Leaders matter in politics. It doesn’t matter how good the policies, how broad-based and popular the party, or how strong the messaging — if the leaders are no good, that’s a problem.
The Coalition finds itself in an absolutely woeful position with its top personalities: Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, and Defence Minister/potential next Liberal leader Peter Dutton are all voter turn-offs.
Only Josh Frydenberg has any semblance of popular appeal. Why?
One of the powerful and insightful techniques when assessing leaders in political research is to ask young mothers who they’d like their children to grow up to be like. The answer is clear: Scott, Peter, Barnaby? Hell no! Josh? Yes!
Joyce is incredibly unpopular in mainstream metropolitan electorates. Many voters, particularly women, react in an almost viscerally negative way when his name is brought up. It is a toxic combination of his personal story, his extreme perceived policy positions — especially on climate — and his faux-bumpkin manner.
Dutton is just too Queensland for many voters in the southern states, and his tough, no-nonsense Queensland-copper persona sends a chill down the spines of Sydney and Melbourne. His defence posturing on China — seen as fear and warmongering by many voters — also raises questions about his stability and sense of responsibility.
Morrison is the least worst of the three. He does enjoy a reasonable degree of popular support, with an approval rating in the low- to mid-40s. But his disapproval rating is much higher, in the high 50s. Simply put, voters formed the view that over the course of the pandemic he has slowly failed. Putting it all together — the bushfires, vaccine fiasco, quarantine issues, the lump of coal, the cack-handled women’s response — tell the story: Morrison is on the nose.
Frydenberg is the only major Coalition personality with any degree of electoral appeal for many voters. If he survives the challenge in his seat, he represents the future of the Liberal Party post-election. A responsible, middle-of-the-road moderate, very much in the Menzian tradition.
