Welcome to the Thursday, February 16, Brew.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- More U.S. House members and state legislators sought other offices in 2022 than in 2020
- A look at how the 2024 presidential election timeline compares to 2020 and 2016
- Hear from Denver City Auditor candidates in their own words
More U.S. House members and state legislators sought other offices in 2022 than in 2020
In 2022, 17 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 534 state legislators ran for a different office than the one to which they were elected. That’s an increase from 2020, when Ballotpedia tracked 14 U.S. House members and 322 state legislators who ran for a different office than the one they held.
No members of the U.S. Senate sought other offices in 2022. That’s a decrease from 2020, when eight Senators sought to become the Democratic Party’s nominee for President of the United States.
U.S. House members
At the congressional level, nine Democratic members of the U.S. House and eight Republican members sought election to other offices in 2022. Both numbers are up from 2020, when seven Democrats and seven Republicans sought other offices. In 2018, ten Democrats and 11 Republicans did.
Democratic members who sought other offices in 2022 had a higher success rate than their Republican counterparts. Thirty-three percent of the Democratic members who sought other offices (three out of nine) won election to the offices they sought, while 67% lost either in the general election or in the primary. On the Republican side, 25% of the members who ran for other offices (two out of eight) won their elections, while 75% did not.
The figures above contrast with 2020, when Republican members who sought other offices were more successful than their Democratic counterparts. That year, three (43%) of the seven Republican members who ran for other offices won, while two (29%) of the Democratic members who ran won.
Overall, five (29%) U.S. House members who sought other offices won the election to the position they sought, eight (47%) were defeated in their party’s primary, and four (24%) advanced from their primaries and lost in the general election.
State legislators
At the state legislative level, 534 state legislators—304 Democrats and 230 Republicans—ran for other elected positions in 2022. That’s up from 2020, when 322 state legislators—including 158 Democrats and 162 Republicans—ran for other offices. In 2018, 185 Democrats and 274 Republicans did.
Democratic state legislators who ran for other offices in 2022 were more successful than their Republican counterparts. Fifty-six percent (128 out of 230) of Democratic state legislators who ran for another office this year won. In contrast, 48% (145 out of 304) of Republican state legislators who ran for another office were successful.
In 2020, Republican candidates were more successful than Democratic ones. Fifty-seven percent (92 out of 162) of Republican state legislators who ran for another office won election to a new position. In contrast, 42% (66 out of 158) of Democratic state legislators who ran for another office were successful.
Overall, 51% of all state legislators who sought other offices in 2022 won election to those positions. That’s up from 2020, when 49%of candidates won election to the positions they sought.
A look at how the 2024 presidential election timeline compares to 2020 and 2016
On Feb. 15, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley became the third noteworthy Republican candidate to officially announce their 2024 presidential campaign. Haley joined former President Donald Trump (R), who announced his candidacy on Nov. 15, 2022, and former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R), who announced on Nov. 11.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden (D) has not yet formally announced whether he intends to run for re-election.
As we mentioned in our Feb. 3 edition, the bulk of 2024 presidential candidate announcements will likely occur in the next few months. In the 2020 cycle, 87% (27) of the noteworthy candidates announced their campaigns by June 2019. And in the 2016 cycle, 77% (17) had by that time in 2015.
As the 2024 presidential candidate field continues to grow, let’s compare where we are now to where we were at this point four (and eight) years ago.
By Feb. 15, 2019, 12 noteworthy candidates had announced their presidential campaigns:
- Jan. 20, 2017: Donald Trump (R)
- Aug. 10, 2017: John Delaney (D)
- November 6, 2017: Andrew Yang (D)
- Jan. 1, 2019: Tulsi Gabbard (D)
- January 12, 2019: Julián Castro (D)
- Jan. 15, 2019: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
- Jan. 21, 2019: Kamala Harris (D)
- Jan. 23, 2019: Pete Buttigieg (D)
- Jan. 28, 2019: Marianne Williamson (D)
- Feb. 1, 2019: Cory Booker (D)
- Feb. 9, 2019: Elizabeth Warren (D)
- Feb. 12, 2019: Amy Klobuchar (D)
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (D) joined the field on Feb. 19, 2019. Joe Biden (D) would not announce until Apr. 25.
In the 2016 election cycle, no noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns by Feb. 15, 2015. Unlike the 2020 and 2024 cycles, the incumbent president in 2016, Barack Obama (D), was term-limited and could not run for re-election.
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was the first noteworthy candidate to announce his campaign in the 2016 cycle, doing so on Mar. 23, 2015. Hillary Clinton (D), the eventual Democratic nominee, announced her campaign on Apr. 12, 2015. Trump, the eventual Republican nominee, announced his on Jun. 16, 2015.
While the presidential candidate field was still in flux at this point four and eight years ago, the campaign season itself was in full swing. Here’s a selection of items that were featured in our presidential news briefing newsletter on Feb. 15, 2019:
- Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld launched a presidential exploratory committee to challenge President Donald Trump. In prepared remarks for the “Politics & Eggs” breakfast in New Hampshire, Weld criticized President Donald Trump and said he “cannot sit quietly on the sidelines any longer.”
- Sen. Kamala Harris was endorsed by Rep. Barbara Lee (D), a former chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus.
- The Democratic National Committee announced new polling and fundraising criteria for participation in debates beginning in June. To qualify to participate in the Democratic primary debates, a candidate must have either reached 1 percent support in three separate polls or met a grassroots fundraising threshold. For the first debate, the threshold was donations from 65,000 people in at least 20 states.
- Flashback from Feb. 15, 2015: Marist released a poll of early voting states Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, that showed seven of 11 potential Republican presidential candidates had received double-digit support in at least one state. No candidate received more than 20 percent in any state.
Hear from Denver city auditor candidates in their own words
If you’re a regular reader of the Daily Brew, then you’ve seen previous stories about our Candidate Connection survey. We created it to help voters better understand what motivates their candidates and what their priorities are. We believe this information helps voters make informed decisions.
In races where all candidates complete the survey, voters get a unique opportunity to compare and contrast the candidates’ backgrounds, positions, and objectives. So, in today’s edition, we’re glad to feature survey responses from our first race in 2022 to get a 100% completion rate—the April 4 election for Denver’s City Auditor!
Incumbent Tim O’Brien and Erik Clarke are running in the officially non-partisan election. Below are excerpts from O’Brien’s and Clarke’s answers to the following question: Please list below 3 key messages of your campaign. What are the main points you want voters to remember about your goals for your time in office?
O’Brien:
- I AM QUALIFIED • Certified Public Accountant • Designation of Chartered Financial Analyst • Designation of Chartered Global Management Accountant
- I AM EXPERIENCED • Denver Auditor for7+ years; Colorado State Auditor for 11+ years • Over 40 years of auditing and accounting • Produced over 1,100 audits where my name is at the top of the letterhead and my signature at the end of the report
- I AM INDEPENDENT • Free from any conflicts of interest • Has intellectual honesty • Always maintains an attitude of impartiality
Clarke:
- Erik has a record of success on issues that matter to Denver residents, like combatting homelessness, opportunity for all, public safety, healthcare, and construction oversight.
- Erik has a plan to modernize the Denver Auditor’s Office and focus on driving results.
- Erik is an experienced professional in the field who will bring new leadership and fresh ideas to this office.
In the 2019 general election for city auditor, O’Brien ran unopposed.
In 2022, Ballotpedia covered 527 elections in which all of the candidates participated in our survey. That was up from 2020, when 356 elections had all candidates participating, and 2018, when 39 elections saw full candidate participation.
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