Welcome to the Thursday, February 8, 2024, Brew.
By: Juan Garcia de Paredes
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- More seats were open in nation’s largest cities and school districts than in the previous three cycles
- Two new vacancies announced in state supreme courts in January
- The Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey discusses the race for the U.S. House in the latest episode of On the Ballot
More seats were open in nation’s largest cities and school districts than in the previous three cycles
Ballotpedia has published comprehensive analyses on all school board elections in the 100 most populous cities in the U.S. and the 200 largest districts by enrollment since 2020. Just last month, we released our analysis of those school board elections for 2023.
Our coverage is growing. In 2023, we expanded it to include all school board elections in 10 states—Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. You can check out our coverage of last year’s elections in these states here.
For the moment, however, let’s dive into our 2023 analysis of those districts in the 100 most populous cities and the 200 largest districts by enrollment.
This analysis covered school board elections in 192 school districts across 29 states. These districts collectively had more than 5.3 million students enrolled in 2022—about 11% of the nearly 50 million students in public K-12 schools nationwide that year.
Here are the highlights:
- A total of 986 candidates ran for 514 seats. Of those, 318 were incumbents and 668 were non-incumbents.
- The average number of candidates running per seat was the lowest in four years.
- More seats were open in 2023 than in the previous three cycles.
- 82.39% of the incumbents who ran for re-election won—a higher win rate than in the previous three cycles
- Texas had the most seats up for election with 173. Colorado had the second-most with 47.
- Four states—Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina—tied for the fewest seats up for election with one each. Alaska, Arkansas, and New York had the second-fewest, with two each.
Average number of candidates
An average of 1.92 candidates ran per seat in 2023, the least since 2020.
Open and unopposed seats
Sixty-two percent of incumbents ran for re-election, fewer than in the previous three cycles. In 2022, 68% of incumbents ran for re-election. Sixty-five percent did so in 2021, and 74% did in 2020.
This meant there were more open seats in 2023 (38%) compared to 2022 (32%), 2021 (35%), and 2020 (26%).
Additionally, candidates ran unopposed for 29% of the seats in our scope. That’s compared to 25% in 2022, 24% in 2021, and 35.5% in 2020.
Incumbents
Of the 318 school board incumbents who ran for re-election, 262 won—a win rate of 82.39%. That’s higher than in 2022, when incumbents had a win rate of 78.29%, and 2021, when the win rate was 78.51%. It was also slightly higher than 2020, when the win rate was 81.72%.
In 13 states—Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington—all school board incumbents who ran for re-election in our scope won. In Georgia and New York, only half of incumbents who ran for another term were re-elected.
In the districts we covered in California and South Carolina, no incumbents ran for re-election.
Incumbents also won a lower percentage of all the school board seats in our scope in 2023 (50.97%) than in 2022 and 2020. The percentage was the same percentage as in 2021.
Methods of election
Of the 192 districts we covered last year, 190 used nonpartisan elections and two—in Louisiana and Pennsylvania—used partisan elections.
Nationwide, more than 90% of districts hold nonpartisan elections. In four states, school board members are elected in partisan elections. In five states, state laws give school boards the option of having partisan or nonpartisan elections.
Click the link below to read the full report on our 2023 school board coverage. You can also check out our latest edition of Hall Pass, in which we cover this and other stories driving school board politics and governance.
Two new vacancies announced in state supreme courts in January
Since Jan. 1, there have been 10 state supreme court vacancies (including upcoming ones) in eight of the 29 states where replacement justices are appointed instead of elected. Retirements caused all 10 vacancies.
In this month’s state supreme court vacancy update, Ballotpedia tracked announced retirements, nominations, appointments, confirmations, and the swearing-in of justices from Dec. 21 to Jan. 31.
Here’s what happened.
Retirements:
In January 2024, one state supreme court justice in Massachusetts retired, while two Minnesota justices announced their retirements:
- On Jan. 11, Justice Barry Anderson announced his intention to retire from the Minnesota Supreme Court on May 10, 2024, months before his 70th birthday. Anderson, the last remaining Republican appointee on the court, must retire due to reaching Minnesota’s mandatory retirement age.
- On Jan. 16, Margaret Chutich announced she will retire on July 31, 2024. Gov. Mark Dayton (D) appointed Chutich in 2016. Chutich was the first openly LGBTQ justice to serve on the court. Anderson and Chutich’s retirements will give Gov. Tim Walz (D) his fourth and fifth opportunities to appoint a justice to the Minnesota Supreme Court.
- On Jan. 12, Justice Elspeth Cypher stepped down from the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court. Gov. Charlie Baker (R) appointed Cypher in February 2017.
Candidates nominated/appointed:
On Dec. 26, 2023, the Wyoming Judicial Nominating Commission released a list of three nominees for the upcoming vacancy on the Wyoming Supreme Court. The list of nominees included:
- Sixth District Court Judge Stuart S. Healy III,
- Attorney and professor Robert Jarosh, and,
- Former state Rep. Tim Stubson (R).
On Jan. 19, Gov. Mark Gordon (R) appointed Jarosh, who will take office on March 27.
Additionally, on Jan. 5, the Tennessee Governor’s Council for Judicial Appointments released a list of three finalists for the upcoming supreme court vacancy in that state. The list includes:
- Court of Criminal Appeals Judge J. Ross Dyer,
- Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Camille McMullen, and
- Thirtieth Circuit Court Judge Mary L. Wagner.
Gov. Bill Lee (R) will nominate one of the finalists from the list to the Tennessee Supreme Court. Lee’s nominee will replace Roger A. Page. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) nominated Page to the court in 2016.
Nominees confirmed:
On Jan. 10, the Massachusetts Governor’s Council confirmed Elizabeth Dewar to the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court. Dewar is Gov. Maura Healey‘s (D) first nominee to the state’s highest court.
Justices sworn in:
Dewar was sworn in on Jan. 12. She replaced Elspeth Cypher, who left the court on the same day. Dewar is currently the only justice on the court former Gov. Charlie Baker (R) did not appoint.
Four other justices were sworn into office in January:
- Melissa Beth Countway was sworn into the New Hampshire Supreme Court on Jan. 2. She replaced Justice Gary Hicks, who left office in November 2023 due to reaching New Hampshire’s mandatory retirement age. Countway is Gov. Chris Sununu‘s (R) fifth nominee to the five-member court.
- Cynthia Meyer was sworn into the Idaho Supreme Court on Jan. 5. Meyer replaced John R. Stegner, who, in his retirement announcement, cited his desire to return to private practice. Meyer is Gov. Brad Little‘s (R) second appointment to the five-member state supreme court. Meyer will serve the remainder of Stegner’s unexpired term, which ends in January 2027, and will be eligible to run for a full term in 2026.
- Two justices were sworn into the Hawaii Supreme Court on Jan. 12: Lisa M. Ginoza and Vladimir P. Devens. Ginoza and Devens replaced Michael Wilson and Paula Nakayama, respectively. Both outgoing justices reached Hawaii’s mandatory retirement age last year. Ginoza and Devens were Gov. Joshua Green‘s (D) first and second appointments to the state’s highest court.
Overall, six of the 10 vacancies this year are in states where Democratic officials are responsible for filling vacancies. Four are in states where Republican officials have that responsibility.
From 2019 to 2023, there were 109 supreme court vacancies in states where replacement justices are appointed instead of elected. That’s an average of 22 vacancies per year.
There are 344 state supreme court justices serving in 52 supreme courts nationwide. Each state has at least one supreme court, or court of last resort. Oklahoma and Texas both have two courts of last resort, one for civil appeals and one for criminal appeals.
Eighty-two state supreme court seats in 33 states are up for election in 2024. Nonpartisan justices hold 63 of those, Republican justices hold 14, and Democratic justices hold five.
Click the link below to learn more about this year’s state supreme court vacancies.
The Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey discusses the race for the U.S. House in the latest episode of On the Ballot
In this week’s episode of On the Ballot, our weekly podcast, our host, Victoria Rose, sits down with Political Analyst Erin Covey, who covers the US House of Representatives for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
In the episode, Erin and Victoria take a look at the trends, races, and redistricting highlights that could determine the House of Representatives’ balance of power in November. Erin also discusses Cook’s rating system and dives into key toss-up races in California, North Carolina, Texas, and elsewhere. Plus, she shares her insights on how parties potentially choosing their presidential nominees earlier this year might affect interest in smaller races.
To listen to our full conversation with Erin Covey, click the link below!
And remember, new episodes of On the Ballot drop every Thursday afternoon. If you’re reading this on the morning of Feb. 8, there’s still time to subscribe to On the Ballot on your preferred podcast app and catch this week’s release!Keep reading
