitely" or "probably" not ready.
State-by-state polling: Buttigieg wasn't compared with Trump in key swing states in the New York Times/Siena college poll. Regardless, Buttigieg's clearest pathway to the Democratic nomination runs through Iowa _ a key swing state that will be in play during the general election. Shortly before the latest debate, Buttigieg was ranked first in Iowa with 25% support, according to the Des Moines Register. Warren placed at a distant second at 16%, while Biden and Sanders tied for third at 15%. Even so, Iowans saw Biden as more electable. One in four respondents said Biden was almost certain to beat Trump, which is much higher than the 16% who said the same about Buttigieg.
Key constituencies: Across the country, Buttigieg polls well with college-educated white voters and older voters, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis, but struggles to attract black and Hispanic voters. His support among white voters has allowed him to build more support in Iowa _ a state that is 91% white, according to the U.S. Census. White, college educated voters represented a strong portion of Hillary Clinton's coalition in 2016.
Fundraising: Buttigieg reported having $23.4 million in available cash through the end of September. That was more than double the amount in the bank for Biden, but less than the cash on hand for Sanders and Warren.
The contributions reflect growing support for Buttigieg and could support his viability in 2020.
One-on-one with Trump: Politics experts vary on how Buttigieg might match up with Trump in a debate, with some suggesting he might come off as too "wonky" or less exciting than other Democrats. Others said those characteristics could help him establish a contrast with Trump that appeals to the moderate voters who could decide the election.
"He looks calm, knowledgeable and thoughtful," Sragow said. "When I see him on TV, I think a lot of voters who are looking for (someone) who can take on Trump will think he can hold his own."
Bottom line: While Buttigieg presently appears to be the least likely of the top four candidates to beat Trump in 2020, the race is far from over. He's looking to demonstrate his electability by winning Iowa.
